BTCUSD Daily Outlook

BTCUSD holds above $60000 in rate cut hopes. It hit a high of $65 and is currently trading at around $61100.

BTCUSD price outlook: TokenPost analysis

BTCUSD is trading higher on hopes of a 50 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September.

The pair hit a high of $65 and is currently trading at around $61100.

According to the CME Fed watch tool, the probability of a 50 bpbs rate cut in Sep increased to 38.50% from 24% a week ago.

However, the probability of a 25 bpbs rate cut also increased to 61.50% from 76% a week ago.

BTC ETF saw inflows of $252M on Aug 23rd, 2024.

All 5 major US Bitcoin ETFs saw strong inflows of over $20M yesterday.

The total inflows into the 5 ETFs now stand at $1.1B for the month of August.

US markets closed mixed on Monday. The Dow closed lower, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite both closed higher.

The S&P 500 index (positive correlation with BTC) closed almost flat and is still struggling to clear the 20000 price point. Any close above will open up the index for a rally to 19000.

The technology-heavy Nasdaq index (negative correlation with BTC) closed lower and is now eyeing a support at 13000. Failure to hold that support will drag the index to 12500.

On the technical front, BTCUSD trades above the short-term moving average of 21 EMA and 55 EMA and the long-term moving average (200 EMA) in the 4-hour chart.

The pair is also trading above the Bollinger Bands moving average, indicating a bullish momentum.

On the downside, minor support is seen at $57000. Any break below will open up the pair for a slide to the next support at $54500-$53000, followed by $50000 and $46000 levels.

On the upside, primary supply zone is seen at $63000. Any break above will confirm a bullish continuation. A jump to $65000, followed by $67000 and $70000 levels is possible.

Secondary barrier is seen at $70000. A close above that barrier targets $750000 and $80000 levels.

It will be interesting to see if BTCUSD can continue to trade higher in the coming sessions and eventually clear the $63000 resistance zone.

If that happens, the pair could be set for a rally to $65000, followed by $67000 and $70000 levels.

However, if BTCUSD fails to hold above the $60000 level, it could be vulnerable to a slide to $57000, followed by $54500-$53000, $50000 and $46000 levels.

From a trading perspective, it might be a good idea to buy on dips around $57000 with a stop loss around $55000 for targets of $63000 and $67000.