Bitcoin Has Been Quietly Climbing Over the Past Week

Despite the slow pace of these gains, data suggests that Bitcoin holders are showing a growing level of confidence in the cryptocurrency's future.

Bitcoin (BTC) has been slowly but surely climbing over the past week, moving steadily from the $87K zone to the $94K–$95K range. This gradual ascent reflects a positive sentiment among investors, who are showing a growing level of confidence in the cryptocurrency’s future.

While the pace of these gains might seem slow, data suggests that Bitcoin holders are becoming increasingly optimistic, a fact that could have implications for the cryptocurrency’s long-term price trajectory.

A shift has been observed in Bitcoin’s exchange flow metrics, which are now showing signs of heavy accumulation, contrasting with the usual scenario where these metrics foreshadow profit-taking.

Moreover, the U.S. state of Arizona’s recent Senate bill approval, which could pave the way for a Bitcoin strategic reserve, has further fueled this growing optimism.

Bitcoin’s Confidence Indicator: The Supply in Profit

As Bitcoin continues to climb, the supply in profit metric has been steadily rising, a key sign that Bitcoin holders are feeling more confident about the currency’s long-term trajectory.

Analyst Darkfost highlighted this in a recent CryptoQuant post, noting that when more than 90% of Bitcoin’s supply is in profit, historical patterns suggest a euphoric phase.

While such phases are usually followed by pullbacks, these sell-offs are unlikely in the immediate future.

This increase in Bitcoin’s supply in profit, along with its relatively low selling pressure from miners, signals that the current rally could still have some legs to run.

However, a word of caution is necessary as the market could experience pullbacks when the price becomes overheated. Yet, for now, Bitcoin’s upward momentum seems to be driven by steady demand and growing confidence.

Exchange Netflows: A Bullish Signal

Another key metric contributing to the optimism around Bitcoin’s price is the exchange netflows data. The 30-day moving average has been trending lower for the past week, staying in negative territory throughout April.

This suggests that more Bitcoin is being moved out of exchanges than into them, signaling accumulation rather than profit-taking.

The 7-day moving average of exchange flows saw a significant drop in April, further highlighting that Bitcoin holders are not rushing to sell. If this trend continues, it could pave the way for further price increases.

In a market lacking confidence, an increase in BTC moving onto exchanges would typically signal that holders are preparing to sell, but this is not the case here.

MVRV Ratio: A Growing Bullish Signal

Bitcoin’s MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) ratio, which measures the difference between the price of Bitcoin and the average price at which it was last moved, has also been an important indicator.

The 30-day MVRV ratio is at its highest since late 2024, suggesting that Bitcoin is approaching levels where holders might start taking profits.

However, this fear of selling pressure from profit-taking is balanced by the longer-term MVRV ratios, which remain low. Specifically, the 180-day and 365-day MVRV values are far from the levels seen in the peak months of November and December 2024, indicating that long-term holders have not yet reached substantial profit levels. This reinforces the idea that Bitcoin’s rally has room to grow.

Where Are Bitcoin’s Price Targets?

The market’s growing confidence is reflected in Bitcoin’s price trajectory. With the $94K–$95K zone acting as a key resistance point, the next significant hurdles appear to be at $101K and $106K. According to data from the liquidation heatmap, these levels could be Bitcoin’s next major targets if the bullish momentum continues.

The market’s cautious optimism is supported by a combination of bullish metrics and a solid technical outlook. Bitcoin’s slow but steady upward movement suggests that it is gearing up for more gains, with the $95K wall likely to be breached if the current trend continues.

What’s Next for Bitcoin?

As Bitcoin holders maintain their conviction, the likelihood of a pullback remains, but it does not seem imminent. The combination of low selling pressure, increasing supply in profit, and net outflows from exchanges signals a strong accumulation phase.

Bitcoin has already broken several key barriers, and if it can clear the $95K resistance, it could see its next surge towards the $100K mark and beyond.

In conclusion, the data suggests that Bitcoin’s current rally has strong momentum and could continue to rise throughout 2025. Despite the threat of a pullback, key metrics are signaling that Bitcoin holders are confident, and the market may be on the verge of breaking through key resistance levels, potentially paving the way for even higher gains in the coming months.