比特币的底线：链上数据阐明了关键的宏观支持

随着比特币经历长期熊市，尖端的链上数据提供了关键的见解，分析师确定了关键的宏观底部和明智资金积累的迹象。

As Bitcoin navigates a prolonged bear market, on-chain data emerges as a beacon, with analysts pinpointing a critical macro bottom for the leading cryptocurrency.

随着比特币在漫长的熊市中航行，链上数据成为灯塔，分析师指出了领先加密货币的关键宏观底部。

The Hunt for Bitcoin's 'Ultimate Support'

寻找比特币的“终极支持”

For six arduous months, the Bitcoin market has been grappling with bearish sentiment. Yet, amidst the volatility, a critical piece of analysis from renowned market expert Ali Martinez, leveraging the Cumulative Value Days Destroyed (CVDD) on-chain metric, offers a compelling perspective. Martinez has identified an "ultimate support" level for Bitcoin at $47,960. This isn't just a random number; the CVDD metric tracks the price point where long-term holders typically distribute their coins, establishing a new, robust cost basis that new entrants are likely to defend fiercely. With Bitcoin currently hovering around the $66,000 mark, this analysis suggests there might be further downside before hitting this historically significant floor – a level that has consistently preceded major price rebounds.

在艰难的六个月里，比特币市场一直在努力应对看跌情绪。然而，在波动之中，著名市场专家 Ali Martinez 利用链上累积价值天数 (CVDD) 指标进行的一项重要分析提供了令人信服的观点。马丁内斯确定比特币的“最终支撑”水平为 47,960 美元。这不仅仅是一个随机数，而是一个随机数。 CVDD 指标追踪长期持有者通常分配代币的价格点，建立了新的、强大的成本基础，新进入者可能会激烈捍卫。由于比特币目前徘徊在 66,000 美元大关附近，这项分析表明，在触及这一具有历史意义的底部之前，可能还会有进一步的下跌——这一水平一直先于价格大幅反弹。

Whales Accumulate, Bitcoin Breaks Free

鲸鱼积累，比特币挣脱束缚

Adding another layer to the narrative, data from cryptocurrency analysis platform Santiment reveals intriguing market dynamics. Despite global uncertainties, Bitcoin is demonstrating remarkable resilience, charting its own course and decoupling from traditional markets like the S&P 500. While stocks have dipped, Bitcoin has shown an upward trajectory, reinforcing its "digital gold" appeal during times of geopolitical flux. More importantly, Santiment's on-chain data highlights a significant trend: "whale and shark" wallets—those holding between 10 and 10,000 BTC—have resumed accumulation. The sheer number of wallets holding 100 or more BTC has even reached a historic record, surpassing 20,000. This influx of large-scale capital, coupled with a 365-day Market Value – Realized Value (MVRV) ratio indicating long-term investors are currently at a loss, suggests that current price levels present a comparatively lower risk entry point.

来自加密货币分析平台 Santiment 的数据揭示了有趣的市场动态，为故事增添了另一层内容。尽管全球存在不确定性，比特币仍表现出非凡的弹性，制定了自己的路线，并与标准普尔 500 指数等传统市场脱钩。虽然股市下跌，但比特币却显示出上涨轨迹，在地缘政治动荡时期增强了其“数字黄金”的吸引力。更重要的是，Santiment 的链上数据突显了一个重要趋势：“鲸鱼和鲨鱼”钱包（持有 10 至 10,000 BTC 的钱包）已经恢复积累。持有 100 个或更多 BTC 的钱包数量甚至达到了历史记录，超过 20,000 个。大规模资本的涌入，加上365天的市值-已实现价值（MVRV）比率表明长期投资者目前处于亏损状态，表明当前的价格水平呈现出相对较低的风险切入点。

Miner Sales vs. Smart Money Moves

矿工销售与明智的资金流动

While the market absorbs news of public Bitcoin miners, such as Riot Platforms, liquidating substantial portions of their BTC reserves (Riot offloaded 3,778 BTC in Q1 2026), the broader picture painted by on-chain metrics offers a counter-narrative. The consistent accumulation by large entities suggests that while miner selling might exert some short-term pressure, the underlying demand from strategic, long-term players remains robust. This dynamic hints at a potential battleground between short-term supply pressure and foundational, long-term demand as the market inches closer to a definitive macro bottom.

虽然市场吸收了 Riot 平台等公共比特币矿商清算其大部分 BTC 储备的消息（Riot 在 2026 年第一季度出售了 3,778 BTC），但链上指标描绘的更广泛的情况却提供了相反的叙述。大型实体的持续增持表明，虽然矿商抛售可能会带来一些短期压力，但战略性长期参与者的潜在需求仍然强劲。随着市场逐渐接近明确的宏观底部，这种动态暗示着短期供应压力与基本长期需求之间的潜在战场。

The Big Picture: Patience and Perspective

大局观：耐心和远见

My take? The combination of a mathematically derived "ultimate support" from CVDD and the undeniable signals of significant accumulation by deep-pocketed investors paints a powerful picture. It suggests that while we might still navigate some choppy waters, with a potential dip towards that $47,960 mark, the smart money is already positioning itself. This isn't just about riding the waves; it's about understanding the deep currents. Bitcoin's emerging role as a digital haven, coupled with transparent on-chain signals, provides a clearer roadmap than ever before for those looking beyond the daily price swings.

我的看法是？来自 CVDD 的数学推导的“终极支撑”与财力雄厚的投资者大量增持的不可否认的信号相结合，描绘了一幅强有力的图景。这表明，虽然我们可能仍会经历一些波涛汹涌的水域，并有可能跌向 47,960 美元的大关，但聪明的资金已经做好了定位。这不仅仅是乘风破浪；这是关于了解深海潮流。比特币作为数字避风港的新兴角色，加上透明的链上信号，为那些关注每日价格波动之外的人们提供了比以往更清晰的路线图。

Until Next Time, Fellow Travelers!

各位旅友，下次再见！

So, while the market might be throwing its usual curveballs, keeping an eye on these on-chain breadcrumbs could give you the edge. After all, in the concrete jungle of crypto, smart money leaves a trail, and sometimes, that trail leads straight to the macro bottom. Stay sharp, New York!

因此，尽管市场可能会出现通常的曲线球，但密切关注这些链上面包屑可能会给您带来优势。毕竟，在加密货币的水泥丛林中，聪明的资金会留下痕迹，有时，这条痕迹会直接通向宏观底部。保持敏锐，纽约！