Bitcoin Eyes $100K: BTC surges on trade talk optimism; analysts say long-term cycle and ETF demand could fuel breakout past $100K.

Bitcoin spiked to $96,800 after news that the U.S. and China will resume trade talks this week, igniting a rapid $1700 rally.

Bitcoin price rose on Monday, extending gains after notching its biggest one-day rally in over seven months as upbeat trade developments and an outlook on the cryptocurrency’s long-term cycle suggest the $100,000 mark could be in sight.

Bitcoin was last up around 1.4% over the past 24 hours to $96,800 by 08:35 ET (12:35 GMT). The world’s biggest cryptocurrency spiked rapidly by $1,700 after news that the U.S. and China will resume talks this week.

The announcement helped improve investor sentiment across the crypto market, with altcoins like XRP, Cardano and Dogecoin also trading higher.

With the trade war threat cooling down, attention now turns to the upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate decision - a key macro event that could decide Bitcoin’s short-term direction.

But is Bitcoin following macro cues, or is something deeper at play?

Bitcoin Price Prediction: FOMC Meeting and Long-Term Cycles

According to crypto analyst Stockmoney Lizards, Bitcoin’s sustained price movements are driven more by historical cycles than by short-term news. Their analysis shows that:

The analyst adds that macro events - like the Fed meetings and trade deals - are quickly priced in and tend to amplify existing market emotions. But they don’t necessarily decide Bitcoin’s trajectory.

Bitcoin ETF demand and a potential supply shock from the halving phase could push the cryptocurrency past $100,000, according to Ben, another crypto analyst.

With the current correction possibly extending into Q4 and if history repeats itself, a strong bullish wave is likely to emerge later this year.

BitMEX founder Arthur Hayes offers a contrasting - yet bullish - outlook. In a recent interview, Hayes said:

“I think people are going to get bored of the narrative that the bull market is over. We’re going to get an escalation of the macro. We're going to get more rate cuts.

"If there's a trade war, it's going to get worse. People are going to get more desperate. They're going to pour more money into the stock market. And it's not going to work. It's going to get stupid, like 1999. But they're going to get more desperate to try and save the banking system.”

Bitcoin’s rally past $96,800 may just be the beginning. With global easing tensions and the FOMC meeting on the horizon, more volatility is expected. But if analysts are right, the long-term bull cycle remains in tact - and $100,000 may come sooner than expected.

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