這場戰鬥似乎幾乎已經因替補幣而前丟了

儘管比特幣優勢達到了新的高度，但對山寨幣季節的希望卻逐漸減少。

The battle seems almost lost in advance for altcoins. As bitcoin dominance reaches new highs, hopes for an altcoin season are dwindling. Bitcoin, the king of cryptos, is approaching the crucial threshold of 64% bitcoin dominance. If this level is surpassed, the dream of a soaring altcoin rally could evaporate. And at that moment, those hoping for a shake-up will have to wait, as the horizon seems rather favorable to an extension of bitcoin’s dominance.

這場戰鬥似乎幾乎已經因替補幣而前丟失了。隨著比特幣優勢達到新高點，對山寨幣季節的希望正在減少。比特幣是加密貨幣之王，正接近64％比特幣優勢的關鍵閾值。如果這個級別超過了，那麼飆升的Altcoin集會的夢想可能會蒸發。在那一刻，那些希望進行重新振奮的人將不得不等待，因為地平線似乎有利於比特幣的統治地位的擴展。

Bitcoin dominance: the 64% barrier and its consequences

比特幣優勢：64％的障礙及其後果

Bitcoin dominance is a valuable indicator in the crypto industry. Today, it has surpassed 63.6%, its highest level since 2021, heading towards a key threshold: 64%. If bitcoin manages to maintain this dominance above this level at the end of the month, the altseason could be compromised, delayed, or even crushed. This is what Rekt Capital states:

比特幣優勢是加密行業的寶貴指標。如今，它已超過63.6％，這是自2021年以來的最高水平，正朝著關鍵閾值：64％。如果比特幣在本月底設法維持高於此水平的優勢，那麼季后賽可能會受到損害，延遲甚至被壓碎。這就是Rekt Capital所說的：

A close above 64% followed by a retest could turn this resistance zone into support.

接近64％的接近，然後進行重新測試，可以將此電阻區變成支撐。

In other words, once this threshold is crossed, bitcoin dominance could hold and even push towards historic levels close to 71%, as seen in 2019.

換句話說，一旦越過這個閾值，比特幣的優勢可以保持甚至朝著接近71％的歷史水平上，如2019年所示。

This would leave little room for altcoins, already under pressure and risk being relegated to the background, limited in their gain potential. And this is despite a strong willingness to see altcoins take off. But the bitcoin performance, supported by a more active institutional market, could well crush this momentum. Rekt Capital continues:

這將使山寨幣幾乎沒有空間，已經承受壓力，風險被降級到背景，而其增益潛力有限。儘管這很願意看到Altcoins脫穎而出。但是，受到更活躍的機構市場支持的比特幣表現可能會破壞這一勢頭。 Rekt Capital繼續：

If dominance remains stable above 64%, altcoins could find themselves in a dead end.

如果優勢保持穩定在64％以上，Altcoins可能會發現自己處於死胡同。

Altcoins struggling: difficult comeback under pressure

山寨幣掙扎：在壓力下艱難的捲土重來

When bitcoin shines, altcoins fade. And even if BTC dominance has slightly dropped, altcoins struggle to catch up with their past highs. The bitcoin price recently reached a new historic high close to $94,000, but enthusiasm for altcoins has remained timid.

當比特幣閃耀時，altcoins逐漸消失。即使BTC的優勢略有下降，Altcoins也很難趕上他們過去的高點。比特幣價格最近達到了新的歷史高處接近94,000美元，但對山寨幣的熱情仍然膽怯。

As Kaiko Research highlights, « despite bitcoin’s resilience, many altcoins have yet to recover their 2021 and 2022 highs. » Small altcoins continue to suffer, with declines exceeding 30% on some projects.

正如Kaiko研究所強調的那樣，«儘管比特幣具有韌性，但許多山寨幣尚未恢復其2021年和2022年的高點。 »小型山寨幣繼續受苦，某些項目的下降超過30％。

The performance gap is striking: major names like Solana (SOL) or XRP are experiencing some growth, but they cannot catch the momentum of bitcoin. As Danny_Crypton reminds us, « altcoins are entering an early phase of Altseason » — a phase marked by small increases.

性能差距令人震驚：諸如Solana（Sol）或XRP之類的主要名稱正在經歷一些增長，但它們無法抓住比特幣的勢頭。正如Danny_crypton提醒我們的那樣，“ Altcoins進入了Altseason的早期階段”，這是一個以少量增長為標誌的階段。

But these performances remain very limited. As Danny warns, « bitcoin dominance remains one of the crucial factors to watch. »

但是這些表演仍然非常有限。正如丹尼（Danny）所警告的那樣，«比特幣的主導地位仍然是要關注的關鍵因素之一。 »»

This is because bitcoin dominance could still put a spanner in the works. Despite a resurgence of interest, altcoins still have to overcome this major obstacle: the omnipresence of bitcoin in the market. A few price increases are not enough for the altseason to truly take off.

這是因為比特幣的優勢仍然可以使扳手納入其中。儘管有興趣的複興，但AltCoins仍然必須克服這一主要障礙：比特幣在市場上的無所不能。價格上漲是不夠的，即使是季后賽真正起飛。

Altcoin Window: a last chance before the door closes?

Altcoin窗口：門關閉前的最後機會？

The possibility of an altseason could however persist, provided that bitcoin dominance fluctuates around 64%. Rekt Capital mentions the possibility of a brief “altcoin window“. This short respite could allow altcoins to recover some ground, but this window seems to be closing faster as bitcoin strengthens its position.

但是，如果比特幣優勢波動約為64％，則可能會持續出現季前賽的可能性。 Rekt Capital提到了簡短的“ Altcoin窗口”的可能性。這種短暫的喘息可能會使山寨幣能夠恢復某些地面，但是隨著比特幣增強其位置，該窗口似乎更快。

The gap between major altcoins and smaller ones is now more pronounced than ever. However, increased volatility coupled with persistent bitcoin dominance makes a true rise for altcoins difficult. As Kaiko Research highlights, « altcoin dominance remains concentrated on the top 10, representing nearly 64% of the total traded volume. »

現在，主要山寨幣與較小的差距之間的差距比以往任何時候都更加明顯。然而，增加的波動性以及持續的比特幣優勢使山寨幣的真正上升變得困難。正如Kaiko研究所強調的那樣，«Altcoin優勢仍然集中在前10名上，佔交易總量的近64％。 »»

A sign that even if liquidity is moving to other tokens, a large share remains reserved for high-cap projects.

一個跡象表明，即使流動性轉移到其他代幣，仍然有很大的份額保留給高額股項目。

So it seems that although altcoins still have a chance, the 64% threshold could well become a point of no return for their ambitions.

因此，儘管AltCoins仍然有機會，但64％的門檻很可能成為他們野心的回報。

In December 2024, an altseason triggered by stablecoins had captivated analysts, but today, bitcoin still dominates. If bitcoin dominance closes April above 64%, the space for an altcoin season is likely to shrink rapidly. May could clarify whether altcoins will get their chance or if bitcoin will keep the upper hand.

2024年12月，由Stablecoins觸發的一個季節吸引了分析師，但如今，比特幣仍然佔據主導地位。如果比特幣優勢佔據4月以上的64％以上，那麼Altcoin季節的空間可能會迅速縮小。梅可以澄清山寨幣是否會獲得機會，或者比特幣是否會保持上風。