The Packers Should Abandon Their Strategy of Receiving the Opening Kickoff

It made sense at the time. Packers deferring Kickoffs came about as they were walking into the literal Lions' den on Thanksgiving Day. Matt LaFleur decided to go against type and conventional wisdom. The Packers won the coin toss and chose to receive instead of deferring the kickoff option to the second half.

The Green Bay Packers have made a habit of receiving the opening kickoff this season, a strategy that paid off handsomely in 2023 but appears to be less effective in 2024.

The Packers won the coin toss and chose to receive in four of the five games they won the toss this season. They deferred once, in their Week 2 victory over the Minnesota Vikings. Their opponents elected to defer in the five games they won the coin toss.

Combined, the Packers have had the ball first in nine of their ten games. In those nine games, the Packers have scored 20 points on their opening drives. Their opponents have similarly scored 20 points in their nine drives to open the 2nd half.

Their opponents have had four “double-up” opportunities. They scored in their final possession of the first half in all four, totaling 16 points. Philadelphia and Chicago have successfully pulled off the double-up by scoring on their opening possession of the 2nd half, as well.

The Packers are 5-4 in those nine games. Having the ball first certainly hasn’t been a disadvantage for the Packers. They have a net 4-point disadvantage in the opening and closing drives of the 20 halves of football they’ve played so far. Over a ten-game sample, that’s pretty meaningless.

However, if you’re going against conventional wisdom in your decision-making process, you should see some advantage from it. Since they're not getting any advantage from receiving the opening kickoff, it’s probably time for Matt LaFleur to abandon the experiment and go back to deferring when winning the coin flip.