Bitcoin (BTC) Price Forms the Same Pattern as It Did Before Its Meteoric Rise in October 2024

Bitcoin's key technical indicator is showing the same pattern as it did in October 2024, when the cryptocurrency began its meteoric rise.

Bitcoin (BTC) narrowly missed a crucial price level and technical breakout as the market eagerly anticipates key U.S. macroeconomic data.

The main cryptocurrency nearly reached the $106,000 mark following a recent surge in price, catching the attention of many traders.

As the market prepares for the release of two important indicators of U.S. inflation—Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Producer Price Index (PPI)—for April, which may influence the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decisions, Bitcoin encountered resistance at a technical zone.

As reported by The Kobeissi Letter, news of a trade deal between the U.S. and China also caused sharp fluctuations in the crypto market over the weekend.

“We have yet to receive a statement from Trump regarding the U.S.-China trade deal, which explains why markets are only up 1.3% on the back of this otherwise incredibly positive news,” noted analysts at The Kobeissi Letter.

The new week will bring the publication of two key indicators of U.S. inflation Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Producer Price Index (PPI) for April. These data may have a significant impact on the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions.

At the same time, markets are tense over U.S. trade policy. News of a trade deal with China has already caused sharp swings in the crypto market over the weekend.

"We have yet to receive a direct statement from Trump regarding the U.S.-China trade deal, which explains why markets are only up 1.3% on the back of this otherwise incredibly positive news. Uncertainty is still present everywhere."

The situation is about to get seriously volatile for BTC. Price spikes down, price spikes up. As the lower time frames get clocked, the market is going to try to break this coin out of its consolidation

According to CoinGlass, the $106,000 level represents a key resistance zone on the short-term horizon.

Map of Bitcoin position liquidations on the Binance crypto exchange. Source: Coinglass

The proportion of Bitcoin supply in profit has reached more than 98%, a phenomenon rarely seen before, according to a new study by blockchain analytics firm ChainGlass.

"When the supply of BTC in loss falls to the 0-2% range, it usually coincides with the late stages of a bull market," stated CryptoQuant analyst Kripto Mevsimi. "As shown in the chart, these moments cluster near tops, an area often characterized by overconfidence."

Bitcoin supply is in a loss range of 0-2%. Source: CryptoQuant

Long-term holders who have held Bitcoin for at least six months may see a return to six-figure prices as an opportunity to reduce their Bitcoin positions. Beginners and speculators, on the other hand, may be planning to enter the market now.

Interestingly, despite the $104,000 price, the market is showing less "greed" than when Bitcoin was 10% cheaper. This could be an additional factor supporting BTC's continued growth.

The latest data from the Cryptocurrency Fear and Greed Index shows that while "greed" characterizes the overall sentiment, the initial spike to $94,000 on April 23 yielded a higher reading.

This is contrary to the usual reaction of retail investors, who usually show increased interest when prices rise. Analysis of "Bitcoin" query volumes on Google Trends also indicates a lack of significant interest from mainstream retail investors.

"Google search queries for 'Bitcoin' are close to a five-year low. The price is above 100k. Retail investors have not even begun to really come back since 2020."

With current technical cues persisting and a relatively "cool" market sentiment, Bitcoin has a rare opportunity for sustained upside without the typical signs of overheating. The weekly MACD and the approach to the key $104,500 resistance level form an intriguing picture for the major cryptocurrency.