比特幣：美國經濟尚未解決的動態是否有助於或阻礙其作為替代性避風港的崛起？

從歷史上看，由於某些美國考慮將其融入他們的儲量，因此今天被視為投機性資產，如今正在目睹其地位的發展。

The American economy is facing a dynamic that could upset the established balances: demand for long-term Treasury bonds is weakening, questioning the strength of the dollar, and fueling new economic uncertainties.

美國經濟面臨的動態可能會破壞既定的餘額：對長期債券的需求正在削弱，質疑美元的實力，並助長了新的經濟不確定性。

While the Federal Reserve remains committed to a delicate monetary policy and inflation struggles to slow down, bitcoin finds itself at a strategic crossroads. Historically seen as a speculative asset, it is today witnessing its status evolve as certain U.S. states consider integrating it into their reserves. The central question then is: will bitcoin suffer from the effects of this uncertainty or benefit from it to assert itself as an alternative safe haven?

儘管美聯儲仍然致力於製定微妙的貨幣政策，而通貨膨脹率則努力減速，但比特幣發現自己處於戰略性十字路口。從歷史上看，由於某些美國考慮將其融入他們的儲量，因此今天被視為投機性資產，如今正在目睹其地位的發展。那麼中心的問題是：比特幣會遭受這種不確定性的影響或從中受益的影響，以確保自己作為替代性避風港？

The correlation between the dollar and bitcoin: a game of fragile equilibria

美元與比特幣之間的相關性：脆弱的平衡遊戲

For several months now, bitcoin has been moving in correlation with the U.S. dollar index (DXY). The drop in the latter, reaching its lowest level in 70 days, coincided with a correction in the S&P 500 and increasing uncertainty in the bond markets. Thus, “Investors are beginning to question the viability of long-term financing of U.S. debt,” explains Scott Bessent, U.S. Treasury Secretary.

幾個月來，比特幣一直與美元指數（DXY）相關。後者的下降在70天內達到了最低水平，同時進行了標準普爾500指數的糾正，並增加了債券市場的不確定性。因此，“投資者開始質疑美國債務長期融資的可行性，”美國財政部長斯科特·貝斯特（Scott Bessent）解釋說。

Despite persistent criticism of Janet Yellen's debt management policy, the Trump administration maintains its cautious approach and for now avoids massive long-term debt issuance.

儘管對珍妮特·耶倫（Janet Yellen）的債務管理政策持續批評，但特朗普政府仍保持謹慎的態度，目前避免了大規模的長期債務發行。

In this context, bitcoin struggles to maintain its bullish momentum. After a period of strong growth between September 2024 and January 2025, it seems to be facing marked resistance. The weakness of the dollar does not immediately benefit crypto, as investors still hesitate to grant it a status of safe haven in the face of monetary and fiscal uncertainties.

在這種情況下，比特幣努力保持其看漲的勢頭。在2024年9月至2025年1月之間的強勁增長之後，它似乎面臨著明顯的抵抗。美元的弱點並不能立即使加密貨幣受益，因為在貨幣和財政不確定性面前，投資者仍然不願將其授予避風港的地位。

However, some analysts believe that this dynamic could evolve with the increasing introduction of bitcoin into the macroeconomic strategies of several U.S. states.

但是，一些分析人士認為，這種動態可以隨著比特幣越來越多地引入美國幾個州的宏觀經濟策略而發展。

Is bitcoin on the verge of becoming a strategic reserve asset?

比特幣即將成為戰略儲備資產的邊緣？

As economic uncertainty drives investors to seek alternatives to traditional bonds, several U.S. states are beginning to modify their approach to bitcoin. The Montana Business and Labor Committee has adopted a bill aimed at including bitcoin and precious metals in state reserves.

隨著經濟不確定性促使投資者尋求替代傳統債券的替代方案，美國幾個州開始改變其比特幣的方法。蒙大拿州商業和勞工委員會已通過一項法案，旨在在國家儲備中包括比特幣和貴金屬。

An initiative followed by Utah, Arizona, Texas, and other states signals a profound change in the perception of this asset.

猶他州，亞利桑那州，德克薩斯州和其他州的一項倡議跡象表明，對該資產的看法發生了深刻的變化。

This evolution occurs within a troubled macroeconomic context. Moreover, some observers fear that the U.S. government may be compelled to adopt an expansionist fiscal policy to revive the economy, notably through direct payments to households. Such a decision could strengthen bitcoin’s appeal as protection against inflation, similar to gold.

這種進化發生在陷入困境的宏觀經濟環境中。此外，一些觀察家擔心美國政府可能會被迫採取擴張主義財政政策來恢復經濟，特別是通過直接支付給家庭。這樣的決定可以加強比特幣的吸引力，以防止與黃金相似。

“Investors need to stop focusing solely on the dollar and start observing how states approach bitcoin as a reserve asset,” emphasizes Aleš Michl, Governor of the Czech National Bank.

捷克國家銀行州長AlešMichl強調：“投資者需要停止僅關注美元並開始觀察各州如何將比特幣作為儲備資產。”

If bitcoin is currently facing a period of uncertainty due to fluctuations in the bond market, underlying trends indicate a structural change in its institutional adoption. The gradual inclusion of bitcoin in state reserves and its proximity to precious metals mark a new step in its integration within the global economic system.

如果由於債券市場的波動，比特幣目前面臨不確定性時期，則基本趨勢表明其機構採用的結構性變化。逐漸將比特幣納入國家儲量及其靠近貴金屬的程度標誌著其在全球經濟體系中的融合邁出了新的一步。

However, its evolution will also depend on the appetite of institutional investors, particularly through the capital flows into spot Bitcoin ETF, which have recorded net outflows of $125 million in recent days.

但是，它的演變還將取決於機構投資者的胃口，特別是通過資本流入現貨比特幣ETF的胃口，這些ETF最近幾天記錄了1.25億美元的淨流出。

Far from being a mere speculative alternative, bitcoin is increasingly positioning itself as a key indicator of global monetary tensions, a role it could fully assume if distrust of the dollar were to intensify.

比特幣遠非僅僅是投機性的替代方案，而是越來越多地將自己定位為全球貨幣緊張局勢的關鍵指標，它可以完全假設是否不信任美元來加強。