The stock is hovering far below its peak. But with momentum flickering and bold bets being placed, could the path ahead really lead COIN stock to that lofty $400 mark?

About Coinbase Stock

Coinbase (COIN) stock has slipped more than 40% from its 52-week high of $349.75 last December, hit as Bitcoin rallied and then President-elect Donald Trump made pro-crypto signals.

But it is still up 2.7% over the past year, highlighting its resilience despite market jitters, regulatory headwinds, and the sting of being left out of the S&P 500 Index (SPX) that cooled investor enthusiasm. Over the past month, shares jumped a further 18% on renewed trading activity, a spike in Bitcoin prices, and optimism around its Deribit acquisition.

Coinbase Missed Q1 Top- and Bottom-Line Projections

The world’s second-largest cryptocurrency exchange pulled in $2.03 billion in revenue during the first quarter, up 24% year over year and fueled by stronger transaction activity and rising demand for services like Coinbase One. Both its revenue and EPS of $0.24 missed estimates, while adjusted net income fell 23.3% annually to $1.94 per share.

Transaction revenue alone surged 18.2% to $1.3 billion, lifted by both consumer and institutional activity. Consumer trading volume jumped 39% from the year prior to $78 billion, though it dipped 17% from Q4. Institutional trading volume rose 23% annually to $315 billion but fell 8.7% sequentially.

Meanwhile, subscription and services revenue soared 36.3% to $698.1 million, largely thanks to strong stablecoin growth and the Coinbase One platform. April alone saw $240 million in transaction revenue, an encouraging start to Q2.

Management highlighted Coinbase’s $2.9 billion acquisition of Deribit, a global leader in crypto options, as a pivotal move to expand its derivatives presence and enhance cross-selling opportunities with institutional clients. CEO Brian Armstrong underscored the goal of unifying spot, futures, and options trading, while noting its rising USD Coin (USDCUSD) balances as a stable revenue stream. The deal is expected to be accretive to adjusted EBITDA and boost profitability by enabling seamless institutional trading across products.

Looking ahead, Coinbase flagged macro uncertainty and crypto price volatility as near-term headwinds. CFO Alesia Haas warned of early Q2 pressure on blockchain rewards and subscription revenue. Still, leadership remains bullish, citing a strong roadmap, global expansion, and regulatory clarity as tailwinds for long-term growth.

Coinbase expects subscription and services revenue to land between $600 million and $680 million in Q2.

According to the projections of analysts tracking Coinbase, the company’s EPS is expected to be around $6.75 in 2025, showing a decrease of 11.2% year-over-year. However, the following year, the company’s EPS is projected to experience a significant increase of 10.5% annually, reaching $7.46 in 2026.

What Do Analysts Expect for Coinbase Stock?

After Coinbase reported Q1 earnings that missed expectations and disclosed its Deribit acquisition, it was met with a mixed verdict from Wall Street analysts.

While some analysts, like Benjamin Buddish from Barclays, were optimistic and raised the target price to $202, maintaining an “Equal Weight” rating on the stock, others, such as JPMorgan, had a more cautious outlook. JPMorgan trimmed its target to $215 and kept a “Neutral” rating on COIN.

On the other hand, Keefe, Bruyette & Woods was bullish enough to raise its target to $205, and it also maintained a “Market Perform” rating on COIN. Both JPMorgan and KBW lowered Coinbase’s Q2 and full-year revenue projections due to lower-than-expected activity in the last quarter and signs of slowing momentum. They also slashed the company’s institutional revenue and fee rate projections for Q2.

However, among the covered analysts, Joseph Vafi from Canaccord remained the most bullish, maintaining a “Buy” rating and a $400 price target, which is the highest on Wall Street, suggesting growth potential of nearly 100%. The analyst highlighted Coinbase’s white-label “infrastructure-as-a-service” model as a future growth engine.

Despite highlighting near-term pressures, many analysts agreed that Coinbase is still the gold standard in the crypto market. Overall, the stock had a “Moderate Buy” consensus rating, according to the analysis of 26 covered analysts on TipRanks. Among those analysts, nine recommended a Strong Buy, one suggested a Moderate Buy, and 14 advised Hold, while the remaining two had a Sell rating.

The mean price target was $257.56, which indicates an upside potential of