Altcoin ETF夏季即将到来，Solana领先于批准赔率

彭博社的ETF分析师埃里克·巴尔库纳斯（Eric Balchunas）将市场的情绪标记为“ altcoin ETF夏季”。

June 11, 2025

2025年6月11日

The crypto market entered June with strong optimism surrounding altcoin ETFs, especially for Solana, Litecoin, and XRP. Among the latest analysis from Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas, Solana and Litecoin have a 90% chance of spot ETF approval, while XRP follows closely at 85%. Dogecoin shows a strong 80% possibility, and other altcoins like Cardano, Polkadot, HBAR, and Avalanche have a 75% likelihood. However, newer assets such as Sui are less likely, with only a 60% chance. Tron's ETF review timeline seems to be lagging, with no active expectations before 2026. As investor appetite grows, the ETF liquidity landscape is expanding rapidly. This increased optimism may lead to faster institutional entry into altcoin exposure through regulated products like spot ETFs.

加密货币市场围绕Altcoin ETF，尤其是Solana，Litecoin和XRP，越来越乐观。在彭博ETF分析师Eric Balchunas的最新分析中，Solana和Litecoin具有90％的现场ETF批准机会，而XRP的次数为85％。 Dogecoin的可能性很强，其他AltCoins（如Cardano，Polkadot，Hbar和Avalanche）的可能性为75％。但是，诸如SUI之类的新资产的可能性较小，机会只有60％。 Tron的ETF评论时间表似乎落后，在2026年之前没有积极的期望。随着投资者的胃口的增长，ETF流动性格局正在迅速扩大。这种提高的乐观可能会导致通过SPOT ETF（例如ETF）等受调节产品的机构进入Altcoin的曝光速度。

In the past 24 hours, Ethereum has dominated the derivatives trading space, according to CoinGlass data. ETH contract volume reached $111 billion, surpassing Bitcoin's $87.5 billion volume. In terms of liquidations, Ethereum also took the lead with $131 million compared to Bitcoin's $62 million. This surge highlights Ethereum's interest among traders and positions it at the forefront ahead of a potential ETH ETF approval. Market analysts view this as a bullish indicator for Ethereum's performance in the coming period.

根据Coinglass数据，在过去的24小时内，以太坊占据了衍生品交易空间。 ETH合同量达到1,110亿美元，超过了比特币的875亿美元数量。在清算方面，以太坊还以1.31亿美元的价格领先，而比特币的6200万美元。这种激增强调了以太坊在交易者中的兴趣，并在潜在的ETH ETF批准之前将其定位在最前沿。市场分析师认为这是以太坊在未来时期表现的看涨指标。

ETH's growing derivative activity also signifies the role of institutional demand, as these players are increasing their leverage-based exposure. Ethereum's role in the DeFi ecosystem and upcoming staking developments might be contributing to this momentum. Furthermore, crypto enthusiasts are encouraging the SEC to move faster on ETF approvals. Clearer regulations boost confidence, which in turn increases the chances for the launch of spot crypto ETFs. Along with these, the U.S.-China trading is taking new shifts, uplifting the crypto industry.

ETH的增长衍生品活动也表示机构需求的作用，因为这些参与者正在增加其基于杠杆率的风险。以太坊在Defi生态系统中的作用和即将到来的Staking Developments可能会促进这一势头。此外，加密爱好者正在鼓励SEC在ETF批准上更快。更清晰的法规提高了信心，从而增加了发射斑点加密ETF的机会。随之而来的是，美中的交易正在进行新的转变，使加密货币行业提升。

Cas Abbé, Web3 Growth Manager at Binance, highlighted three key scenarios for the upcoming CPI data, expected on June 11 at 8:30 AM ET. The expected CPI rate is 2.5%, up from last month's 2.3%.

Binance的Web3增长经理CasAbbé强调了即将到来的CPI数据的三个关键方案，预计将于6月11日上午8:30美国东部时间。预期的CPI利率为2.5％，高于上个月的2.3％。

If CPI > 2.5%, a sell-off is likely, as the chances of a Fed rate cut decrease. If CPI = 2.5%, then a temporary dip is expected, which could present an opportunity to buy.

如果CPI> 2.5％，则可能会出售，因为降低美联储降低率的机会。如果CPI = 2.5％，则预计会有临时蘸酱，这可能会提供购买机会。

Additionally, if CPI < 2.5%, the market is likely to show a pump-and-dump pattern, closing the day in green.

此外，如果CPI <2.5％，则市场可能会显示出泵和降低的模式，以绿色结束。

Ultimately, only a CPI figure above 2.5% poses a threat to bullish sentiment. In all other cases, ETF liquidity could continue to strengthen, especially for altcoins that are riding high on ETF speculation.

最终，只有高于2.5％的CPI数字对看涨情绪构成威胁。在所有其他情况下，ETF流动性都可以继续加强，特别是对于在ETF投机方面占据高度的山寨币。

If we look at the 200-ATR index, which measures Bitcoin's volatility, it has dropped significantly, according to Axel Adler, market analyst at CryptoQuant. This decline in volatility signals that traders are approaching the market with caution as they await the U.S. inflation data. Lower volatility usually indicates an upcoming breakout or a strong directional move.

CryptoQuant市场分析师Axel Adler表示，如果我们看一下测量比特币波动率的200-ATR指数，它已经大大下降。波动性信号的下降表明，交易者在等待美国通货膨胀数据时谨慎地接近市场。较低的波动率通常表示即将发生的突破或强大的方向移动。

If the CPI figures turn out to be higher than expected, the market could see reduced expectations for near-term rate cuts. This shift would put pressure on both Bitcoin and altcoin prices, especially those awaiting ETF approval. Bitcoin's quiet phase reflects the broader risk-off sentiment, even as Ethereum and other assets continue showing strength in ETF-related speculation.

如果CPI数字的数字比预期的要高，那么市场可能会降低对近期降低利率的期望。这种转变将对比特币和替代币价格施加压力，尤其是那些等待ETF批准的人。比特币的安静阶段反映了更广泛的风险情绪，即使以太坊和其他资产继续显示与ETF相关的猜测的强度。

Overall, market optimism around the ETH ETF and broader institutional demand is dominant. Altcoins like Solana, Litecoin, and XRP are on the verge of major institutional breakthroughs, evident from the huge volumes in the derivatives market for ETH over BTC. However, June 11's CPI reading could act as a turning point. A higher-than-expected figure may cool the current momentum and reduce hopes of policy easing.

总体而言，围绕ETH ETF和更广泛的机构需求的市场乐观是主导的。 Solana，Litecoin和XRP等山寨币正处于重大机构突破的边缘，这可以从BTC的ETH衍生品市场的巨大数量中可以明显看出。但是，6月11日的CPI阅读可能是一个转折点。超过预期的数字可能会降低当前动力并减少政策放松的希望。

Volatility in Bitcoin remains low, indicating that traders are awaiting confirmation before placing new bets. For now, ETF enthusiasm leads the sentiment. But macro data, particularly inflation trends, will determine whether the rally sustains or stalls in the short term.

比特币的波动率仍然很低，表明交易者正在等待新赌注之前等待确认。就目前而言，ETF的热情引起了情感。但是宏观数据，尤其是通货膨胀趋势，将决定集会在短期内持续还是失速。