U.S. duties on most Chinese goods will drop from 145% to 30%, while China will reduce levies on U.S. products from 125% to 10%

This diplomatic warming caused a sharp rise in risk appetite, U.S. stocks opened with a 3% gap up as markets began to consider the possibility of a recovery in cross-border capital flows.

U.S. duties on most Chinese goods will drop from 145% to 30%, while China will reduce levies on U.S. products from 125% to 10%. This diplomatic warming caused a sharp rise in risk appetite, U.S. stocks opened with a 3% gap up as markets began to consider the possibility of a recovery in cross-border capital flows.

This move also had implications for crypto markets, notably with implications for Bitcoin and Ethereum price action, according to QCP Capital.

Gold, traditionally a protective asset in times of uncertainty and protectionism, reacted by falling nearly 3%, although it later partially recovered. The return to a more traditional macro regime (stronger U.S. dollar, rising Treasury yields, weaker gold) stimulated a new wave of selling in volatility-related instruments across asset classes. The VIX index fell to 18 points, and Bitcoin volatility on the near end of the curve declined by more than 5 points.

Bitcoin and Ethereum: Multidirectional movements

Both Bitcoin and Ethereum initially declined following the tariff announcement, with Bitcoin falling to the $103,000 level and Ethereum slipping below $2,600. However, they have since stabilized around these marks.

Under the surface, there are signs of capital rotation. Bitcoin's dominance has fallen below 63%, while altcoins, especially Ethereum, are beginning to outperform the first cryptocurrency.

Bitcoin remains in a contradictory position between its role as ‘digital gold’ and its function as a high-risk proxy asset. This contradiction continues to make it difficult to establish a clear direction of movement. As the macroeconomic narrative shifts from protectionism to renewed trade optimism, Bitcoin may remain in a sideways trend.

Nevertheless, a broader pivot could influence derivatives flows. Longer investment horizons typically support demand for long-dated options, reduce the need for near-term put hedging, and increase the steepness of the volatility curve.

Ethereum forms a clearer picture

In contrast, Ethereum is presenting more understandable dynamics. Funding remains neutral, and options are skewed toward puts relative to calls, indicating that the breakout is not driven by speculative activity. The net move above $2,600 coincides with the rollout of the Pectra upgrade.

QCP Capital analysts note a resurgence in flows into longer-dated options, which may be an early sign that Ethereum is positioning itself as the next major target for capital allocation in the market.

The trading strategies are based on the current market situation. Let’s consider the main directions in more detail.

Trading strategies for the current market

Coincodex suggests considering strategies that take into account the new macroeconomic regime. One of the key ideas is the use of option structures that can capitalize on the changing shape of the Bitcoin volatility curve.

A calendar spread strategy for Bitcoin involves selling short-term options and buying long-term options at the same time. This allows the trader to benefit from lower near-term volatility while maintaining exposure to potential long-term movements. This approach can be particularly effective now that Bitcoin’s short-term volatility has been significantly reduced.

For Ethereum, analysts suggest considering strategies that focus on continued growth. One option is to buy call options with target levels above its current price of $2,600, which could bring significant profits in case of further upside. Given that option skew currently favors puts, the value of such calls may be relatively low (and therefore attractive to buyers).

A bullish call spread strategy for Ethereum can be implemented by simultaneously buying call options with a lower strike and selling call options with a higher strike. This limits both potential gains and potential losses, but reduces the overall cost of the position.

Macroeconomic changes described in the QCP Capital report are creating a new reality for cryptocurrency markets. The reduction of tariffs between the U.S. and China stimulates global financial flows and changes investors’ attitudes toward risk. In this environment, Bitcoin may temporarily lose some of its appeal as a defensive asset, but it will retain its fundamental value. Ethereum, with technological upgrades and growing institutional interest, is forming its own growth trajectory, as evidenced by increasing volumes of long-term options.