Alt季節什麼時候到達？比特幣的主導地位，宏觀經濟的逆風和監管不確定性延遲了山寨幣的激增

幾個月來，隨著Altcoins的湧現，加密貨幣交易者一直在焦急的價格圖表。但是，儘管看漲了預測和簡短的集會，但ALT季節尚未實現。

Crypto traders have eagerly awaited the arrival of "alt season," where altcoins would experience a surge in price. However, despite bullish predictions and brief rallies, alt season has yet to materialize.

加密交易者熱切期待“ ALT季節”的到來，Altcoins將會經歷價格上漲。但是，儘管看漲了預測和簡短的集會，但ALT季節尚未實現。

Bitcoin’s dominance—its share of the total crypto market capitalization—has remained above 60% in 2024, a level not seen since the 2017 bull run. This dominance reflects the market’s strong preference for Bitcoin due to its stability and widespread institutional adoption.

比特幣的統治地位 - 它在加密貨幣市值總資本中的份額 - 在2024年仍然超過60％，這是自2017年公牛奔跑以來未見的水平。這種主導地位反映了市場對比特幣的強烈偏愛，這是由於其穩定性和廣泛的機構採用。

As analyst Benjamin Cowen notes, "altcoins typically start rallying after Bitcoin completes its parabolic rise." With BTC still setting new all-time highs, there’s no immediate reason for investors to turn to altcoins.

正如分析師本傑明·科文（Benjamin Cowen）指出的那樣：“比特幣完成了拋物線質升高後，山寨幣通常開始集會。”隨著BTC仍在設定新的歷史新高，投資者沒有立即的理由轉向Altcoins。

Moreover, macroeconomic headwinds are also a factor. The Federal Reserve’s tight control over liquidity throughout 2024 stands in stark contrast to the flood of liquidity seen during previous altcoin seasons, when meme and DeFi tokens surged.

此外，宏觀經濟的逆風也是一個因素。美聯儲對整個2024年的流動性的嚴格控制與以前的Altcoin季節中的流動性氾濫形成鮮明對比，當時Meme和Defi令牌迅速飆升。

This lack of liquidity and oversupply of altcoins has created a crowded market, where only tokens with outstanding utility or viral popularity can sustain gains—a far cry from the ICO boom of 2017 or the NFT mania of 2021.

缺乏流動性和對山寨幣的供應過多的市場創造了一個擁擠的市場，在這裡，只有具有傑出的效用或病毒性的代幣可以維持增長 - 與2017年ICO繁榮或2021年的NFT狂熱相去甚遠。

Traditionally, altcoin seasons are also fueled by retail FOMO (fear of missing out). But in 2025, retail participation in the market is significantly weaker than in past cycles.

傳統上，零售FOMO（擔心錯過）也為Altcoin季節加油。但是在2025年，零售參與市場比過去的周期要弱得多。

Without the energy of FOMO-driven retail traders to drive up altcoins, these tokens lack the fuel to ignite a sustained rally.

如果沒有FOMO驅動的零售商人推動山寨幣的能量，這些令牌缺乏點燃持續集會的燃料。

Another factor is regulatory uncertainty. While the Trump administration’s pro-crypto stance has fueled optimism, progress on passing a comprehensive crypto bill or applying for an altcoin ETF has been slow.

另一個因素是監管不確定性。儘管特朗普政府的親克賴普托立場激發了樂觀，但通過一項全面的加密法案或申請Altcoin ETF的進展卻很慢。

Until regulators grant approval for an altcoin ETF or provide greater clarity on the legal status of cryptocurrencies, this uncertainty will likely continue to favor Bitcoin and major stablecoins over smaller altcoins.

在監管機構批准Altcoin ETF或對加密貨幣的法律地位更加清晰之前，這種不確定性可能會繼續偏愛比特幣和主要的穩定股，而不是較小的AltCoins。

However, hope is not lost. History shows that altcoin seasons typically occur in the final year of Bitcoin’s four-year cycle.

但是，希望不會丟失。歷史表明，Altcoin季節通常發生在比特幣四年周期的最後一年。

The current bull market began in November 2022 with the Bitcoin halving, and according to the common understanding, the next altcoin season should take place in 2025, marking the third year of this bull market.

當前的牛市始於2022年11月，比特幣減半，根據普遍的理解，下一個山寨幣季節應在2025年舉行，標誌著該牛市的第三年。

While a delay in alt season is not unprecedented, the question of "when" remains a hot topic of discussion among traders and analysts.

儘管ALT季節的延遲並非空前，但“何時”仍然是交易者和分析師之間討論的熱門話題。

In the meantime, patience and selective investment in projects with strong fundamentals—such as AI, DeFi, or Layer-2 solutions—are key at this moment. As the crypto adage goes: "Time in the market beats trying to time it."

同時，耐心和選擇性投資對具有強大基礎知識（例如AI，DEFI或第2層解決方案）的項目至關重要。正如加密格言的那樣，“市場上的時間都在試圖安排時間。”

Stay tuned, proceed with caution, and keep an eye on Bitcoin dominance. The clock is ticking for the alt season—it’s a matter of when, not if.

請繼續關注，謹慎行事，並關注比特幣的優勢。時鐘在ALT季節中滴答作響，這是何時的問題，而不是。