Bitcoin (BTC/USD) miners have faced a challenging year, but analysts at Bernstein remain optimistic

In a report released on Thursday, Bernstein analysts revised their models for major Bitcoin mining companies, reflecting shifts in hash rates, AI/high-performance computing (HPC) prospects, and steady Bitcoin price forecasts.

Bitcoin BTC/USD miners have faced a challenging year, but analysts at Bernstein remain optimistic, driven by a blend of AI opportunities and Bitcoin's valuation support.

What Happened: In a report released on Thursday, Bernstein analysts revised their models for major Bitcoin mining companies, reflecting shifts in hash rates, AI/high-performance computing (HPC) prospects, and steady Bitcoin price forecasts.

The report highlights a growing institutional focus on miners' AI potential, even as their stock performance lags behind Bitcoin's year-to-date correction.

The Bernstein note points out that despite a 20-40% decline in miner stocks this year—outpacing Bitcoin's 10% drop—cheap valuations and positive EBITDA projections for 2025 justify their Outperform ratings on several firms.

The analysts point to updated hash rate estimates, power reallocations toward AI/HPC, and new contracts as key drivers behind their revised price targets for miners.

For Core Scientific CORZ, Bernstein set a price target of $17, down from an earlier estimate but still reflecting a 150.3% potential upside from its March 19 closing price of $8.68.

The firm's confidence stems from CORZ's robust 590 MW data center contracts with CoreWeave, a significant player in AI computing.

"Almost 45% of CoreWeave's contracted power capacity is contributed by CORZ, highlighting this power dependence," the report states, dismissing fears of an AI capex slowdown that triggered a 40% correction in CORZ's stock.

Riot Platforms RIOT saw its price target adjusted to $19 from $22, implying a 146.9% upside from $7.78, as the company reallocates 600 MW of its 2 GW Corsicana site power portfolio toward AI/HPC uses, pausing Bitcoin mining expansion.

Analysts noted, "RIOT with its 2 GW power portfolio is attractively positioned, however, the stock would need a catalyst in form of progress on securing an AI co-location partner for the Corsicana site."

CleanSpark CLSK and Iris Energy IREN also received Outperform ratings with price targets of $20 each, down from $30 and $26, respectively, reflecting higher industry hash rates squeezing market share and cash flows.

CLSK's target suggests a 170% upside from $8.01, while IREN's implies a 174.9% gain from $7.20.

Marathon Digital MARA, rated Market-Perform, holds a $23 target, up from its $12.53 close, offering a 153.7% upside.

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Why It Matters: Bernstein's Bitcoin price forecast remains unchanged at $200,000 by Q4, providing a valuation floor for miners holding Bitcoin on their balance sheets.

The report cites a 30% hash rate increase since April 2024's halving, pressuring production, alongside strategic pivots to AI/HPC as key model updates.

For CORZ, an additional 70 MW critical IT load contract with CoreWeave bolsters its $10 billion revenue potential over 12 years, though delivery delays push significant HPC revenue to 2026.

"We value CORZ using SOTP approach with 2 major components – 1. EV of the Bitcoin mining business; 2. EV of the AI data center business," the analysts explained, projecting AI/HPH to contribute 45% of CORZ's enterprise value by 2025.

The firm expects CORZ to double its critical IT load to 1.3 GW by 2027, leveraging existing sites and new acquisitions like a 66 MW facility in Auburn, Alabama.

The report also details CORZ's power strategy, with 1.3 GW currently across 10 U.S. sites, allocating 900 MW to AI/HPC and 400 MW to mining. Recent expansions, including 70 MW at Denton and Muskogee, underscore its execution edge.

Meanwhile, RIOT's vast power capacity awaits an AI partner to unlock its potential, while CLSK and IREN grapple with competitive hash rate pressures.

Despite miners' underwhelming performance—lagging Bitcoin's return in Q4 2024 and correcting more sharply in 2025—Bernstein sees long-term value.

The interplay of AI infrastructure demand and Bitcoin's commodity cycle positions these firms well, with CORZ and RIOT emerging as particularly compelling investment opportunities