Trade War and U.S. Debt Are the Economy's Top Threats, Say Federal Reserve Survey

A Federal Reserve survey naming the trade war and U.S. debt as the economy's top threats has prompted veteran investor Clem Chambers to warn of an overlooked supply-chain squeeze that could jolt markets.

A Federal Reserve survey naming the trade war and U.S. debt as the economy’s top threats has prompted veteran investor Clem Chambers to warn of an overlooked supply-chain squeeze that could jolt markets.

In an interview with Kitco News Anchor Jeremy Szafron, the entrepreneur and chief executive of Online Blockchain discussed the potential for a food packaging shortfall to spur grocery inflation and empty shelves faster than investors expect.

About 30 percent of U.S. food packaging is made in China, and if Trump’s tariffs hit, it could vanish, leaving a sudden shortfall in plastic film and meat trays, Chambers said. This, in turn, would tack “four, five, or six or seven percent” onto grocery inflation.

“You know, the little blue packets that you put your chicken wings on. If they don’t have them, you can’t have your chicken wings in the supermarket, can you?” he asked, arguing that the real danger is what “nobody’s talking about.”

The entrepreneur also cautioned that monetary policy remains the wild card.

“The Fed is the fairy godmother of America … if things go pear-shaped, they will pull the lever of print,” Chambers said, predicting any renewed quantitative easing (QE) could reignite 8% to 9% inflation.

Safe-haven demand, he argued, is already evident in bullion buying by governments from Poland to China.

“Gold is for war. Bitcoin is for flight,” he said, adding that geopolitical tension could drive the yellow metal toward $5,000 an ounce, with a potential golden pathway to $10,000 if conflicts deepen.

Bitcoin’s current perch near $95,000 reflects capital looking for portability, Chambers contended. Yet he warned the leading crypto token could retreat to $60,000 if the world calms or the Fed declines to add liquidity, noting that prior cycles showed “double tops” when stress subsided.

Given the uncertainty, the Forbes columnist said he is holding about 92% of his portfolio in cash and precious metals while trimming ethereum (ETH) exposure, arguing that Wall Street’s growing influence is likely to dampen outsized crypto gains.

Chambers acknowledged that blockchain technology itself remains promising once U.S. regulators shift from enforcement to clear rules, but he is content to “sit there and watch the world go by” until the supply-chain picture and policy direction become clearer.

He hopes his dire scenarios will prove wrong, but maintains that ignoring the quiet pipeline risk could trigger the avalanche he fears.