Rising Risk of Recession in 2025

Jakarta, pintunews – Rumors of a potential recession in the United States by 2025 have been circulating, closely related to the prolonged trade war between the U.S. and China. According to experts, unless there are significant changes in the near future, the U.S. may be heading towards a major recession by 2025.

The U.S. economy has remained stable since President Trump took office for the second time, but it is now facing serious threats. As Torsten Slok, an economist at Apollo Global Management, recently pointed out, the country could potentially enter a recessionary phase in 2025, mainly due to the trade war with China.

This trade war not only increases uncertainty in the market but also affects investment decisions in various sectors. Such uncertainty, if it persists, could dampen economic growth and increase the risk of recession.

Impact on Business and Employment

Besides the 56% likelihood of recession, the impact of this trade war is already being felt in the real world. Major retailers, such as Walmart and Target, are preparing for potential supply shortages due to the trade war, which could disrupt daily operations and increase the price of goods for consumers.

This price increase could reduce consumer purchasing power and further slow economic growth. If this situation persists, the impact could be more widespread and profound.

It’s not just large companies that are affected; small businesses, particularly in the manufacturing sector, are also feeling the heat. The increased tariffs have driven up production costs, and many of these small businesses are on the brink of bankruptcy.

If these conditions do not change, more small businesses may be forced to close, resulting in increased unemployment and a reduced quality of life for many. Small businesses are the backbone of the economy, and their demise can have far-reaching effects.

Can Society Avoid Recession?

It remains to be seen whether the U.S. will actually enter a recession phase in 2025. However, one thing that is clear is that the trade war with China is having a major impact. If tariffs remain in place, society may see more job losses and higher costs.

Appropriate policy measures and effective negotiations may be able to mitigate these negative impacts. The government needs to work together with all parties to find solutions that can avoid recession and restore economic stability.

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