Alongside the general crypto market, Ethereum (ETH) registered a significant market recovery

In an X post on May 2, Burak Kesmeci postulates that Ethereum may be entering a prolonged price uptrend based on the short-term holders' activity.

April saw a decent recovery in the general crypto market, with Ethereum (ETH) trading above the $1,800 again at the end of April. After a deep price correction that began in December 2024, the leading altcoin may finally be seeing some bullish momentum to help change the fortunes of investors. Interestingly, prominent crypto analyst Burak Kesmeci has shed some positive light on this development.

According to an X post by Burak Kesmeci on May 2, Ethereum may be entering a prolonged price uptrend based on the short-term holders’ activity. According to the seasoned analyst, the number of ETH short-term holders or traders is headed for a particular threshold that historically signifies a long-term price rally.

In the ETH market, short-term holders are defined as wallets or addresses that have recently acquired ETH, usually less than 155 days. These investors are usually sensitive to market trends and price volatility, often driven by speculation and quick profit-taking rather than long-term conviction. Typically, a rising number of short-term investors indicates renewed market interest due to new market entrants. However, Kesmeci states that ETH short-term holders, presently at 3.92 million, must cross above 4 million to suggest that the ETH market possesses sufficient bullish strength for a robust uptrend.

According to the analyst, on previous occasions when this threshold was breached by the short-term holders, the Ethereum price produced strong price rallies. As seen in the chart above, in both 2022 and 2024, periods of sustained rally in the ETH market were seen when the STH numbers rose above 4 million. According to Kesmeci, as long as the ETH short-term holders remain below this threshold, it may reflect insufficient market demand to sustain Ethereum’s current rally.

Meanwhile, the number of Ethereum long-term holders has now reached 104.24 million, indicating a strong market confidence in the asset’s price appreciation prospects. A rise in LTH generally occurs due to coin maturation as short-term holders opt against selling for over 155 days.

According to another X post by Burak Kesmeci, Ethereum is yet to break out of its 365-day simple moving average (SMA 365), which may present another barrier to the ongoing rally. SMA 365 is used to indicate price trends and often acts as a resistance in bearish markets or support in bullish markets. Despite recent market gains, ETH must move above its SMA 365 at $2,849 to confirm any intent of a strong uptrend.

At press time, Ethereum trades at $1,835, reflecting a price decline of 0.80% in the past day. Meanwhile, the asset’s trading volume is down by 15.01%.