比特币的古代供应：富达数字资产聚焦于一场稀缺革命

富达数字资产显示，比特币的“古代供应”的增长速度比开采新硬币的速度快，这表明潜在的供应压缩和价格上涨。

Bitcoin's supply dynamics are undergoing a fascinating shift, according to groundbreaking research from Fidelity Digital Assets. For the first time ever, the amount of Bitcoin untouched for a decade or more—dubbed 'ancient supply'—is growing faster than new Bitcoins are being mined. This trend, combined with increasing institutional interest, is setting the stage for a potential supply squeeze and, dare we say, maybe even a million-dollar Bitcoin?

根据Fidelity Digital Assets的开创性研究，比特币的供应动态正在发生令人着迷的转变。有史以来第一次，比特币数十年或更长时间（被称为“古代供应”）的数量比开采新的比特币的速度快。这种趋势加上越来越多的机构利益，正在为潜在的供应压缩奠定基础，我们敢说，甚至可能是一百万美元的比特币？

Ancient Supply Overtakes New Mining

古代供应超过了新采矿

Fidelity's analysis reveals that around 566 Bitcoins per day are entering the ancient supply category, while the daily mining reward is only 450 BTC after the 2024 halving. That's a pretty big deal. We're talking about a significant shift in how Bitcoin is distributed and held.

富达的分析表明，每天约有566个比特币进入古老的供应类别，而在2024年减半之后，每日采矿奖励仅为450 BTC。这是一件大事。我们正在谈论比特币分发和持有的重大转变。

A $360 Billion Sleeping Giant

一个耗资3600亿美元的睡眠巨人

The numbers are mind-boggling. Since January 1, 2019, nearly 3.4 million Bitcoins have joined the ranks of the ultra-long-term holders. At a hypothetical Bitcoin price of $107,000 (as of June 9, 2025, according to the report), this ancient supply is worth over $360 billion! It's like a giant, slumbering dragon guarding a mountain of digital gold.

这些数字令人难以置信。自2019年1月1日以来，将近340万比特币加入了超长持有人的行列。根据报告的假设比特币价格为107,000美元（截至2025年6月9日），这种古老的供应价值超过3600亿美元！这就像一条巨大的沉睡的龙，守卫着数字黄金山。

Who's Holding All This Bitcoin?

谁拿着所有这些比特币？

According to the research, ancient supply now makes up more than 17% of the total Bitcoin supply. A third of that is estimated to belong to Satoshi Nakamoto, Bitcoin's mysterious creator. While some of these coins might be lost forever, their inactivity suggests a deep-seated belief in Bitcoin's long-term value. These OG holders are HODLing strong!

根据这项研究，古代供应现在占比特币供应总额的17％以上。其中三分之一估计属于比特币的神秘创造者Satoshi Nakamoto。尽管其中一些硬币可能永远丢失，但它们的不活动表明对比特币的长期价值有深深的信念。这些OG持有人很强大！

Even Diamond Hands Have Their Limits

甚至钻石手也有极限

Interestingly, Fidelity's research also shows that even the most hardcore Bitcoin holders aren't immune to market forces. Since the 2024 U.S. election, the ancient supply has decreased on a daily basis about 10% of the time. This suggests that even the most dedicated believers might sell during times of volatility, which, let's be honest, is pretty much Bitcoin's default setting.

有趣的是，富达的研究还表明，即使是最顽固的比特币持有者也无法免疫市场力量。自2024年美国大选以来，大约10％的时间每天都在减少古老的供应。这表明，即使是最敬业的信徒也可能在波动性的时期出售，老实说，这几乎是比特币的默认设置。

Corporate HODLers Enter the Fray

企业杂货店进入竞争

The rise of corporate Bitcoin treasuries is another key factor. As of June 2025, 27 public companies held over 800,000 Bitcoins. Fidelity projects that ancient supply could reach 30% of the total Bitcoin supply by 2035, thanks in part to these institutional investors.

公司比特币国库的兴起是另一个关键因素。截至2025年6月，有27家上市公司拥有超过80万比特币。 Fidelity预计，到2035年，古代供应可能会达到比特币供应总额的30％，这在一定程度上要归功于这些机构投资者。

Implications for the Market: Scarcity and Price

对市场的影响：稀缺和价格

Fidelity's research introduces the 'ancient supply HODL rate,' which tracks the net flow of Bitcoin into the 10-year category. This figure turned positive for the first time in April 2024, hinting at a potential turning point for Bitcoin's long-term supply dynamics. If institutional investors keep gobbling up BTC and the ancient supply keeps growing, we could be looking at a serious supply squeeze.

富达的研究介绍了“古代供应hodl速率”，该速率跟踪比特币的净流入10年类别。这个数字在2024年4月首次取得了积极影响，这暗示了比特币长期供应动态的潜在转折点。如果机构投资者不断吞噬BTC，而古老的供应不断增长，我们可能会考虑一个严重的供应压缩。

Bitcoin to $1 Million? Don't Rule It Out

比特币至100万美元？不要排除它

Reaching $1 million per Bitcoin requires a market cap of $21 trillion. It sounds insane, but with the fixed supply and growing illiquidity, it's not entirely out of the realm of possibility. After all, Bitcoin has surprised us before. Bitwise estimates sidelined demand of $35 billion in 2024 alone due to risk-averse policies at major firms. If those barriers fall, watch out!

每个比特币达到100万美元的市值为21万亿美元。这听起来很疯狂，但是随着固定的供应和越来越多的流动性，它并不完全脱离可能性。毕竟，比特币以前让我们感到惊讶。仅在2024年，由于主要公司规避风险的政策，Bitwise估计仅在2024年仅需350亿美元的需求。如果那些障碍倒下，请当心！

So, what does all this mean? Well, it means Bitcoin is becoming increasingly scarce, and that's generally a good thing for price. Whether it reaches a million dollars or not remains to be seen, but one thing is clear: the dynamics of Bitcoin's supply are changing, and it's something we should all be paying attention to.

那么，这意味着什么？好吧，这意味着比特币变得越来越稀缺，对于价格来说，这通常是一件好事。它是否达到一百万美元还有待观察，但很明显：比特币供应的动态正在发生变化，这是我们所有人都应该关注的事情。

Until next time, keep stacking those sats, and remember: HODL on!

直到下一次，请继续堆叠那些SAT，并记住：Hodl！