Gold could reach US$4,000 per ounce by 2025

According to a new report by Bybit and FXStreet, the world’s second-largest cryptocurrency exchange, and the financial analysis website, respectively, the yellow metal could reach as high as US$4,000 per ounce by the end of the year.

The report, titled ‘The Crypto Ark: Unlocking Value in a Volatile World’, provides an in-depth analysis of the macroeconomic trends and technical factors that are supporting gold’s stellar rally in 2025. It also explores the implications for other asset classes, such as equities, bonds, and currencies.

"Gold has recently hit a new all-time high of around US$3,500 per ounce. The rally marks a 26% increase year-to-date and a 41% gain over the past 12 months. To put this in perspective, equities have struggled in comparison, with the S&P 500 down 11% over the same period. This disparity highlights gold’s renewed strength and resilience as a safe-haven asset," the report said.

According to the report, gold’s outperformance is partly due to a broader macroeconomic trend: investors are fleeing volatility in traditional markets and seeking refuge in less correlated assets, such as precious metals.

"A weakening US dollar, persistent inflation, and negative equity returns have made gold increasingly attractive. As fiat currencies lose purchasing power, gold’s status as a hedge against currency devaluation has been reaffirmed across global markets, particularly in emerging economies where currency weakness is more pronounced, " the report explained.

Moreover, trade policies implemented by U.S. President Donald Trump have rekindled fears of a global tariff war, leading to capital flows towards gold as a politically neutral store of value.

"Tariffs on key commodities, and the possibility of levies on gold itself, are pushing exporters and importers to divest from vulnerable currencies, such as the CAD, JPY, EUR, CNY, and MXN, in favor of gold reserves. This move is driven by a survival instinct to maintain profitability and liquidity in an economically hostile environment, " the report said.

It added that traditional safe-haven instruments, like US Treasuries, are also seeing reduced demand from exporting nations affected by US tariffs.

"As Treasury yields lose their appeal and risk aversion rises, gold is emerging as the only truly stable alternative for large-scale capital flows. This shift is unfolding as exporting nations, fearing the economic repercussions of tariffs and trade disputes, seek to preserve value in a less risky form, " the report explained.

From a technical perspective, the report said that bullish signals remain in place, with the MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) remaining positive and the short-term (12-day) moving average staying above the longer-term (26-day) average - a classic sign of continued upward momentum.

"The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 60, indicating healthy momentum without entering overbought territory, which could stall the rally. But overall, the technical indicators suggest that the uptrend remains intact and could continue in the short term, " the report stated.

Given the supportive macroeconomic backdrop, persistent geopolitical risks, and favorable technical setup, analysts at Bybit and FXStreet forecast the rally will continue short-term, with gold appearing poised to test its next resistance level at US$3,500.

"If the bulls manage to push through this hurdle, the final target for the year could be set at around US$4,000 per ounce, which is about a 20% upside from the current levels if current momentum holds, " the analysts said.

They also noted that silver presents an interesting opportunity for diversification, especially considering its historical movement in tandem with gold.

"However, despite this close correlation, silver remains significantly undervalued compared to its 2011 all-time high of around US$50 per ounce. In contrast, gold has already reached triple digits, having crossed the US$3,500 mark recently. This disparity suggests that silver has further potential for appreciation as industrial demand and capital flows converge to drive up the metal’s price, " the analysts explained.

According to the report, silver is benefiting not only from defensive capital flows, which are pushing up prices of less correlated assets like precious metals, but also from cyclical economic recovery, which is boosting demand for industrial metals.

"This confluence of factors is setting up silver for strong gains, offering investors an additional layer of resilience in a turbulent economic climate, " the analysts concluded.