比特币底部？在市场波动中购买信号闪烁

比特币最近的“购买”信号，加上超售的条件，暗示了潜在的底部。这是您一直在等待的蘸酱吗？

Bitcoin Bottom? Buy Signal Flashes Amidst Market Volatility

比特币底部？在市场波动中购买信号闪烁

The Bitcoin market is buzzing with anticipation as a short-term 'buy' signal emerges, suggesting a possible bottom amidst recent volatility. Is this the opportune moment to dive in?

随着短期“买入”信号的出现，比特币市场引起了人们的期待，这表明最近的波动性可能是底部的。这是潜水的合适时机吗？

Decoding the 'Buy' Signal

解码“购买”信号

According to on-chain analyst Frank (@FrankAFetter) from Vibe Capital Management, Bitcoin has flashed a short-term 'buy' signal, reminiscent of patterns observed during previous swing lows at $49,000 and $74,000. This signal is based on the short-term holder market-value-to-realized-value (STH-MVRV) ratio combined with Bollinger Bands, indicating that newer coins are trading at statistically low valuations compared to their cost basis.

根据Vibe Capital Management的链链分析师Frank（@frankafetter）的说法，比特币闪烁了短期的“买入”信号，让人联想到以前的秋千低点观察到的模式，价格为49,000美元，$ 74,000。该信号基于短期持有人的市场价值 - 实现价值（STH-MVRV）的比率与布林乐队相结合，表明与成本基础相比，更新的硬币在统计上的估值低。

Oversold Conditions: A Sign of Exhaustion?

超售条件：疲惫的迹象？

The STH-MVRV Bollinger oscillator has dipped into oversold territory, aligning with past instances where selling pressure reached a local peak. Additionally, the STH-SOPR (spent-output profit ratio) remains below 1.0, signaling that recent buyers are currently realizing losses. Frank notes that short-term holders, often those who bought at higher prices, are feeling the pain, suggesting a potential exhaustion of selling pressure.

STH-MVRV Bollinger振荡器已经浸入了超卖领土，与过去的实例相符，在过去的情况下，销售压力达到了当地的山峰。此外，STH-SOPR（用过支出的利润率）仍低于1.0，这表明最近的买家目前正在实现损失。弗兰克指出，短期持有人，通常是那些以较高价格购买的人会感到痛苦，这表明销售压力可能会耗尽。

Derivatives Market and Macro Context

衍生品市场和宏观环境

The derivatives market is also showing signs of a shift. Long positions have been deleveraged consistently, indicating a decrease in leveraged bullish bets. Frank is now watching for a 'flip,' where traders, giving up on long positions, start shorting with leverage, potentially fueling a relief rally. Furthermore, the macro context could be supportive, with gold hitting new highs, potentially foreshadowing a broader 'debasement trade' that could benefit Bitcoin.

衍生品市场还显示出转变的迹象。长位置始终如一地进行，表明杠杆的看涨赌注减少。弗兰克（Frank）现在正在关注“翻转”，在那里，交易者放弃长位置，开始以杠杆作用的短路，有可能加剧救济集会。此外，宏观环境可能会提供支持，因为黄金击中了新的高点，并可能预示着可能受益于比特币的更广泛的“贬低贸易”。

Risk Markers and Support Levels

风险标记和支持水平

Frank identifies the short-term holder realized price at $108,800 as a key level. A breakdown below this level could lead to further tests toward the 200-day moving average around $101,000. This layered support map frames the oversold print as a tactical signal within a longer-term uptrend.

弗兰克将短期持有人确定为108,800美元的价格是一个关键水平。低于此水平的故障可能会导致200天移动平均值的进一步测试约为101,000美元。该分层的支撑地图将超售的打印框起来是在长期上升趋势中的战术信号。

Is This the Bottom?

这是底部吗？

The confluence of these signals suggests a potentially strong buying opportunity. Whether history repeats itself depends on spot demand emerging above the short-term cost basis and whether aggressive shorting provides fuel for a squeeze. As Frank puts it, 'If we are in a bull market—and I believe we are—this is the kind of behavior that typically sets the stage for the next leg higher.'

这些信号的汇合表明，潜在的购买机会。历史是否重复取决于现场需求的出现，高于短期成本基础，而积极的短路是否为挤压提供了燃料。正如弗兰克（Frank）所说，“如果我们处于牛市，我相信我们是 - 这种行为通常为下一个腿较高的舞台设定舞台。”

Final Thoughts

最后的想法

So, is this the bottom? Only time will tell. But with Bitcoin trading around $111,382, it might be time to keep a close eye on the charts. Maybe it's time to add a little more to your bag. Or, you know, just keep HODLing. Whatever floats your boat, captain!

那么，这是底部吗？只有时间会证明。但是，随着比特币的交易约为111,382美元，可能是时候密切关注图表了。也许是时候该在您的包里增加一点了。或者，您知道，只要继续努力。船长，什么漂浮在您的船上！