Will China Change Its Stance on Bitcoin (BTC) Mining?

This article reviews the latest developments regarding US dominance in the Bitcoin mining industry and how political pressure, including tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump, may affect China's policies.

China has long been known for its anti-cryptocurrency stance, shutting down bitcoin (BTC) mining activity and other crypto-related businesses in the country. However, with the changing global dynamics, especially the new dominance achieved by the United States in terms of bitcoin mining, a question arises whether China will change its policy.

This article explores the latest developments concerning U.S. dominance in the bitcoin mining industry and how political pressure, including tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump, might affect China’s policies.

U.S. Dominance in Bitcoin Mining

According to the Cambridge Center for Alternative Finance (CCAF), the United States now controls 75.4% of the total global bitcoin hashrate. This marks a major shift in the bitcoin mining industry that was previously dominated by China. In 2017, China was a major leader in bitcoin mining, leveraging low electricity costs and extensive mining infrastructure to control more than 75% of the world’s total hashrate.

However, in 2019, China began taking decisive steps by banning cryptocurrency mining activities. Some provinces in China even started shutting down their mining operations. This ban was further strengthened in 2021 when the Chinese government declared that all crypto-related transactions were illegal, including banning foreign crypto exchanges from serving Chinese citizens.

Despite Ban, Mining Activities Continue in China

Despite the official ban, bitcoin mining activity in China has not completely stopped. An analysis by Daniel Batten, a researcher focusing on the environmental impact of bitcoin, shows that China still controls about 15% of the total global hashrate. This indicates that despite the ban, the existing infrastructure in China can still support mining activities, both directly and through methods that are not officially registered.

According to the co-founder of Coin Bureau, Samuel "Sam" Mc Ingle (known as "Coin Bureau" online), this shift in hashrate to the United States is significant. He explained that if China were to rejoin the global hashrate network, they could quickly regain a substantial portion of the total hashrate due to their existing technological capabilities and large-scale operations.

China and Its Digital Currency Strategy

Apart from focusing on bitcoin mining, China has also shown interest in developing digital currencies, such as the digital yuan (e-CNY). This aligns with China’s efforts to reduce its dependence on the U.S. dollar and strengthen the yuan’s position in the global market. The development of the digital yuan is seen as a step to support the de-dollarization of the Chinese economy, aiming to decrease the dominance of the U.S. dollar in international trade.

According to Temujin Louie, CEO of Wanchain, while China remains obstructive to the use of domestic cryptocurrencies, they remain active in developing other digital assets, such as CBDC (Central Bank Digital Currency) research and the launch of the digital yuan. He explained that China’s policies are not solely driven by pressure from the U.S. but also by global market trends and China’s own domestic strategies.

Trade Tension Risks and U.S. Influence

Trade tensions between the U.S. and China, triggered by trade tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump, add a layer of uncertainty in terms of the cost efficiency of bitcoin mining operations in the U.S. According to Coin Bureau, China could use this moment to reconsider their bitcoin mining policies, although they are unlikely to make any major changes immediately.

Instead, China is likely to adopt a more cautious and measured approach in response to these changes. However, considering the significant trade friction and political pressure from the U.S., China might be motivated to reevaluate their stance on bitcoin mining and other cryptocurrencies.

Will China Change Its Stance on Crypto?

Although China’s policy toward cryptocurrencies looks contradictory, some analysis suggests that there is a possibility of a change in policy direction, especially in relation to the de-dollarization strategy. Several countries, including China and Russia, have started using bitcoin (BTC) in energy trade to circumvent the dominance of the U.S. dollar. This is evidence that the use of cryptocurrencies as an alternative to international transactions is gaining attention at the global level.

In this case, China may choose to change their policy quietly, adjusting their policy towards cryptocurrencies in order to support efforts to internationalize the digital yuan or e-CNY. This process, while perhaps not directly related to U.S. dominance in mining, suggests that China retains a broader strategy in dealing with global challenges.