Is it bullish if the monthly MACD crosses underwater + the weekly line stands above the 60-week moving average?

A monthly MACD cross underwater signals long-term bearishness, but if the weekly MACD stays above the 60-week MA, it may show ongoing medium-term strength despite broader weakness.

Jul 04, 2025 at 11:08 am

Understanding the MACD Indicator in Cryptocurrency Trading

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is a popular technical analysis tool used by traders to identify potential trend reversals and momentum shifts. In the context of cryptocurrency trading, where volatility is high and trends can change rapidly, understanding how to interpret the MACD becomes even more crucial. The indicator consists of three main components: the MACD line, the signal line, and the histogram. When the MACD line crosses below the signal line, it's referred to as a "bearish crossover" or "underwater" cross.

Important Note: A monthly MACD crossing underwater suggests a long-term bearish signal, but this must be analyzed alongside other timeframes and indicators for accurate interpretation.

What Does an Underwater Monthly MACD Cross Mean?

A monthly MACD cross underwater occurs when the MACD line falls below the signal line on the monthly chart. This typically signals weakening momentum and a possible shift from a bullish to a bearish trend. However, because it's based on the monthly timeframe, such a signal tends to have longer-term implications rather than immediate short-term effects.

• The monthly timeframe is one of the most significant for assessing long-term market structure.
• An underwater MACD cross may indicate that institutional or long-term holders are starting to sell or reduce positions.
• This signal should not be viewed in isolation; it needs confirmation from price action and other indicators.

The Role of the Weekly Chart and the 60-Week Moving Average

While the monthly chart gives a macro view, the weekly chart provides intermediate-term insight. If the weekly MACD remains above the 60-week moving average, it could imply that despite long-term bearish pressure, the medium-term trend is still intact.

• The 60-week moving average acts as a key support/resistance level over extended periods.
• If the price remains above this average, it might suggest that buyers are still active in dips.
• A weekly chart showing strength while the monthly shows weakness creates a divergence scenario.

Combining Timeframes: Is It Bullish?

When analyzing whether a particular setup is bullish, it's essential to look at multiple timeframes together. The combination of a monthly MACD cross underwater with the weekly line above the 60-week moving average presents a mixed picture.

• The monthly signal indicates caution due to long-term bearishness.
• The weekly signal suggests resilience and potential continuation of the uptrend.
• In crypto markets, such setups often lead to consolidation phases before a decisive breakout or breakdown.

Critical Insight: This combination does not automatically confirm a bullish trend. It reflects conflicting signals across different time horizons, requiring deeper analysis of volume, order flow, and macroeconomic conditions.

Historical Precedents in Cryptocurrency Markets

Looking back at previous cycles in the crypto market, similar patterns have occurred during transition phases between bull and bear markets. For instance:

• In early 2018, after Bitcoin reached its all-time high, the monthly MACD turned bearish while some altcoins still showed weekly strength.
• During late 2020, the opposite happened — the monthly MACD was bullish while weekly charts were consolidating.
• Such historical patterns show that divergences between timeframes are common and often precede major moves.

Key Takeaway: Historical data supports the idea that conflicting MACD signals across timeframes do not guarantee direction but highlight uncertainty and the need for careful risk management.

Practical Steps for Traders Interpreting This Signal

Traders who encounter this setup should take a structured approach to evaluate their position:

• Analyze Volume: Look for increasing or decreasing volume on both monthly and weekly charts to confirm strength or weakness.
• Monitor Key Levels: Identify critical support and resistance zones around the 60-week moving average.
• Use Additional Indicators: Incorporate RSI, Fibonacci retracements, or On-Balance Volume (OBV) to filter out false signals.
• Set Clear Stop Losses: Given the mixed signals, define your maximum risk tolerance clearly.

Actionable Tip: Use a watchlist to track assets exhibiting this pattern and wait for a breakout or breakdown confirmation before taking action.

Frequently Asked Questions

Q1: Can I trade solely based on the MACD crossover across timeframes?

No, the MACD should be used in conjunction with other tools like volume analysis, price action, and moving averages for better accuracy.

Q2: What’s the significance of the 60-week moving average compared to shorter ones?

The 60-week MA represents the long-term trend and often acts as a strong support during corrections, especially in mature assets like Bitcoin.

Q3: How often do these mixed MACD signals occur in crypto markets?

They are relatively common during transitional phases and can appear several times during a single market cycle.

Q4: Should I close my position if the monthly MACD turns bearish?

Not necessarily. Evaluate the weekly and daily charts, along with your personal risk profile, before making any decisions.