这场战斗似乎几乎已经因替补币而前丢了

尽管比特币优势达到了新的高度，但对山寨币季节的希望却逐渐减少。

The battle seems almost lost in advance for altcoins. As bitcoin dominance reaches new highs, hopes for an altcoin season are dwindling. Bitcoin, the king of cryptos, is approaching the crucial threshold of 64% bitcoin dominance. If this level is surpassed, the dream of a soaring altcoin rally could evaporate. And at that moment, those hoping for a shake-up will have to wait, as the horizon seems rather favorable to an extension of bitcoin’s dominance.

这场战斗似乎几乎已经因替补币而前丢失了。随着比特币优势达到新高点，对山寨币季节的希望正在减少。比特币是加密货币之王，正接近64％比特币优势的关键阈值。如果这个级别超过了，那么飙升的Altcoin集会的梦想可能会蒸发。在那一刻，那些希望进行重新振奋的人将不得不等待，因为地平线似乎有利于比特币的统治地位的扩展。

Bitcoin dominance: the 64% barrier and its consequences

比特币优势：64％的障碍及其后果

Bitcoin dominance is a valuable indicator in the crypto industry. Today, it has surpassed 63.6%, its highest level since 2021, heading towards a key threshold: 64%. If bitcoin manages to maintain this dominance above this level at the end of the month, the altseason could be compromised, delayed, or even crushed. This is what Rekt Capital states:

比特币优势是加密行业的宝贵指标。如今，它已超过63.6％，这是自2021年以来的最高水平，正朝着关键阈值：64％。如果比特币在本月底设法维持高于此水平的优势，那么季后赛可能会受到损害，延迟甚至被压碎。这就是Rekt Capital所说的：

A close above 64% followed by a retest could turn this resistance zone into support.

接近64％的接近，然后进行重新测试，可以将此电阻区变成支撑。

In other words, once this threshold is crossed, bitcoin dominance could hold and even push towards historic levels close to 71%, as seen in 2019.

换句话说，一旦越过这个阈值，比特币的优势可以保持甚至朝着接近71％的历史水平上，如2019年所示。

This would leave little room for altcoins, already under pressure and risk being relegated to the background, limited in their gain potential. And this is despite a strong willingness to see altcoins take off. But the bitcoin performance, supported by a more active institutional market, could well crush this momentum. Rekt Capital continues:

这将使山寨币几乎没有空间，已经承受压力，风险被降级到背景，而其增益潜力有限。尽管这很愿意看到Altcoins脱颖而出。但是，受到更活跃的机构市场支持的比特币表现可能会破坏这一势头。 Rekt Capital继续：

If dominance remains stable above 64%, altcoins could find themselves in a dead end.

如果优势保持稳定在64％以上，Altcoins可能会发现自己处于死胡同。

Altcoins struggling: difficult comeback under pressure

山寨币挣扎：在压力下艰难的卷土重来

When bitcoin shines, altcoins fade. And even if BTC dominance has slightly dropped, altcoins struggle to catch up with their past highs. The bitcoin price recently reached a new historic high close to $94,000, but enthusiasm for altcoins has remained timid.

当比特币闪耀时，altcoins逐渐消失。即使BTC的优势略有下降，Altcoins也很难赶上他们过去的高点。比特币价格最近达到了新的历史高处接近94,000美元，但对山寨币的热情仍然胆怯。

As Kaiko Research highlights, « despite bitcoin’s resilience, many altcoins have yet to recover their 2021 and 2022 highs. » Small altcoins continue to suffer, with declines exceeding 30% on some projects.

正如Kaiko研究所强调的那样，«尽管比特币具有韧性，但许多山寨币尚未恢复其2021年和2022年的高点。 »小型山寨币继续受苦，某些项目的下降超过30％。

The performance gap is striking: major names like Solana (SOL) or XRP are experiencing some growth, but they cannot catch the momentum of bitcoin. As Danny_Crypton reminds us, « altcoins are entering an early phase of Altseason » — a phase marked by small increases.

性能差距令人震惊：诸如Solana（Sol）或XRP之类的主要名称正在经历一些增长，但它们无法抓住比特币的势头。正如Danny_crypton提醒我们的那样，“ Altcoins进入了Altseason的早期阶段”，这是一个以少量增长为标志的阶段。

But these performances remain very limited. As Danny warns, « bitcoin dominance remains one of the crucial factors to watch. »

但是这些表演仍然非常有限。正如丹尼（Danny）所警告的那样，«比特币的主导地位仍然是要关注的关键因素之一。 »»

This is because bitcoin dominance could still put a spanner in the works. Despite a resurgence of interest, altcoins still have to overcome this major obstacle: the omnipresence of bitcoin in the market. A few price increases are not enough for the altseason to truly take off.

这是因为比特币的优势仍然可以使扳手纳入其中。尽管有兴趣的复兴，但AltCoins仍然必须克服这一主要障碍：比特币在市场上的无所不能。价格上涨是不够的，即使是季后赛真正起飞。

Altcoin Window: a last chance before the door closes?

Altcoin窗口：门关闭前的最后机会？

The possibility of an altseason could however persist, provided that bitcoin dominance fluctuates around 64%. Rekt Capital mentions the possibility of a brief “altcoin window“. This short respite could allow altcoins to recover some ground, but this window seems to be closing faster as bitcoin strengthens its position.

但是，如果比特币优势波动约为64％，则可能会持续出现季前赛的可能性。 Rekt Capital提到了简短的“ Altcoin窗口”的可能性。这种短暂的喘息可能会使山寨币能够恢复某些地面，但是随着比特币增强其位置，该窗口似乎更快。

The gap between major altcoins and smaller ones is now more pronounced than ever. However, increased volatility coupled with persistent bitcoin dominance makes a true rise for altcoins difficult. As Kaiko Research highlights, « altcoin dominance remains concentrated on the top 10, representing nearly 64% of the total traded volume. »

现在，主要山寨币与较小的差距之间的差距比以往任何时候都更加明显。然而，增加的波动性以及持续的比特币优势使山寨币的真正上升变得困难。正如Kaiko研究所强调的那样，«Altcoin优势仍然集中在前10名上，占交易总量的近64％。 »»

A sign that even if liquidity is moving to other tokens, a large share remains reserved for high-cap projects.

一个迹象表明，即使流动性转移到其他代币，仍然有很大的份额保留给高额股项目。

So it seems that although altcoins still have a chance, the 64% threshold could well become a point of no return for their ambitions.

因此，尽管AltCoins仍然有机会，但64％的门槛很可能成为他们野心的回报。

In December 2024, an altseason triggered by stablecoins had captivated analysts, but today, bitcoin still dominates. If bitcoin dominance closes April above 64%, the space for an altcoin season is likely to shrink rapidly. May could clarify whether altcoins will get their chance or if bitcoin will keep the upper hand.

2024年12月，由Stablecoins触发的一个季节吸引了分析师，但如今，比特币仍然占据主导地位。如果比特币优势占据4月以上的64％以上，那么Altcoin季节的空间可能会迅速缩小。梅可以澄清山寨币是否会获得机会，或者比特币是否会保持上风。