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在4月初,美國政府宣布新職責引發了強烈的緊張局勢:行動和債券記錄了突然的折扣和波動性的增加
There Bank of Italy He has published his half -yearly relationship on financial stability, tracing a balance of growing uncertainty about global markets. At the beginning of April, the announcement of new duties by the US Administration triggered strong tensions: actions and bonds have recorded sudden discounts and volatility has increased, reducing expectations of world growth and raising systemic risks.
意大利銀行在金融穩定性上發表了他的半年關係,追溯了對全球市場不確定性日益確定的平衡。在4月初,美國政府宣布新的職責引發了巨大的緊張局勢:行動和債券已經記錄了突然的折扣和波動性,增加了對世界增長的期望和增加系統性風險的期望。
In the report, however, it is highlighted that Italy starts from relatively solid fundamentals: a “lively” labor market (albeit with signals of slowing down), an inflation under control and a positive financial position towards abroad have in fact led to an improvement in the Italian sovereign rating.
然而,在報告中,有人強調,意大利始於相對穩固的基本面:“活潑”的勞動力市場(儘管信號降低了,但受到控制的通貨膨脹以及對國外的積極財務狀況實際上導致了意大利主權評級的改善。
The risks for financial stability in Italy in 2025: what Bankitalia says
2025年意大利的金融穩定風險:Bankitalia說什麼
According to Bankitalia, overall i risks For the Italian system they remain moderate. Italian families show robustness: in 2024 aggregate financial wealth has increased and theaverage debt compared to income has droppedelements that at the moment limit their vulnerability (even if a possible braking of the economy could be crucial for reversing its trend). On the contrary, companies highlight signs of weakness: the overall profitability is falling and the ability to repay the debts has worsening, especially in the construction sector.
根據Bankitalia的說法,總的來說,我仍然有意大利系統的風險。意大利家庭表現出健壯性:2024年,財務財富的總和增加了,與收入相比,債務已下降,目前限制了其脆弱性(即使可能製動經濟可能對扭轉其趨勢至關重要)。相反,公司強調了弱點的跡象:總體盈利能力正在下降,償還債務的能力正在加劇,尤其是在建築部門。
Italian banks remain in general solid: in the second half of 2024 profits and capital equipment remained high, a factor that strengthens the overall resilience of the system in case of shock.
意大利銀行一般保持堅實:在2024年的下半年,利潤和資本設備仍然很高,這一因素可以增強系統的整體彈性,以免發生衝擊。
Certificates and computer attacks: the new vulnerabilities for Italian banks
證書和計算機攻擊:意大利銀行的新漏洞
The report underlines some emerging vulnerabilities. The IT and operational attacks aimed at banks were 119, a record level. At the same time, the share of complex financial products: about 85 billion euros are invested in certificateshigh -risk tools detained for over two thirds from retail investors.
該報告強調了一些新興漏洞。針對銀行的IT和運營攻擊是119,是創紀錄的水平。同時,複雜的金融產品的份額:大約850億歐元被投資於散戶投資者的三分之二以上的證書高風險工具。
This stock, the highest in Europe, and the increasing international commercial restrictions (although now we see signs of a certain rethinking by Trump) represent factors which, albeit so far well absorbed by the strong patrimonialization of the banks, require careful vigilance.
該股票是歐洲最高的股票,以及日益增長的國際商業限制(儘管現在我們看到特朗普重新思考的跡象)代表了因素,儘管這一因素迄今已被銀行的強烈遺產所吸收,但需要仔細的警惕。
Cryptocurrencies: Bankitalia alarm on the risks for markets
加密貨幣:Bankitalia警報市場風險
In Bankitalia’s report there is an in -depth analysis of theevolution of cryptocurrencies and on the relative risks for stability. The overall crypt market touched about 2,750 billion dollars At the end of March 2025, after an acceleration linked to the US elections and the measures of the new US administration in favor of digital currencies called dollars. Of this total over 60% consist of bitcoin, about 30% from other currencies without underlying assets, while only 9% are made up of stablecoin hooked to traditional currencies.
在Bankitalia的報告中,深入分析了加密貨幣的進化以及穩定性的相對風險。截至2025年3月底,在與美國大選的加速和新美國政府的措施中,共同匯率為“ Dollars”之後,整個地穴市場在2025年3月底觸及了約275億美元。在總數超過60%的情況下,比特幣組成,大約有30%的其他貨幣,而沒有潛在的資產,而只有9%的貨幣由掛在傳統貨幣上的Stablecoin組成。
Bankitalia warns that the rapid expansion of cryptocurrencies (whose value can swing a lot in a short time) involves “risks not only for investors, but potentially also for financial stability”.
Bankitalia警告說,加密貨幣的迅速擴張(其價值在短時間內可以大量搖擺)涉及“不僅對投資者有風險,而且可能對金融穩定的風險”。
The report also indicates that many Institutional investors (including banks, such as Intesa Sampaolo) have increased their exposure to cryptocurrencies: in particular, a high share of bitcoin is held by ETF broadcasters and by the treasures of non -financial companies, moved by the belief that the price of digital currency can rise. However, this strategy exposes them to the strong volatility of Bitcoin.
該報告還表明,許多機構投資者(包括銀行,例如Intesa Sampaolo)增加了他們對加密貨幣的影響:特別是,ETF廣播公司和非企業公司的珍寶持有很大的比特幣,這是由於認為數字貨幣價格可以上漲的信念而推動的。但是,這種策略使它們暴露於比特幣的強烈波動。
Another relevant component of the crypto risk derives from the regulatory factor: many exchange platforms and digital enterprises that hold cryptocurrencies are mainly based in the United States, China and the United Kingdom, with a still negligible presence in the euro area. This means that i Risks of governance And the protection of investors differ a lot between jurisdictions.
加密風險的另一個相關組成部分來自監管因素:許多持有加密貨幣的交換平台和數字企業主要基於美國,中國和英國,在歐元區的存在仍然可以忽略不計。這意味著我的治理風險和對投資者的保護在轄區之間有很大差異。
Because the dangers for global financial stability increase
因為全球金融穩定的危險增加
Internationally, the report draws an increasing risk framework. The so -called duties war He made the level of uncertainty about the markets splash. Bankitalia highlights that, immediately after the announcement of the new US duties of April, the trust of American consumers collapsed minimums since 2020an alarm bell for global growth. This worsening of trust, together with the rise in the costs of raw materials and other protectionist measures, has pushed the growth forecasts of theworld economy downwards.
在國際上,該報告提出了越來越多的風險框架。他被稱為“職責”戰爭,他對市場飛濺的不確定性程度。 Bankitalia強調,在4月份新的美國職責宣布後,美國消費者的信任立即崩潰了,自2020年以來,最低限度對全球增長。信任的惡化,以及原材料和其他貿易保護主義措施的成本的上升,將世界經濟的增長推動了下降。
In this context, Italy, while continuing to benefit from reduced spreads and a sovereign rating in improvement, remains vulnerable: “the high public debt and the poor growth of the Italian economy remain vulnerability factors”, reads the report.
在這種情況下,意大利在繼續受益於減少的差額和改善的主權評級,但仍然脆弱:“高公共債務和意大利經濟的不良增長仍然是脆弱性因素”。
A new global uncertainty factor indicated by the relationship concerns the digital coins issued by the authorities. Bankitalia warns that if these digital currencies become systemic dimensions (for example around 10% of the global crypt market), their possible default could trigger chain effects on international financial markets. In fact, in the euro area, a widespread use of stablecoin It could interfere with the traditional mechanisms of payments and with the same monetary sovereignty.
該關係所表明的一個新的全球不確定性因素涉及當局發布的數字硬幣。 Bankitalia警告說,如果這些數字貨幣成為系統性維度(例如,大約佔全球地穴市場的10%),它們可能的違約可能會觸發鏈條對國際金融市場的影響。實際上,在歐元區,穩定幣的廣泛使用可能會干擾傳統的付款機制和相同的貨幣主權。
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