Altcoin ETF Summer Nearing, Solana Leads in Approval Odds

Eric Balchunas, Bloomberg's ETF analyst, has labeled the market mood as an incoming “Altcoin ETF Summer.”

June 11, 2025

The crypto market entered June with strong optimism surrounding altcoin ETFs, especially for Solana, Litecoin, and XRP. Among the latest analysis from Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas, Solana and Litecoin have a 90% chance of spot ETF approval, while XRP follows closely at 85%. Dogecoin shows a strong 80% possibility, and other altcoins like Cardano, Polkadot, HBAR, and Avalanche have a 75% likelihood. However, newer assets such as Sui are less likely, with only a 60% chance. Tron's ETF review timeline seems to be lagging, with no active expectations before 2026. As investor appetite grows, the ETF liquidity landscape is expanding rapidly. This increased optimism may lead to faster institutional entry into altcoin exposure through regulated products like spot ETFs.

In the past 24 hours, Ethereum has dominated the derivatives trading space, according to CoinGlass data. ETH contract volume reached $111 billion, surpassing Bitcoin's $87.5 billion volume. In terms of liquidations, Ethereum also took the lead with $131 million compared to Bitcoin's $62 million. This surge highlights Ethereum's interest among traders and positions it at the forefront ahead of a potential ETH ETF approval. Market analysts view this as a bullish indicator for Ethereum's performance in the coming period.

ETH's growing derivative activity also signifies the role of institutional demand, as these players are increasing their leverage-based exposure. Ethereum's role in the DeFi ecosystem and upcoming staking developments might be contributing to this momentum. Furthermore, crypto enthusiasts are encouraging the SEC to move faster on ETF approvals. Clearer regulations boost confidence, which in turn increases the chances for the launch of spot crypto ETFs. Along with these, the U.S.-China trading is taking new shifts, uplifting the crypto industry.

Cas Abbé, Web3 Growth Manager at Binance, highlighted three key scenarios for the upcoming CPI data, expected on June 11 at 8:30 AM ET. The expected CPI rate is 2.5%, up from last month's 2.3%.

If CPI > 2.5%, a sell-off is likely, as the chances of a Fed rate cut decrease. If CPI = 2.5%, then a temporary dip is expected, which could present an opportunity to buy.

Additionally, if CPI < 2.5%, the market is likely to show a pump-and-dump pattern, closing the day in green.

Ultimately, only a CPI figure above 2.5% poses a threat to bullish sentiment. In all other cases, ETF liquidity could continue to strengthen, especially for altcoins that are riding high on ETF speculation.

If we look at the 200-ATR index, which measures Bitcoin's volatility, it has dropped significantly, according to Axel Adler, market analyst at CryptoQuant. This decline in volatility signals that traders are approaching the market with caution as they await the U.S. inflation data. Lower volatility usually indicates an upcoming breakout or a strong directional move.

If the CPI figures turn out to be higher than expected, the market could see reduced expectations for near-term rate cuts. This shift would put pressure on both Bitcoin and altcoin prices, especially those awaiting ETF approval. Bitcoin's quiet phase reflects the broader risk-off sentiment, even as Ethereum and other assets continue showing strength in ETF-related speculation.

Overall, market optimism around the ETH ETF and broader institutional demand is dominant. Altcoins like Solana, Litecoin, and XRP are on the verge of major institutional breakthroughs, evident from the huge volumes in the derivatives market for ETH over BTC. However, June 11's CPI reading could act as a turning point. A higher-than-expected figure may cool the current momentum and reduce hopes of policy easing.

Volatility in Bitcoin remains low, indicating that traders are awaiting confirmation before placing new bets. For now, ETF enthusiasm leads the sentiment. But macro data, particularly inflation trends, will determine whether the rally sustains or stalls in the short term.