Bitcoin's Ancient Supply: Fidelity Digital Assets Spotlights a Scarcity Revolution

Fidelity Digital Assets reveals Bitcoin's 'ancient supply' is growing faster than new coins are mined, signaling a potential supply squeeze and price surge.

Bitcoin's supply dynamics are undergoing a fascinating shift, according to groundbreaking research from Fidelity Digital Assets. For the first time ever, the amount of Bitcoin untouched for a decade or more—dubbed 'ancient supply'—is growing faster than new Bitcoins are being mined. This trend, combined with increasing institutional interest, is setting the stage for a potential supply squeeze and, dare we say, maybe even a million-dollar Bitcoin?

Ancient Supply Overtakes New Mining

Fidelity's analysis reveals that around 566 Bitcoins per day are entering the ancient supply category, while the daily mining reward is only 450 BTC after the 2024 halving. That's a pretty big deal. We're talking about a significant shift in how Bitcoin is distributed and held.

A $360 Billion Sleeping Giant

The numbers are mind-boggling. Since January 1, 2019, nearly 3.4 million Bitcoins have joined the ranks of the ultra-long-term holders. At a hypothetical Bitcoin price of $107,000 (as of June 9, 2025, according to the report), this ancient supply is worth over $360 billion! It's like a giant, slumbering dragon guarding a mountain of digital gold.

Who's Holding All This Bitcoin?

According to the research, ancient supply now makes up more than 17% of the total Bitcoin supply. A third of that is estimated to belong to Satoshi Nakamoto, Bitcoin's mysterious creator. While some of these coins might be lost forever, their inactivity suggests a deep-seated belief in Bitcoin's long-term value. These OG holders are HODLing strong!

Even Diamond Hands Have Their Limits

Interestingly, Fidelity's research also shows that even the most hardcore Bitcoin holders aren't immune to market forces. Since the 2024 U.S. election, the ancient supply has decreased on a daily basis about 10% of the time. This suggests that even the most dedicated believers might sell during times of volatility, which, let's be honest, is pretty much Bitcoin's default setting.

Corporate HODLers Enter the Fray

The rise of corporate Bitcoin treasuries is another key factor. As of June 2025, 27 public companies held over 800,000 Bitcoins. Fidelity projects that ancient supply could reach 30% of the total Bitcoin supply by 2035, thanks in part to these institutional investors.

Implications for the Market: Scarcity and Price

Fidelity's research introduces the 'ancient supply HODL rate,' which tracks the net flow of Bitcoin into the 10-year category. This figure turned positive for the first time in April 2024, hinting at a potential turning point for Bitcoin's long-term supply dynamics. If institutional investors keep gobbling up BTC and the ancient supply keeps growing, we could be looking at a serious supply squeeze.

Bitcoin to $1 Million? Don't Rule It Out

Reaching $1 million per Bitcoin requires a market cap of $21 trillion. It sounds insane, but with the fixed supply and growing illiquidity, it's not entirely out of the realm of possibility. After all, Bitcoin has surprised us before. Bitwise estimates sidelined demand of $35 billion in 2024 alone due to risk-averse policies at major firms. If those barriers fall, watch out!

So, what does all this mean? Well, it means Bitcoin is becoming increasingly scarce, and that's generally a good thing for price. Whether it reaches a million dollars or not remains to be seen, but one thing is clear: the dynamics of Bitcoin's supply are changing, and it's something we should all be paying attention to.

Until next time, keep stacking those sats, and remember: HODL on!