针对比特币（BTC）测量时，大多数山寨币经历了快速而系统的折旧

比特币金融服务公司Swan最近的一项研究表明，大多数替代加密货币（Altcoins）经历了快速而系统的折旧

Most alternative cryptocurrencies (altcoins) rapidly and systematically depreciate when measured against Bitcoin (BTC), according to a recent study by Swan, a Bitcoin financial services company.

根据比特币金融服务公司Swan最近的一项研究，大多数替代加密货币（Altcoins）在针对比特币（BTC）的测量中迅速而系统地贬值。

The findings, shared via X (formerly Twitter), highlight Bitcoin’s role as a more stable asset for capital preservation in the fluctuating cryptocurrency market.

通过X（以前为Twitter）共享的发现强调了比特币作为波动加密货币市场中资本保存的更稳定资产的作用。

Over five years, the median altcoin reached a -90% drawdown in just 10-20 months.

在五年的时间里，中位数替代币在短短10-20个月内达到了-90％。

“The median altcoin reached a -90% drawdown in just 10–20 months. Among the top 300, only Monero took six years to depreciate by 90%.”

“中位数在短短10-20个月内达到了-90％的跌幅。在前300名中，只有蒙罗花了六年的时间贬值了90％。”

According to Swan’s data, the fastest collapsing tokens were Terra (LUNA1), Ontology Gas (ONG), and Bitgert (BRISE), all hitting the 90% drawdown mark in less than two months.

根据Swan的数据，最快的崩溃令牌是Terra（Luna1），本体学气体（ONG）和Bitgert（Brise），所有这些都在不到两个月的时间内达到了90％的下降标记。

Meanwhile, larger and more established altcoins were not immune to this trend. For instance, Cardano (ADA) and XRP (XRP) took 36 months to depreciate 90% from their record peak.

同时，较大，更既定的山寨币并不能免疫这一趋势。例如，Cardano（ADA）和XRP（XRP）花了36个月的时间从其创纪录的峰值贬值90％。

Litecoin (LTC) experienced a gradual decline over 69 months, while Monero (XMR) saw the slowest drop, taking six years to reach a -90% drop.

Litecoin（LTC）在69个月内逐渐下降，而Monero（XMR）的下降速度最慢，需要6年才能达到-90％。

However, even the best-performing altcoin in the period is still down by 43% compared to BTC.

但是，与BTC相比，即使在此期间表现最好的山寨币仍下降43％。

“Bitcoin remains the benchmark for capital preservation. These assets don’t hedge Bitcoin — they bleed against it,” Swan added.

斯旺补充说：“比特币仍然是资本保存的基准。这些资产不会对冲比特币 - 它们反对它。”

The analysis examined the performance of the top 300 altcoins. It focused on the time it takes for these assets to lose 90% of their value relative to Bitcoin after hitting their all-time highs (ATH).

该分析检查了前300个山寨币的性能。它的重点是这些资产在达到历史最高点（ATH）后，这些资产的价值损失了90％的价值。

The analysis also covers 45 altcoins that have not yet experienced the 90% decline. While they have not yet “collapsed,” the data suggests they are merely delaying their inevitable losses.

该分析还涵盖了尚未经历90％下降的45个替代币。尽管他们尚未“崩溃”，但数据表明他们只是延迟了不可避免的损失。

The average drawdown for these altcoins is 76% from their peak value.

这些山寨币的平均降低量为76％。

“Even the best-performing altcoin in the period is still down by 43% compared to BTC. These assets don’t hedge Bitcoin — they bleed against it,” Swan added.

Swan补充说：“即使在此期间，与BTC相比，即使是表现最佳的山寨币也下降了43％。这些资产不会对冲比特币，它们会反对它。”

The firm also noted that long-term outperformance by altcoins is exceptionally rare, and survivorship bias has hidden the widespread decay across the broader market.

该公司还指出，AltCoins的长期表现异常罕见，生存偏见掩盖了整个更广阔市场的广泛衰落。

“With performance like this, it’s astonishing that altcoins continue to exist. Then again, humans love gambling,” Swan executive John Haar remarked.

天鹅高管约翰·哈尔（John Haar）说：“有了这样的表现，山寨币继续存在令人惊讶。然后，人类再次喜欢赌博。”

Growing Saturation In The Altcoin Market

Altcoin市场的饱和度越来越大

According to CoinMarketCap (CMC) data, over 1.8 million tokens have been created in just the past month. However, the vast majority of these tokens fail to deliver.

根据CoinMarketCap（CMC）数据，在过去一个月中，已经创建了超过180万个令牌。但是，这些代币中的绝大多数无法交付。

As BeInCrypto previously reported, 89% of tokens listed on Binance in 2025 are in the red.

正如Beincrypto先前报道的那样，2025年在Binance上列出的令牌中有89％为红色。

Thus, newer altcoins’ value is driven more by short-term trading and hype rather than any lasting fundamentals.

因此，较新的Altcoins的价值更多地由短期交易和炒作而不是任何持久的基本面。

In addition, this surge in the number of tokens has fragmented market liquidity. These factors have even delayed the long-anticipated “altcoin season.”

此外，代币数量的激增使市场流动性分散。这些因素甚至延迟了期待已久的“ Altcoin季节”。

Yet, some analysts even argue that the traditional altcoin season may never return.

然而，一些分析师甚至认为传统的Altcoin季节可能永远不会回来。

This shift is largely due to Bitcoin’s increasing dominance in the market, bolstered by institutional adoption and growing regulatory attention.

这种转变在很大程度上是由于比特币在市场上的统治地位越来越高，这受到机构采用和不断增长的监管关注的支持。

While Bitcoin solidifies its position as the dominant digital asset, the same cannot be said for altcoins, which struggle to maintain relevance and investor interest in the face of Bitcoin’s continued rise.

虽然比特币巩固了其作为主要数字资产的地位，但对于面对比特币的持续增长而努力保持相关性和投资者的兴趣也不能说。