針對比特幣（BTC）測量時，大多數山寨幣經歷了快速而係統的折舊

比特幣金融服務公司Swan最近的一項研究表明，大多數替代加密貨幣（Altcoins）經歷了快速而係統的折舊

Most alternative cryptocurrencies (altcoins) rapidly and systematically depreciate when measured against Bitcoin (BTC), according to a recent study by Swan, a Bitcoin financial services company.

根據比特幣金融服務公司Swan最近的一項研究，大多數替代加密貨幣（Altcoins）在針對比特幣（BTC）的測量中迅速而係統地貶值。

The findings, shared via X (formerly Twitter), highlight Bitcoin’s role as a more stable asset for capital preservation in the fluctuating cryptocurrency market.

通過X（以前為Twitter）共享的發現強調了比特幣作為波動加密貨幣市場中資本保存的更穩定資產的作用。

Over five years, the median altcoin reached a -90% drawdown in just 10-20 months.

在五年的時間裡，中位數替代幣在短短10-20個月內達到了-90％。

“The median altcoin reached a -90% drawdown in just 10–20 months. Among the top 300, only Monero took six years to depreciate by 90%.”

“中位數在短短10-20個月內達到了-90％的跌幅。在前300名中，只有蒙羅花了六年的時間貶值了90％。”

According to Swan’s data, the fastest collapsing tokens were Terra (LUNA1), Ontology Gas (ONG), and Bitgert (BRISE), all hitting the 90% drawdown mark in less than two months.

根據Swan的數據，最快的崩潰令牌是Terra（Luna1），本體學氣體（ONG）和Bitgert（Brise），所有這些都在不到兩個月的時間內達到了90％的下降標記。

Meanwhile, larger and more established altcoins were not immune to this trend. For instance, Cardano (ADA) and XRP (XRP) took 36 months to depreciate 90% from their record peak.

同時，較大，更既定的山寨幣並不能免疫這一趨勢。例如，Cardano（ADA）和XRP（XRP）花了36個月的時間從其創紀錄的峰值貶值90％。

Litecoin (LTC) experienced a gradual decline over 69 months, while Monero (XMR) saw the slowest drop, taking six years to reach a -90% drop.

Litecoin（LTC）在69個月內逐漸下降，而Monero（XMR）的下降速度最慢，需要6年才能達到-90％。

However, even the best-performing altcoin in the period is still down by 43% compared to BTC.

但是，與BTC相比，即使在此期間表現最好的山寨幣仍下降43％。

“Bitcoin remains the benchmark for capital preservation. These assets don’t hedge Bitcoin — they bleed against it,” Swan added.

斯旺補充說：“比特幣仍然是資本保存的基準。這些資產不會對沖比特幣 - 它們反對它。”

The analysis examined the performance of the top 300 altcoins. It focused on the time it takes for these assets to lose 90% of their value relative to Bitcoin after hitting their all-time highs (ATH).

該分析檢查了前300個山寨幣的性能。它的重點是這些資產在達到歷史最高點（ATH）後，這些資產的價值損失了90％的價值。

The analysis also covers 45 altcoins that have not yet experienced the 90% decline. While they have not yet “collapsed,” the data suggests they are merely delaying their inevitable losses.

該分析還涵蓋了尚未經歷90％下降的45個替代幣。儘管他們尚未“崩潰”，但數據表明他們只是延遲了不可避免的損失。

The average drawdown for these altcoins is 76% from their peak value.

這些山寨幣的平均降低量為76％。

“Even the best-performing altcoin in the period is still down by 43% compared to BTC. These assets don’t hedge Bitcoin — they bleed against it,” Swan added.

Swan補充說：“即使在此期間，與BTC相比，即使是表現最佳的山寨幣也下降了43％。這些資產不會對沖比特幣，它們會反對它。”

The firm also noted that long-term outperformance by altcoins is exceptionally rare, and survivorship bias has hidden the widespread decay across the broader market.

該公司還指出，AltCoins的長期表現異常罕見，生存偏見掩蓋了整個更廣闊市場的廣泛衰落。

“With performance like this, it’s astonishing that altcoins continue to exist. Then again, humans love gambling,” Swan executive John Haar remarked.

天鵝高管約翰·哈爾（John Haar）說：“有了這樣的表現，山寨幣繼續存在令人驚訝。然後，人類再次喜歡賭博。”

Growing Saturation In The Altcoin Market

Altcoin市場的飽和度越來越大

According to CoinMarketCap (CMC) data, over 1.8 million tokens have been created in just the past month. However, the vast majority of these tokens fail to deliver.

根據CoinMarketCap（CMC）數據，在過去一個月中，已經創建了超過180萬個令牌。但是，這些代幣中的絕大多數無法交付。

As BeInCrypto previously reported, 89% of tokens listed on Binance in 2025 are in the red.

正如Beincrypto先前報導的那樣，2025年在Binance上列出的令牌中有89％為紅色。

Thus, newer altcoins’ value is driven more by short-term trading and hype rather than any lasting fundamentals.

因此，較新的Altcoins的價值更多地由短期交易和炒作而不是任何持久的基本面。

In addition, this surge in the number of tokens has fragmented market liquidity. These factors have even delayed the long-anticipated “altcoin season.”

此外，代幣數量的激增使市場流動性分散。這些因素甚至延遲了期待已久的“ Altcoin季節”。

Yet, some analysts even argue that the traditional altcoin season may never return.

然而，一些分析師甚至認為傳統的Altcoin季節可能永遠不會回來。

This shift is largely due to Bitcoin’s increasing dominance in the market, bolstered by institutional adoption and growing regulatory attention.

這種轉變在很大程度上是由於比特幣在市場上的統治地位越來越高，這受到機構採用和不斷增長的監管關注的支持。

While Bitcoin solidifies its position as the dominant digital asset, the same cannot be said for altcoins, which struggle to maintain relevance and investor interest in the face of Bitcoin’s continued rise.

雖然比特幣鞏固了其作為主要數字資產的地位，但對於面對比特幣的持續增長而努力保持相關性和投資者的興趣也不能說。