Ethereum (ETH) Reclaims Key Level That Preceded 100%+ Rallies and Past Altseasons

Ethereum (ETH) has reclaimed a key technical level that has historically preceded sharp price gains and marked the start of an “altseason”

The price of Ethereum (ETH) has reclaimed a key technical level that could be setting the stage for a substantial price increase in the coming months.

As of Monday, the mid-line of the Gaussian Channel on the 2-week chart—a technical indicator used to visualize long-term price trends—remained the immediate resistance for ETH.

The mid-line of the channel has acted as a point of divergence for significant rallies in previous market cycles.

In 2020, ETH surged from $400 to over $4,800 in 2021 after closing above the Gaussian mid-line in July 2020. A similar move in late 2023 saw ETH climb from below $1,500 to nearly $4,000 within a year after November 2023.

In both instances, ETH quickly advanced toward and broke above the channel’s upper band as momentum built.

The next logical resistance level is the upper band of the Gaussian Channel, which is currently at around $3,200. A breakout above this level could open the path toward the previous cycle high of $4,100 by July.

The potential for a large ETH price rally may also influence the broader altcoin market to rise alongside, according to market analyst Moustache.

According to the analyst, the combined market cap of the altcoin market, excluding Ethereum, surged by over 1,400% over a year after Ether’s close above the channel’s midline in July 2020.

Similarly, the altcoin market cap gained by more than 200% a year after ETH’s midline breakout in November 2023.

The prospect of a 2025 altseason is further amplified by a repeating post-Bitcoin-halving pattern.

In both 2017 and 2021, Bitcoin dominance dropped sharply around 400 days after the halving, triggering altcoin rallies. With the April 2024 halving nearing the same period, a similar decline could occur within the next 100 days.

Analyst Wimar X expects the altcoin market cap to surge toward $15 trillion if the trend repeats.

However, while ETH is showing technical strength, its support remains shallow unless it can move further away from its cost basis.

According to onchain data from Glassnode, the largest portion of ETH’s market cap—around $123 billion—is held by investors who bought between $2,300 and $2,500.

If ETH’s price drops even slightly below this range, a large number of holders would flip into a loss. That could increase the risk of panic selling, adding pressure to the market.