10 misguided crypto theories and beliefs that turned out to be wrong

The crypto industry has seen its fair share of forecasts and theories that have crashed harder than a poorly coded smart contract. From the never-ending quest to dox Satoshi Nakamoto to the laughably wrong idea that Gary Gensler would be good for crypto, here are some crypto theories and beliefs that turned out to be misguided at best.

10 crypto theories that turned out to be wrong

The crypto industry has seen its fair share of forecasts and theories that have crashed harder than a poorly coded smart contract.

From the never-ending quest to dox Satoshi Nakamoto to the laughably wrong idea that Gary Gensler would be good for crypto, here are some crypto theories and beliefs that turned out to be misguided at best.

1. Peter Todd is Satoshi

Every few months, someone comes forward claiming to have definitive proof of Nakamoto’s identity — or worse, claiming to be the creator of Bitcoin themselves. Yet, time and again, these “discoveries” unravel under scrutiny, revealing more about the allure of the mystery than any solid evidence.

We’ve seen faked documents, misinterpreted cryptographic signatures, and linguistic analyses attempting to trace Satoshi’s origins — all leading to red herrings and inevitable public retractions. Some think the NSA is Satoshi and invented Bitcoin as a honey trap for criminals, while others tip Elon Musk or Snowcrash author Neal Stephenson.

In other words, pretty much anyone who was older than 15 in 2008 and had an internet connection has been suggested as a possible Satoshi.

The latest round of rumors came thanks to this week’s HBO documentary, which named Bitcoin developer Peter Todd as the creator of Bitcoin. The doco made a lot of hay from some interesting circumstantial evidence but few people think it’s cleared up the mystery of who Satoshi is.

Conclusively proving Todd isn’t Satoshi isn’t easy, but the evidence for believing he is Satoshi is not particularly compelling.

In the lead-up to HBO’s reveal, Polymarket bettors speculated on who HBO might name, with guesses ranging from the late cryptographer Len Sassaman to computer scientist Nick Szabo. 

In the end, HBO named Todd, who denied the claim … but admitted to being Craig Wright.

2. Gary Gensler’s crypto knowledge means he’s good for Bitcoin

Gary Gensler, once heralded as a beacon of hope by the crypto community, assumed his role as chairman of the United States Securities and Exchange Commission on April 17, 2021. 

Gensler’s appointment was initially met with enthusiasm, as industry participants expressed relief to have an MIT blockchain professor at the helm who seemed to genuinely understand cryptocurrency. How naive we were.

Turns out, Professor Gensler was less about blockchain buddy-ness and more about rulebook thumping.

If Donald Trump gets elected, he’s promised to remove Gensler before the SEC chairman’s term expires in 2026. If that happens his crypto legacy will have been marked by a contentious regulation-by-enforcement approach that targeted major industry players and has often been blamed for driving key talent overseas.

Despite his best efforts, Gensler’s tenure also saw the approval of the first spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds in the US, showing no one man can hold back the tide of progress.

3. CryptoKitties and NFTs are the future: The metaverse is coming

Launched in November 2017, CryptoKitties quickly became a cultural phenomenon and introduced the concept of non-fungible tokens (NFT) to the broader blockchain community.

The CryptoKitties frenzy saw investors chasing these digital felines like real-life treasure, but the excitement quickly faded.

The most expensive CryptoKitty was purchased for 600 ETH in September 2019, at the time valued at around $172,000. This was a defining moment that showcased NFTs can be more than just JPEGs for nerds.

Today, in 2024, 600 ETH is roughly valued at $1.5 million, while the average CryptoKitty is valued at $21.

Bored Ape Yacht Club followed and was once a status symbol talked up by the world’s top stars like rap legend Eminem and NBA star Stephen Curry. As of Oct. 9, the floor price of Bored Apes was down to 10.83 ETH, from a peak of 153 ETH.

For a while there in 2021, digital ownership via NFTs was said to usher in the age of the metaverse — a theory that turned into a full-blown hype when Facebook changed its name to Meta and burned billions of dollars researching the concept.

The slow adoption of VR hardware and the end of the NFT bubble, however, has seen interest in the metaverse fade… although some true believers still think it will come about in a longer timeframe.

4. Sam Bankman-Fried is a hero who will take crypto mainstream

Sam Bankman-Fried was once the crypto community’s white knight, having been handed the keys to rescue SushiSwap and swooping in to bail out companies during the Terra-Luna and Three Arrows Capital fallout. 

His platform, FTX, was hailed as innovative and leading the way