Bitcoin (BTC) Could Hit $1 Million in Three Years, According to Former BitMEX Boss Arthur Hayes

By By Arthur HayesUpdated May 15, 2023 at 1:13 a.m. PDT

Former BitMEX boss Arthur Hayes has set a new price target for Bitcoin (BTC) of $1 million by 2028, in a scenario where capital controls drive investors toward the apex coin and US Treasurys undergo devaluation.

Forging a bullish case in his May 15 post, Hayes outlined two major forces that he believes will push crypto prices to new highs.

Strong Tailwinds For Bitcoin

According to Hayes, tighter capital controls around the world will drive investors toward a borderless asset that isn’t subject to government confiscation or freezing.

Additionally, he anticipates US Treasurys to face "devaluation" as the Treasury’s mountain of debt continues to grow, rendering the bond market less attractive. If both trends play out, he believes Bitcoin will win over a lot of money that can’t move freely in traditional markets.

Highlighting the upcoming US presidential vote in 2028, Hayes chose this year as his time horizon for the $1 million price prediction. A pro-crypto administration could lift Bitcoin’s status even further, while a government that digs in on rules could slow things down.

Hayes notes the Trump years as an example of a friendly stance and hints that a different leader might flip the script. In Europe, authorities seem more likely to clamp down on any attempt to use Bitcoin broadly, and Hayes warns that the European Central Bank may try to shut down crypto use.

According to him, such attempts will only serve to push people further toward digital coins. In contrast, China has steered clear of banning private Bitcoin ownership, as it's an endeavor that wouldn’t succeed and would only serve to fuel illegal markets.

This isn't the first time that the ex-BitMEX exec has set a bold price target for Bitcoin. Last month, he predicted that the apex coin could hit $100,000, having previously set a low point at mid-$70,000. Other voices in finance are even more bullish than that.

Earlier this year, Fidelity set seven-figure price targets for the next ten years, starting with $127,000 by the end of 2023. Meanwhile, Strategy Inc. chair Michael Saylor, who has the largest Bitcoin stash among public firms, sees the apex coin climbing to a $10 trillion market value—working out to about $500,000 per coin—by 2030. He's also talked about a whopping $13 million price by 2045.

To reach $1 million by 2028, Bitcoin's market capitalization would need to swell to roughly $20 trillion. For perspective, that's almost twice the size of gold's market today and would require a massive influx of new buyers, ranging from large institutions to individual savers.

Any serious regulatory crackdown or a sudden rise in bond yields could pose setbacks to this scenario. However, if global money continues to seek shelter and fiat currencies keep weakening, then Hayes's optimistic scenario might unfold sooner and more rapidly than many anticipate.