Bitcoin Holds Below $75K Before Expected U.S. Rate Cut

This article originally appeared in First Mover, CoinDesk's daily newsletter, putting the latest moves in crypto markets in context.

Bitcoin (BTC) traded around $75,000 during the European morning Thursday, about 2% lower than the all-time high of nearly $76,500 set Wednesday. Following Donald Trump's election victory, attention will turn to the next round of interest-rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with analysts forecasting a 25 basis-point reduction later Thursday.

While lower borrowing costs are generally seen as a bullish signal for risk assets such as crypto, this one might prove to be a non-event. The CME's FedWatch tool showed traders were assigning a nearly 100% chance of the Fed trimming the benchmark rate to 4.5%-4.7%, so the reduction is already priced in.

BTC's price is still up over 16% in the past seven days and nearly 60% year-to-date. But the gains have slowed recently, and the seven-day moving average has flattened out after nearly two months of steep上昇.

The seven-day average has provided support and resistance levels in the past, and it will be interesting to see if it continues to do so. A sustained move below the seven-day average could indicate a short-term bearish trend, while a breakout above the 30-day average could signal a bullish move.

The 30-day average has also flattened out in recent weeks, but it still shows a slight uptrend. A sustained move below the 30-day average could indicate a longer-term bearish trend, while a breakout above the 90-day average could signal a bullish move.

The 90-day average has been trending up since early 2023, and it recently crossed above the 365-day average, which is a bullish technical signal. A sustained move below the 90-day average could indicate a bearish trend, while a breakout above the 365-day average could signal a bullish trend.

Among other major cryptocurrencies, ether (ETH) was trading above $2,800, adding 7% in the past 24 hours, while XRP, BNB and ADA were up 2%-4%.

The CoinDesk 20 Index, which measures the price performance of the top 20 cryptocurrencies excluding stablecoins, was up 2.7% over 24 hours. Among the seven-day price changes, TRX led the gainers with a 40% seven-day gain, followed by a 20% gain for GMT and a 15% gain for UNI.

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