The battle seems almost lost in advance for altcoins

While bitcoin dominance is reaching new heights, hopes for an altcoin season are dwindling.

The battle seems almost lost in advance for altcoins. As bitcoin dominance reaches new highs, hopes for an altcoin season are dwindling. Bitcoin, the king of cryptos, is approaching the crucial threshold of 64% bitcoin dominance. If this level is surpassed, the dream of a soaring altcoin rally could evaporate. And at that moment, those hoping for a shake-up will have to wait, as the horizon seems rather favorable to an extension of bitcoin’s dominance.

Bitcoin dominance: the 64% barrier and its consequences

Bitcoin dominance is a valuable indicator in the crypto industry. Today, it has surpassed 63.6%, its highest level since 2021, heading towards a key threshold: 64%. If bitcoin manages to maintain this dominance above this level at the end of the month, the altseason could be compromised, delayed, or even crushed. This is what Rekt Capital states:

A close above 64% followed by a retest could turn this resistance zone into support.

In other words, once this threshold is crossed, bitcoin dominance could hold and even push towards historic levels close to 71%, as seen in 2019.

This would leave little room for altcoins, already under pressure and risk being relegated to the background, limited in their gain potential. And this is despite a strong willingness to see altcoins take off. But the bitcoin performance, supported by a more active institutional market, could well crush this momentum. Rekt Capital continues:

If dominance remains stable above 64%, altcoins could find themselves in a dead end.

Altcoins struggling: difficult comeback under pressure

When bitcoin shines, altcoins fade. And even if BTC dominance has slightly dropped, altcoins struggle to catch up with their past highs. The bitcoin price recently reached a new historic high close to $94,000, but enthusiasm for altcoins has remained timid.

As Kaiko Research highlights, « despite bitcoin’s resilience, many altcoins have yet to recover their 2021 and 2022 highs. » Small altcoins continue to suffer, with declines exceeding 30% on some projects.

The performance gap is striking: major names like Solana (SOL) or XRP are experiencing some growth, but they cannot catch the momentum of bitcoin. As Danny_Crypton reminds us, « altcoins are entering an early phase of Altseason » — a phase marked by small increases.

But these performances remain very limited. As Danny warns, « bitcoin dominance remains one of the crucial factors to watch. »

This is because bitcoin dominance could still put a spanner in the works. Despite a resurgence of interest, altcoins still have to overcome this major obstacle: the omnipresence of bitcoin in the market. A few price increases are not enough for the altseason to truly take off.

Altcoin Window: a last chance before the door closes?

The possibility of an altseason could however persist, provided that bitcoin dominance fluctuates around 64%. Rekt Capital mentions the possibility of a brief “altcoin window“. This short respite could allow altcoins to recover some ground, but this window seems to be closing faster as bitcoin strengthens its position.

The gap between major altcoins and smaller ones is now more pronounced than ever. However, increased volatility coupled with persistent bitcoin dominance makes a true rise for altcoins difficult. As Kaiko Research highlights, « altcoin dominance remains concentrated on the top 10, representing nearly 64% of the total traded volume. »

A sign that even if liquidity is moving to other tokens, a large share remains reserved for high-cap projects.

So it seems that although altcoins still have a chance, the 64% threshold could well become a point of no return for their ambitions.

In December 2024, an altseason triggered by stablecoins had captivated analysts, but today, bitcoin still dominates. If bitcoin dominance closes April above 64%, the space for an altcoin season is likely to shrink rapidly. May could clarify whether altcoins will get their chance or if bitcoin will keep the upper hand.