比特幣底部？在市場波動中購買信號閃爍

比特幣最近的“購買”信號，加上超售的條件，暗示了潛在的底部。這是您一直在等待的蘸醬嗎？

Bitcoin Bottom? Buy Signal Flashes Amidst Market Volatility

比特幣底部？在市場波動中購買信號閃爍

The Bitcoin market is buzzing with anticipation as a short-term 'buy' signal emerges, suggesting a possible bottom amidst recent volatility. Is this the opportune moment to dive in?

隨著短期“買入”信號的出現，比特幣市場引起了人們的期待，這表明最近的波動性可能是底部的。這是潛水的合適時機嗎？

Decoding the 'Buy' Signal

解碼“購買”信號

According to on-chain analyst Frank (@FrankAFetter) from Vibe Capital Management, Bitcoin has flashed a short-term 'buy' signal, reminiscent of patterns observed during previous swing lows at $49,000 and $74,000. This signal is based on the short-term holder market-value-to-realized-value (STH-MVRV) ratio combined with Bollinger Bands, indicating that newer coins are trading at statistically low valuations compared to their cost basis.

根據Vibe Capital Management的鍊鍊分析師Frank（@frankafetter）的說法，比特幣閃爍了短期的“買入”信號，讓人聯想到以前的鞦韆低點觀察到的模式，價格為49,000美元，$ 74,000。該信號基於短期持有人的市場價值 - 實現價值（STH-MVRV）的比率與布林樂隊相結合，表明與成本基礎相比，更新的硬幣在統計上的估值低。

Oversold Conditions: A Sign of Exhaustion?

超售條件：疲憊的跡象？

The STH-MVRV Bollinger oscillator has dipped into oversold territory, aligning with past instances where selling pressure reached a local peak. Additionally, the STH-SOPR (spent-output profit ratio) remains below 1.0, signaling that recent buyers are currently realizing losses. Frank notes that short-term holders, often those who bought at higher prices, are feeling the pain, suggesting a potential exhaustion of selling pressure.

STH-MVRV Bollinger振盪器已經浸入了超賣領土，與過去的實例相符，在過去的情況下，銷售壓力達到了當地的山峰。此外，STH-SOPR（用過支出的利潤率）仍低於1.0，這表明最近的買家目前正在實現損失。弗蘭克指出，短期持有人，通常是那些以較高價格購買的人會感到痛苦，這表明銷售壓力可能會耗盡。

Derivatives Market and Macro Context

衍生品市場和宏觀環境

The derivatives market is also showing signs of a shift. Long positions have been deleveraged consistently, indicating a decrease in leveraged bullish bets. Frank is now watching for a 'flip,' where traders, giving up on long positions, start shorting with leverage, potentially fueling a relief rally. Furthermore, the macro context could be supportive, with gold hitting new highs, potentially foreshadowing a broader 'debasement trade' that could benefit Bitcoin.

衍生品市場還顯示出轉變的跡象。長位置始終如一地進行，表明槓桿的看漲賭注減少。弗蘭克（Frank）現在正在關注“翻轉”，在那裡，交易者放棄長位置，開始以槓桿作用的短路，有可能加劇救濟集會。此外，宏觀環境可能會提供支持，因為黃金擊中了新的高點，並可能預示著可能受益於比特幣的更廣泛的“貶低貿易”。

Risk Markers and Support Levels

風險標記和支持水平

Frank identifies the short-term holder realized price at $108,800 as a key level. A breakdown below this level could lead to further tests toward the 200-day moving average around $101,000. This layered support map frames the oversold print as a tactical signal within a longer-term uptrend.

弗蘭克將短期持有人確定為108,800美元的價格是一個關鍵水平。低於此水平的故障可能會導致200天移動平均值的進一步測試約為101,000美元。該分層的支撐地圖將超售的打印框起來是在長期上升趨勢中的戰術信號。

Is This the Bottom?

這是底部嗎？

The confluence of these signals suggests a potentially strong buying opportunity. Whether history repeats itself depends on spot demand emerging above the short-term cost basis and whether aggressive shorting provides fuel for a squeeze. As Frank puts it, 'If we are in a bull market—and I believe we are—this is the kind of behavior that typically sets the stage for the next leg higher.'

這些信號的匯合表明，潛在的購買機會。歷史是否重複取決於現場需求的出現，高於短期成本基礎，而積極的短路是否為擠壓提供了燃料。正如弗蘭克（Frank）所說，“如果我們處於牛市，我相信我們是 - 這種行為通常為下一個腿較高的舞台設定舞台。”

Final Thoughts

最後的想法

So, is this the bottom? Only time will tell. But with Bitcoin trading around $111,382, it might be time to keep a close eye on the charts. Maybe it's time to add a little more to your bag. Or, you know, just keep HODLing. Whatever floats your boat, captain!

那麼，這是底部嗎？只有時間會證明。但是，隨著比特幣的交易約為111,382美元，可能是時候密切關注圖表了。也許是時候該在您的包裡增加一點了。或者，您知道，只要繼續努力。船長，什麼漂浮在您的船上！