There Bank of Italy He has published his half -yearly relationship on financial stability, tracing a balance of growing uncertainty about global markets

At the beginning of April, the announcement of new duties by the US Administration triggered strong tensions: actions and bonds have recorded sudden discounts and volatility has increased

There Bank of Italy He has published his half -yearly relationship on financial stability, tracing a balance of growing uncertainty about global markets. At the beginning of April, the announcement of new duties by the US Administration triggered strong tensions: actions and bonds have recorded sudden discounts and volatility has increased, reducing expectations of world growth and raising systemic risks.

In the report, however, it is highlighted that Italy starts from relatively solid fundamentals: a “lively” labor market (albeit with signals of slowing down), an inflation under control and a positive financial position towards abroad have in fact led to an improvement in the Italian sovereign rating.

The risks for financial stability in Italy in 2025: what Bankitalia says

According to Bankitalia, overall i risks For the Italian system they remain moderate. Italian families show robustness: in 2024 aggregate financial wealth has increased and theaverage debt compared to income has droppedelements that at the moment limit their vulnerability (even if a possible braking of the economy could be crucial for reversing its trend). On the contrary, companies highlight signs of weakness: the overall profitability is falling and the ability to repay the debts has worsening, especially in the construction sector.

Italian banks remain in general solid: in the second half of 2024 profits and capital equipment remained high, a factor that strengthens the overall resilience of the system in case of shock.

Certificates and computer attacks: the new vulnerabilities for Italian banks

The report underlines some emerging vulnerabilities. The IT and operational attacks aimed at banks were 119, a record level. At the same time, the share of complex financial products: about 85 billion euros are invested in certificateshigh -risk tools detained for over two thirds from retail investors.

This stock, the highest in Europe, and the increasing international commercial restrictions (although now we see signs of a certain rethinking by Trump) represent factors which, albeit so far well absorbed by the strong patrimonialization of the banks, require careful vigilance.

Cryptocurrencies: Bankitalia alarm on the risks for markets

In Bankitalia’s report there is an in -depth analysis of theevolution of cryptocurrencies and on the relative risks for stability. The overall crypt market touched about 2,750 billion dollars At the end of March 2025, after an acceleration linked to the US elections and the measures of the new US administration in favor of digital currencies called dollars. Of this total over 60% consist of bitcoin, about 30% from other currencies without underlying assets, while only 9% are made up of stablecoin hooked to traditional currencies.

Bankitalia warns that the rapid expansion of cryptocurrencies (whose value can swing a lot in a short time) involves “risks not only for investors, but potentially also for financial stability”.

The report also indicates that many Institutional investors (including banks, such as Intesa Sampaolo) have increased their exposure to cryptocurrencies: in particular, a high share of bitcoin is held by ETF broadcasters and by the treasures of non -financial companies, moved by the belief that the price of digital currency can rise. However, this strategy exposes them to the strong volatility of Bitcoin.

Another relevant component of the crypto risk derives from the regulatory factor: many exchange platforms and digital enterprises that hold cryptocurrencies are mainly based in the United States, China and the United Kingdom, with a still negligible presence in the euro area. This means that i Risks of governance And the protection of investors differ a lot between jurisdictions.

Because the dangers for global financial stability increase

Internationally, the report draws an increasing risk framework. The so -called duties war He made the level of uncertainty about the markets splash. Bankitalia highlights that, immediately after the announcement of the new US duties of April, the trust of American consumers collapsed minimums since 2020an alarm bell for global growth. This worsening of trust, together with the rise in the costs of raw materials and other protectionist measures, has pushed the growth forecasts of theworld economy downwards.

In this context, Italy, while continuing to benefit from reduced spreads and a sovereign rating in improvement, remains vulnerable: “the high public debt and the poor growth of the Italian economy remain vulnerability factors”, reads the report.

A new global uncertainty factor indicated by the relationship concerns the digital coins issued by the authorities. Bankitalia warns that if these digital currencies become systemic dimensions (for example around 10% of the global crypt market), their possible default could trigger chain effects on international financial markets. In fact, in the euro area, a widespread use of stablecoin It could interfere with the traditional mechanisms of payments and with the same monetary sovereignty.