Alt季节什么时候到达？比特币的主导地位，宏观经济的逆风和监管不确定性延迟了山寨币的激增

几个月来，随着Altcoins的涌现，加密货币交易者一直在焦急的价格图表。但是，尽管看涨了预测和简短的集会，但ALT季节尚未实现。

Crypto traders have eagerly awaited the arrival of "alt season," where altcoins would experience a surge in price. However, despite bullish predictions and brief rallies, alt season has yet to materialize.

加密交易者热切期待“ ALT季节”的到来，Altcoins将会经历价格上涨。但是，尽管看涨了预测和简短的集会，但ALT季节尚未实现。

Bitcoin’s dominance—its share of the total crypto market capitalization—has remained above 60% in 2024, a level not seen since the 2017 bull run. This dominance reflects the market’s strong preference for Bitcoin due to its stability and widespread institutional adoption.

比特币的统治地位 - 它在加密货币市值总资本中的份额 - 在2024年仍然超过60％，这是自2017年公牛奔跑以来未见的水平。这种主导地位反映了市场对比特币的强烈偏爱，这是由于其稳定性和广泛的机构采用。

As analyst Benjamin Cowen notes, "altcoins typically start rallying after Bitcoin completes its parabolic rise." With BTC still setting new all-time highs, there’s no immediate reason for investors to turn to altcoins.

正如分析师本杰明·科文（Benjamin Cowen）指出的那样：“比特币完成了抛物线质升高后，山寨币通常开始集会。”随着BTC仍在设定新的历史新高，投资者没有立即的理由转向Altcoins。

Moreover, macroeconomic headwinds are also a factor. The Federal Reserve’s tight control over liquidity throughout 2024 stands in stark contrast to the flood of liquidity seen during previous altcoin seasons, when meme and DeFi tokens surged.

此外，宏观经济的逆风也是一个因素。美联储对整个2024年的流动性的严格控制与以前的Altcoin季节中的流动性泛滥形成鲜明对比，当时Meme和Defi令牌迅速飙升。

This lack of liquidity and oversupply of altcoins has created a crowded market, where only tokens with outstanding utility or viral popularity can sustain gains—a far cry from the ICO boom of 2017 or the NFT mania of 2021.

缺乏流动性和对山寨币的供应过多的市场创造了一个拥挤的市场，在这里，只有具有杰出的效用或病毒性的代币可以维持增长 - 与2017年ICO繁荣或2021年的NFT狂热相去甚远。

Traditionally, altcoin seasons are also fueled by retail FOMO (fear of missing out). But in 2025, retail participation in the market is significantly weaker than in past cycles.

传统上，零售FOMO（担心错过）也为Altcoin季节加油。但是在2025年，零售参与市场比过去的周期要弱得多。

Without the energy of FOMO-driven retail traders to drive up altcoins, these tokens lack the fuel to ignite a sustained rally.

如果没有FOMO驱动的零售商人推动山寨币的能量，这些令牌缺乏点燃持续集会的燃料。

Another factor is regulatory uncertainty. While the Trump administration’s pro-crypto stance has fueled optimism, progress on passing a comprehensive crypto bill or applying for an altcoin ETF has been slow.

另一个因素是监管不确定性。尽管特朗普政府的亲克赖普托立场激发了乐观，但通过一项全面的加密法案或申请Altcoin ETF的进展却很慢。

Until regulators grant approval for an altcoin ETF or provide greater clarity on the legal status of cryptocurrencies, this uncertainty will likely continue to favor Bitcoin and major stablecoins over smaller altcoins.

在监管机构批准Altcoin ETF或对加密货币的法律地位更加清晰之前，这种不确定性可能会继续偏爱比特币和主要的稳定股，而不是较小的AltCoins。

However, hope is not lost. History shows that altcoin seasons typically occur in the final year of Bitcoin’s four-year cycle.

但是，希望不会丢失。历史表明，Altcoin季节通常发生在比特币四年周期的最后一年。

The current bull market began in November 2022 with the Bitcoin halving, and according to the common understanding, the next altcoin season should take place in 2025, marking the third year of this bull market.

当前的牛市始于2022年11月，比特币减半，根据普遍的理解，下一个山寨币季节应在2025年举行，标志着该牛市的第三年。

While a delay in alt season is not unprecedented, the question of "when" remains a hot topic of discussion among traders and analysts.

尽管ALT季节的延迟并非空前，但“何时”仍然是交易者和分析师之间讨论的热门话题。

In the meantime, patience and selective investment in projects with strong fundamentals—such as AI, DeFi, or Layer-2 solutions—are key at this moment. As the crypto adage goes: "Time in the market beats trying to time it."

同时，耐心和选择性投资对具有强大基础知识（例如AI，DEFI或第2层解决方案）的项目至关重要。正如加密格言的那样，“市场上的时间都在试图安排时间。”

Stay tuned, proceed with caution, and keep an eye on Bitcoin dominance. The clock is ticking for the alt season—it’s a matter of when, not if.

请继续关注，谨慎行事，并关注比特币的优势。时钟在ALT季节中滴答作响，这是何时的问题，而不是。