美国广播公司电视采访后，拜登在综合市场上的胜算几乎没有变化

根据加密货币预测的交易员称，总统连任的可能性低至 11%，退出的可能性徘徊在 64% 左右

President Biden's chances of reelection remained at 11% on Friday, according to traders on crypto-based prediction market platform Polymarket, following his ABC News interview.

加密货币预测市场平台 Polymarket 的交易员在接受 ABC 新闻采访后表示，拜登总统周五连任的可能性仍为 11%。

The shares for the contract asking who will win the presidency in November were trading at 11 cents shortly after the interview with George Stephanopoulos aired – a penny lower than right before the broadcast. Each share pays out $1 (in USDC, a stablecoin that trades at par with the dollar) if the prediction comes true, and zilch if it does not.

在乔治·斯特凡诺普洛斯的采访播出后不久，询问谁将赢得 11 月份总统职位的合同的股价为 11 美分，比播出前低了 1 美分。如果预测成真，每股将支付 1 美元（USDC，一种与美元平价交易的稳定币），如果预测不成真，每股将支付 0 美元。

Biden's odds of dropping out of the race also rose three points to 65%, according to another contract on the platform.

该平台上的另一份合同显示，拜登退出竞选的几率也上升了三个百分点，达到 65%。

The presidential winner contract is Polymarket's largest, with $229 million of bets placed. For a separate contract concerning who will win the Democratic nomination, Biden's odds climbed just one percentage point after the broadcast to 42%. This contract has $89 million staked.

总统获胜者合同是 Polymarket 最大的合同，赌注高达 2.29 亿美元。对于一份关于谁将赢得民主党提名的单独合同，拜登的胜算在播出后仅上升了一个百分点，达到 42%。这份合同价值8900万美元。

A third contract asks if Biden will drop out of the race, with $12 million riding on the outcome.

第三份合同询问拜登是否会退出竞选，最终结果将带来 1200 万美元的奖金。

Four-year-old Polymarket's volume has surged this year as the U.S. election in November fuels enthusiasm for political betting. June was the platform's first month with more than $100 million in volume.

随着 11 月份的美国大选激发了政治博彩的热情，成立四年的 Polymarket 今年的交易量激增。 6 月是该平台交易量首次超过 1 亿美元的月份。

Polymarket also recently won accolades for signaling early on, through the trading levels on the "Biden drops out?" contract, that the president's cognitive health was a concern long before mainstream media outlets discussed the matter seriously.

Polymarket 最近还因通过“拜登退出？”的交易水平及早发出信号而赢得赞誉。合同中指出，早在主流媒体认真讨论此事之前，总统的认知健康就已成为人们关注的问题。

"Prediction markets have long been sought as a prime use case for blockchains," wrote Zack Pokorny, an analyst at Galaxy Digital, in a research note Friday. "Their censor/tamper resistant, transparent, and global nature makes them well suited for the task, as they allow for the unfiltered casting of opinion on any topic from anyone, anywhere."

Galaxy Digital 分析师 Zack Pokorny 在周五的一份研究报告中写道：“长期以来，预测市场一直被视为区块链的主要用例。” “它们的抗审查/篡改、透明和全球性使它们非常适合这项任务，因为它们允许任何人、任何地方对任何主题发表未经过滤的意见。”

However, on-chain prediction markets have limitations, Pokorny wrote. "They solely reflect the opinions of individuals who are active on blockchains, which, today, is a small sect of people with possibly similar beliefs. With crypto becoming an increasingly partisan political issue, and Polymarket only able to be used with crypto, it's possible that Polymarket's political markets may be skewed by the pro-crypto biases of its participants."

然而，波科尼写道，链上预测市场有局限性。 “它们仅反映了活跃于区块链的个人的观点，而如今，这些人可能只是拥有相似信仰的一小部分人。随着加密货币成为一个日益党派化的政治问题，而 Polymarket 只能与加密货币一起使用，因此有可能Polymarket 的政治市场可能会因其参与者支持加密货币的偏见而扭曲。”