比特幣、熊市和鯨魚：在加密貨幣海洋中航行

解讀比特幣熊市，重點關注鯨魚行為和製度轉變。我們是否正在走向另一次深度凍結，或者投資者的態度是否已經成熟？

Bitcoin, Bear Markets, and Whales: Navigating the Crypto Seas

比特幣、熊市和鯨魚：在加密貨幣海洋中航行

Bitcoin's always a rollercoaster, right? Understanding how the big players – the whales – act during bear markets is crucial. Are we looking at a repeat of the past, or are things different this time around?

比特幣總是像過山車一樣，對吧？了解鯨魚等大玩家在熊市期間的行為至關重要。我們是在重蹈過去的覆轍，還是這次情況有所不同？

Whales and Their Wallets: A Deep Dive

鯨魚和他們的錢包：深入探討

According to recent on-chain analysis by Murphy, whale wallets (those holding at least 100 BTC) control a whopping 61% of the circulating supply. That's a staggering 12.17 million BTC! Interestingly, this level is similar to the peak of the 2021 bull market and significantly higher than the 2017 cycle. This shows just how concentrated Bitcoin holdings are and how much influence these whales can exert.

根據 Murphy 最近的鏈上分析，鯨魚錢包（持有至少 100 BTC 的錢包）控制著高達 61% 的流通供應量。這是驚人的 1217 萬比特幣！有趣的是，這個水平與2021年牛市的峰值相似，並且明顯高於2017年周期。這表明比特幣持有量有多麼集中，以及這些鯨魚可以發揮多大的影響力。

Past Bear Markets: A Whale of a Tale

過去的熊市：鯨魚的故事

Looking back, whale behavior during previous bear markets was pretty dramatic. In 2017-2018, they were losing an average of $1 billion per day as the price corrected. Ouch! The 2021-2022 period was even more brutal, with losses reaching $3 billion in a single day during the May 19, 2021, crash, and $4 billion during the Luna debacle. These massive sell-offs definitely signaled the end of the bull run.

回顧過去，鯨魚在之前的熊市中的行為相當引人注目。 2017-2018 年，隨著價格調整，他們平均每天損失 10 億美元。哎喲! 2021 年至 2022 年期間的情況更加殘酷，2021 年 5 月 19 日的崩盤事件中，單日損失達到 30 億美元，而 Luna 崩潰期間的損失則達到 40 億美元。這些大規模拋售無疑標誌著牛市的結束。

This Time It's Different?

這次不一樣？

But here's where it gets interesting. Murphy suggests the current cycle might be different. While there was a significant $2 billion single-day loss on August 5, 2024, subsequent losses during events like Trump's tariff wars were much smaller. Even during the recent crash on October 11, 2025, whales showed remarkable composure, losing only $400 million. This indicates a possible shift in investor psychology, suggesting a long, deep bear market like the past might not be in the cards this time.

但這就是有趣的地方。墨菲認為當前的周期可能會有所不同。雖然 2024 年 8 月 5 日單日損失高達 20 億美元，但隨後特朗普關稅戰等事件造成的損失要小得多。即使在 2025 年 10 月 11 日發生的最近的事故中，鯨魚也表現出了非凡的冷靜，僅損失了 4 億美元。這表明投資者心理可能發生轉變，表明這次可能不會出現像過去那樣長期、深度的熊市。

Risk-Off Days and Market Turbulence

避險日和市場動盪

Of course, Bitcoin doesn't exist in a vacuum. Broader market sentiment, especially regarding risk-off events like concerns about US regional banks or shifts in global trade policy, can send ripples through the crypto world. We saw this recently when Bitcoin briefly hit a three-month low, dropping more than 6% in a week. As Simon Peters from eToro noted, a drop below $108,000 triggered significant liquidations in the Bitcoin perpetual futures market.

當然，比特幣並不存在於真空中。更廣泛的市場情緒，尤其是有關美國地區銀行擔憂或全球貿易政策變化等避險事件的情緒，可能會在加密貨幣世界中引發漣漪。我們最近看到了這一點，當時比特幣短暫觸及三個月低點，一周內下跌超過 6%。正如 eToro 的 Simon Peters 指出的那樣，跌破 108,000 美元引發了比特幣永續期貨市場的大規模清算。

DAT Companies and Bear Market Strategies

DAT 公司和熊市策略

Beyond just Bitcoin, companies in the broader Digital Asset Treasury (DAT) space are also adapting to potential bear markets. Bit Digital CEO Sam Tabar emphasizes the importance of avoiding asset-backed debt and focusing on long-term strategies, like diversifying into Ethereum and even artificial intelligence. He highlights the risks of secured debt, especially when asset values plummet. The move towards unsecured debt and diversification signifies a maturing approach to managing crypto treasuries.

除了比特幣之外，更廣泛的數字資產庫（DAT）領域的公司也在適應潛在的熊市。 Bit Digital 首席執行官 Sam Tabar 強調了避免資產支持債務並專注於長期戰略的重要性，例如多元化進入以太坊甚至人工智能領域。他強調了擔保債務的風險，尤其是當資產價值暴跌時。無擔保債務和多元化的發展標誌著加密貨幣金庫管理方法的成熟。

Whales in Action: Recent Moves

鯨魚在行動：最近的舉動

Recent on-chain activity confirms that whales and institutions are actively reshuffling their positions. From mysterious entities like “7 Brothers” buying ETH to asset giants like BlackRock depositing and withdrawing significant amounts, the market is constantly in motion. Even a hacker got caught in the volatility, selling ETH at a loss! These real-time examples underscore the dynamic nature of the crypto market and the constant maneuvering of its largest players.

最近的鏈上活動證實了鯨魚和機構正在積極重新洗牌。從像“七兄弟”這樣購買 ETH 的神秘實體，到像貝萊德這樣的資產巨頭存入和提取大量資金，市場一直在變化。就連黑客也陷入了波動，虧本出售 ETH！這些實時例子強調了加密貨幣市場的動態本質以及其最大參與者的不斷操縱。

So, What's the Takeaway?

那麼，要點是什麼？

While past bear markets were characterized by massive whale sell-offs, recent data suggests a possible shift in investor behavior. This doesn't mean Bitcoin is immune to market downturns, but it could indicate a more mature and resilient ecosystem. Keep an eye on those whales, but also consider the broader economic landscape and the evolving strategies of companies in the crypto space.

雖然過去熊市的特點是鯨魚大規模拋售，但最近的數據表明投資者行為可能發生轉變。這並不意味著比特幣不受市場低迷的影響，但它可能表明一個更加成熟和有彈性的生態系統。密切關注這些鯨魚，但也要考慮更廣泛的經濟格局和加密貨幣領域公司不斷發展的戰略。

Alright, crypto enthusiasts, stay frosty and remember: HODL...responsibly! 😉

好吧，加密貨幣愛好者，保持冷靜並記住：HODL......負責任！ 😉