比特幣的古代供應：富達數字資產聚焦於一場稀缺革命

富達數字資產顯示，比特幣的“古代供應”的增長速度比開採新硬幣的速度快，這表明潛在的供應壓縮和價格上漲。

Bitcoin's supply dynamics are undergoing a fascinating shift, according to groundbreaking research from Fidelity Digital Assets. For the first time ever, the amount of Bitcoin untouched for a decade or more—dubbed 'ancient supply'—is growing faster than new Bitcoins are being mined. This trend, combined with increasing institutional interest, is setting the stage for a potential supply squeeze and, dare we say, maybe even a million-dollar Bitcoin?

根據Fidelity Digital Assets的開創性研究，比特幣的供應動態正在發生令人著迷的轉變。有史以來第一次，比特幣數十年或更長時間（被稱為“古代供應”）的數量比開採新的比特幣的速度快。這種趨勢加上越來越多的機構利益，正在為潛在的供應壓縮奠定基礎，我們敢說，甚至可能是一百萬美元的比特幣？

Ancient Supply Overtakes New Mining

古代供應超過了新採礦

Fidelity's analysis reveals that around 566 Bitcoins per day are entering the ancient supply category, while the daily mining reward is only 450 BTC after the 2024 halving. That's a pretty big deal. We're talking about a significant shift in how Bitcoin is distributed and held.

富達的分析表明，每天約有566個比特幣進入古老的供應類別，而在2024年減半之後，每日採礦獎勵僅為450 BTC。這是一件大事。我們正在談論比特幣分發和持有的重大轉變。

A $360 Billion Sleeping Giant

一個耗資3600億美元的睡眠巨人

The numbers are mind-boggling. Since January 1, 2019, nearly 3.4 million Bitcoins have joined the ranks of the ultra-long-term holders. At a hypothetical Bitcoin price of $107,000 (as of June 9, 2025, according to the report), this ancient supply is worth over $360 billion! It's like a giant, slumbering dragon guarding a mountain of digital gold.

這些數字令人難以置信。自2019年1月1日以來，將近340萬比特幣加入了超長持有人的行列。根據報告的假設比特幣價格為107,000美元（截至2025年6月9日），這種古老的供應價值超過3600億美元！這就像一條巨大的沉睡的龍，守衛著數字黃金山。

Who's Holding All This Bitcoin?

誰拿著所有這些比特幣？

According to the research, ancient supply now makes up more than 17% of the total Bitcoin supply. A third of that is estimated to belong to Satoshi Nakamoto, Bitcoin's mysterious creator. While some of these coins might be lost forever, their inactivity suggests a deep-seated belief in Bitcoin's long-term value. These OG holders are HODLing strong!

根據這項研究，古代供應現在佔比特幣供應總額的17％以上。其中三分之一估計屬於比特幣的神秘創造者Satoshi Nakamoto。儘管其中一些硬幣可能永遠丟失，但它們的不活動表明對比特幣的長期價值有深深的信念。這些OG持有人很強大！

Even Diamond Hands Have Their Limits

甚至鑽石手也有極限

Interestingly, Fidelity's research also shows that even the most hardcore Bitcoin holders aren't immune to market forces. Since the 2024 U.S. election, the ancient supply has decreased on a daily basis about 10% of the time. This suggests that even the most dedicated believers might sell during times of volatility, which, let's be honest, is pretty much Bitcoin's default setting.

有趣的是，富達的研究還表明，即使是最頑固的比特幣持有者也無法免疫市場力量。自2024年美國大選以來，大約10％的時間每天都在減少古老的供應。這表明，即使是最敬業的信徒也可能在波動性的時期出售，老實說，這幾乎是比特幣的默認設置。

Corporate HODLers Enter the Fray

企業雜貨店進入競爭

The rise of corporate Bitcoin treasuries is another key factor. As of June 2025, 27 public companies held over 800,000 Bitcoins. Fidelity projects that ancient supply could reach 30% of the total Bitcoin supply by 2035, thanks in part to these institutional investors.

公司比特幣國庫的興起是另一個關鍵因素。截至2025年6月，有27家上市公司擁有超過80萬比特幣。 Fidelity預計，到2035年，古代供應可能會達到比特幣供應總額的30％，這在一定程度上要歸功於這些機構投資者。

Implications for the Market: Scarcity and Price

對市場的影響：稀缺和價格

Fidelity's research introduces the 'ancient supply HODL rate,' which tracks the net flow of Bitcoin into the 10-year category. This figure turned positive for the first time in April 2024, hinting at a potential turning point for Bitcoin's long-term supply dynamics. If institutional investors keep gobbling up BTC and the ancient supply keeps growing, we could be looking at a serious supply squeeze.

富達的研究介紹了“古代供應hodl速率”，該速率跟踪比特幣的淨流入10年類別。這個數字在2024年4月首次取得了積極影響，這暗示了比特幣長期供應動態的潛在轉折點。如果機構投資者不斷吞噬BTC，而古老的供應不斷增長，我們可能會考慮一個嚴重的供應壓縮。

Bitcoin to $1 Million? Don't Rule It Out

比特幣至100萬美元？不要排除它

Reaching $1 million per Bitcoin requires a market cap of $21 trillion. It sounds insane, but with the fixed supply and growing illiquidity, it's not entirely out of the realm of possibility. After all, Bitcoin has surprised us before. Bitwise estimates sidelined demand of $35 billion in 2024 alone due to risk-averse policies at major firms. If those barriers fall, watch out!

每個比特幣達到100萬美元的市值為21萬億美元。這聽起來很瘋狂，但是隨著固定的供應和越來越多的流動性，它並不完全脫離可能性。畢竟，比特幣以前讓我們感到驚訝。僅在2024年，由於主要公司規避風險的政策，Bitwise估計僅在2024年僅需350億美元的需求。如果那些障礙倒下，請當心！

So, what does all this mean? Well, it means Bitcoin is becoming increasingly scarce, and that's generally a good thing for price. Whether it reaches a million dollars or not remains to be seen, but one thing is clear: the dynamics of Bitcoin's supply are changing, and it's something we should all be paying attention to.

那麼，這意味著什麼？好吧，這意味著比特幣變得越來越稀缺，對於價格來說，這通常是一件好事。它是否達到一百萬美元還有待觀察，但很明顯：比特幣供應的動態正在發生變化，這是我們所有人都應該關注的事情。

Until next time, keep stacking those sats, and remember: HODL on!

直到下一次，請繼續堆疊那些SAT，並記住：Hodl！