Triple-A No More—Moody’s Strips U.S. of Top Rating Amid Exploding Debt and Market Mayhem

On Friday, credit rating agency Moody's downgraded the United States' long-term credit rating from Aaa to Aa1, pointing to a decade of mounting debt and escalating interest payment pressures.

Credit rating agency Moody’s has downgraded the United States’ long-term credit rating from Aaa to Aa1, highlighting a decade of rising debt and escalating interest payment burdens amid turbulent market conditions and disjointed activity across bonds.

The agency, a Nationally Recognized Statistical Rating Organization (NRSRO) authorized under U.S. securities law to evaluate government credit, said the U.S. continues to operate with sizable deficits without engaging in substantial fiscal tightening—either through spending restraint or increased taxation—leading to a snowballing debt load and diminishing capacity to manage interest obligations.

“The downgrade of the U.S. government's rating is driven by the administration's escalating budgetary strains, which are unfolding amid a turbulent macroeconomic landscape and escalating geopolitical tensions,” said Moody’s Chief Credit Officer, John Porter.

Federal debt is projected to rise noticeably, advancing from 98% of GDP in 2024 to 134% by 2035. Meanwhile, federal deficit is projected to widen to nearly 9% of GDP over that period, the agency said.

To worsen matters, interest on the debt could consume 30% of federal revenue by 2035, a sharp increase from 18% in 2024 and just 9% in 2021, Moody’s said.

The U.S. is now grappling with recession concerns, turbulent market behavior, and disorder in fixed-income markets—largely driven by a mix of aggressive tariff regimes and elevated borrowing costs. In early April, President Trump introduced sweeping duties on all trading partners, setting a baseline levy with steeper penalties for nations having significant trade surpluses against the U.S.

These broad trade actions, now encompassing trillions in imports, have roiled financial markets, dampened confidence in the S&P 500, sparked distress signals in bond pricing, and contributed to a softer U.S. dollar.

Moody’s noted the enduring pillars of the U.S. economy—its vast scale, technological dynamism, and the unrivaled status of the U.S. dollar as the world’s primary reserve currency. However, these foundational attributes no longer fully counterbalance the nation’s worsening fiscal trajectory.

Despite retaining a high credit rating, the downgrade may incrementally elevate borrowing costs and dampen investor enthusiasm for U.S. sovereign debt.

Moody’s said America’s fiscal standing is deteriorating not only in absolute terms but also in comparison to its affluent peers. At its core, Moody’s sees a government deeply tethered to debt financing, showing little inclination to change direction—casting a deepening shadow on the long-term viability of U.S. public finances.