Altcoin ETF夏季即將到來，Solana領先於批准賠率

彭博社的ETF分析師埃里克·巴爾庫納斯（Eric Balchunas）將市場的情緒標記為“ altcoin ETF夏季”。

June 11, 2025

2025年6月11日

The crypto market entered June with strong optimism surrounding altcoin ETFs, especially for Solana, Litecoin, and XRP. Among the latest analysis from Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas, Solana and Litecoin have a 90% chance of spot ETF approval, while XRP follows closely at 85%. Dogecoin shows a strong 80% possibility, and other altcoins like Cardano, Polkadot, HBAR, and Avalanche have a 75% likelihood. However, newer assets such as Sui are less likely, with only a 60% chance. Tron's ETF review timeline seems to be lagging, with no active expectations before 2026. As investor appetite grows, the ETF liquidity landscape is expanding rapidly. This increased optimism may lead to faster institutional entry into altcoin exposure through regulated products like spot ETFs.

加密貨幣市場圍繞Altcoin ETF，尤其是Solana，Litecoin和XRP，越來越樂觀。在彭博ETF分析師Eric Balchunas的最新分析中，Solana和Litecoin具有90％的現場ETF批准機會，而XRP的次數為85％。 Dogecoin的可能性很強，其他AltCoins（如Cardano，Polkadot，Hbar和Avalanche）的可能性為75％。但是，諸如SUI之類的新資產的可能性較小，機會只有60％。 Tron的ETF評論時間表似乎落後，在2026年之前沒有積極的期望。隨著投資者的胃口的增長，ETF流動性格局正在迅速擴大。這種提高的樂觀可能會導致通過SPOT ETF（例如ETF）等受調節產品的機構進入Altcoin的曝光速度。

In the past 24 hours, Ethereum has dominated the derivatives trading space, according to CoinGlass data. ETH contract volume reached $111 billion, surpassing Bitcoin's $87.5 billion volume. In terms of liquidations, Ethereum also took the lead with $131 million compared to Bitcoin's $62 million. This surge highlights Ethereum's interest among traders and positions it at the forefront ahead of a potential ETH ETF approval. Market analysts view this as a bullish indicator for Ethereum's performance in the coming period.

根據Coinglass數據，在過去的24小時內，以太坊佔據了衍生品交易空間。 ETH合同量達到1,110億美元，超過了比特幣的875億美元數量。在清算方面，以太坊還以1.31億美元的價格領先，而比特幣的6200萬美元。這種激增強調了以太坊在交易者中的興趣，並在潛在的ETH ETF批准之前將其定位在最前沿。市場分析師認為這是以太坊在未來時期表現的看漲指標。

ETH's growing derivative activity also signifies the role of institutional demand, as these players are increasing their leverage-based exposure. Ethereum's role in the DeFi ecosystem and upcoming staking developments might be contributing to this momentum. Furthermore, crypto enthusiasts are encouraging the SEC to move faster on ETF approvals. Clearer regulations boost confidence, which in turn increases the chances for the launch of spot crypto ETFs. Along with these, the U.S.-China trading is taking new shifts, uplifting the crypto industry.

ETH的增長衍生品活動也表示機構需求的作用，因為這些參與者正在增加其基於槓桿率的風險。以太坊在Defi生態系統中的作用和即將到來的Staking Developments可能會促進這一勢頭。此外，加密愛好者正在鼓勵SEC在ETF批准上更快。更清晰的法規提高了信心，從而增加了發射斑點加密ETF的機會。隨之而來的是，美中的交易正在進行新的轉變，使加密貨幣行業提升。

Cas Abbé, Web3 Growth Manager at Binance, highlighted three key scenarios for the upcoming CPI data, expected on June 11 at 8:30 AM ET. The expected CPI rate is 2.5%, up from last month's 2.3%.

Binance的Web3增長經理CasAbbé強調了即將到來的CPI數據的三個關鍵方案，預計將於6月11日上午8:30美國東部時間。預期的CPI利率為2.5％，高於上個月的2.3％。

If CPI > 2.5%, a sell-off is likely, as the chances of a Fed rate cut decrease. If CPI = 2.5%, then a temporary dip is expected, which could present an opportunity to buy.

如果CPI> 2.5％，則可能會出售，因為降低美聯儲降低率的機會。如果CPI = 2.5％，則預計會有臨時蘸醬，這可能會提供購買機會。

Additionally, if CPI < 2.5%, the market is likely to show a pump-and-dump pattern, closing the day in green.

此外，如果CPI <2.5％，則市場可能會顯示出泵和降低的模式，以綠色結束。

Ultimately, only a CPI figure above 2.5% poses a threat to bullish sentiment. In all other cases, ETF liquidity could continue to strengthen, especially for altcoins that are riding high on ETF speculation.

最終，只有高於2.5％的CPI數字對看漲情緒構成威脅。在所有其他情況下，ETF流動性都可以繼續加強，特別是對於在ETF投機方面佔據高度的山寨幣。

If we look at the 200-ATR index, which measures Bitcoin's volatility, it has dropped significantly, according to Axel Adler, market analyst at CryptoQuant. This decline in volatility signals that traders are approaching the market with caution as they await the U.S. inflation data. Lower volatility usually indicates an upcoming breakout or a strong directional move.

CryptoQuant市場分析師Axel Adler表示，如果我們看一下測量比特幣波動率的200-ATR指數，它已經大大下降。波動性信號的下降表明，交易者在等待美國通貨膨脹數據時謹慎地接近市場。較低的波動率通常表示即將發生的突破或強大的方向移動。

If the CPI figures turn out to be higher than expected, the market could see reduced expectations for near-term rate cuts. This shift would put pressure on both Bitcoin and altcoin prices, especially those awaiting ETF approval. Bitcoin's quiet phase reflects the broader risk-off sentiment, even as Ethereum and other assets continue showing strength in ETF-related speculation.

如果CPI數字的數字比預期的要高，那麼市場可能會降低對近期降低利率的期望。這種轉變將對比特幣和替代幣價格施加壓力，尤其是那些等待ETF批准的人。比特幣的安靜階段反映了更廣泛的風險情緒，即使以太坊和其他資產繼續顯示與ETF相關的猜測的強度。

Overall, market optimism around the ETH ETF and broader institutional demand is dominant. Altcoins like Solana, Litecoin, and XRP are on the verge of major institutional breakthroughs, evident from the huge volumes in the derivatives market for ETH over BTC. However, June 11's CPI reading could act as a turning point. A higher-than-expected figure may cool the current momentum and reduce hopes of policy easing.

總體而言，圍繞ETH ETF和更廣泛的機構需求的市場樂觀是主導的。 Solana，Litecoin和XRP等山寨幣正處於重大機構突破的邊緣，這可以從BTC的ETH衍生品市場的巨大數量中可以明顯看出。但是，6月11日的CPI閱讀可能是一個轉折點。超過預期的數字可能會降低當前動力並減少政策放鬆的希望。

Volatility in Bitcoin remains low, indicating that traders are awaiting confirmation before placing new bets. For now, ETF enthusiasm leads the sentiment. But macro data, particularly inflation trends, will determine whether the rally sustains or stalls in the short term.

比特幣的波動率仍然很低，表明交易者正在等待新賭注之前等待確認。就目前而言，ETF的熱情引起了情感。但是宏觀數據，尤其是通貨膨脹趨勢，將決定集會在短期內持續還是失速。