美國廣播公司電視採訪後，拜登在綜合市場上的勝算幾乎沒有變化

根據加密貨幣預測的交易員稱，總統連任的可能性低至 11%，退出的可能性徘徊在 64% 左右

President Biden's chances of reelection remained at 11% on Friday, according to traders on crypto-based prediction market platform Polymarket, following his ABC News interview.

加密貨幣預測市場平台 Polymarket 的交易員在接受美國廣播公司新聞 (ABC News) 採訪後表示，拜登總統週五連任的可能性仍為 11%。

The shares for the contract asking who will win the presidency in November were trading at 11 cents shortly after the interview with George Stephanopoulos aired – a penny lower than right before the broadcast. Each share pays out $1 (in USDC, a stablecoin that trades at par with the dollar) if the prediction comes true, and zilch if it does not.

在喬治·斯特凡諾普洛斯的採訪播出後不久，詢問誰將贏得 11 月份總統職位的合約的股價為 11 美分，比播出前低了 1 美分。如果預測成真，每股將支付 1 美元（USDC，一種與美元平價交易的穩定幣），如果沒有實現，則為零。

Biden's odds of dropping out of the race also rose three points to 65%, according to another contract on the platform.

該平台上的另一份合約顯示，拜登退出競選的幾率也上升了三個百分點，達到 65%。

The presidential winner contract is Polymarket's largest, with $229 million of bets placed. For a separate contract concerning who will win the Democratic nomination, Biden's odds climbed just one percentage point after the broadcast to 42%. This contract has $89 million staked.

總統獲勝者合約是 Polymarket 最大的合同，賭注高達 2.29 億美元。對於一份關於誰將贏得民主黨提名的單獨合同，拜登的勝算在播出後僅上升了一個百分點，達到 42%。這份合約價值8900萬美元。

A third contract asks if Biden will drop out of the race, with $12 million riding on the outcome.

第三份合約詢問拜登是否會退出競選，最終結果將帶來 1,200 萬美元的獎金。

Four-year-old Polymarket's volume has surged this year as the U.S. election in November fuels enthusiasm for political betting. June was the platform's first month with more than $100 million in volume.

隨著 11 月的美國大選激發了政治博彩的熱情，成立四年的 Polymarket 今年的交易量激增。 6 月是該平台交易量首次超過 1 億美元的月份。

Polymarket also recently won accolades for signaling early on, through the trading levels on the "Biden drops out?" contract, that the president's cognitive health was a concern long before mainstream media outlets discussed the matter seriously.

Polymarket 最近也因透過「拜登退出？」的交易水平及早發出信號而贏得讚譽。合約中指出，早在主流媒體認真討論此事之前，總統的認知健康就已成為人們關注的問題。

"Prediction markets have long been sought as a prime use case for blockchains," wrote Zack Pokorny, an analyst at Galaxy Digital, in a research note Friday. "Their censor/tamper resistant, transparent, and global nature makes them well suited for the task, as they allow for the unfiltered casting of opinion on any topic from anyone, anywhere."

Galaxy Digital 分析師 Zack Pokorny 在周五的研究報告中寫道：“長期以來，預測市場一直被視為區塊鏈的主要用例。” “它們的抗審查/篡改、透明和全球性使它們非常適合這項任務，因為它們允許任何人、任何地方對任何主題發表未經過濾的意見。”

However, on-chain prediction markets have limitations, Pokorny wrote. "They solely reflect the opinions of individuals who are active on blockchains, which, today, is a small sect of people with possibly similar beliefs. With crypto becoming an increasingly partisan political issue, and Polymarket only able to be used with crypto, it's possible that Polymarket's political markets may be skewed by the pro-crypto biases of its participants."

然而，波科尼寫道，鏈上預測市場有其限制。 「它們僅反映了活躍於區塊鏈的個人的觀點，而如今，這些人可能只是擁有相似信仰的一小部分人。隨著加密貨幣成為一個日益黨派化的政治問題，而Polymarket 只能與加密貨幣一起使用，因此有可能Polymarket 的政治市場可能會因其參與者支持加密貨幣的偏見而扭曲。