Is the monthly moving average golden cross + the weekly line breaking through the annual line a signal to start the bull market?

A monthly golden cross and weekly breakout above the annual line may signal a potential bull market, but confirmation through volume, on-chain data, and macro trends is essential for reliable entry.

Jul 04, 2025 at 07:28 am

Understanding the Monthly Moving Average Golden Cross

A golden cross occurs when a short-term moving average crosses above a long-term moving average, indicating a potential bullish trend. In the context of the monthly moving average golden cross, traders typically observe the 50-month moving average crossing above the 200-month moving average.

This phenomenon is considered significant in technical analysis because it suggests a shift from a bearish to a bullish phase over the long term. Historically, such crossovers have preceded major bull markets in various financial assets, including cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum.

However, it’s crucial to understand that while this signal can be powerful, it isn’t foolproof. The monthly golden cross should be analyzed alongside other indicators and market conditions before concluding a new bull market has begun.

Important: A monthly golden cross often lags behind price action due to its long-term nature, so it may not capture early entries.

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Weekly Price Breaking Through the Annual Line

The concept of the weekly price breaking through the annual line refers to the closing price of a cryptocurrency surpassing its 52-week (annual) moving average or high point. This event is seen as a sign of strong momentum and growing investor confidence.

In practice, this means that after a prolonged consolidation or downtrend, the asset’s price begins to rise consistently, clearing resistance levels tied to the annual timeframe. Traders view this breakout as a confirmation of renewed strength, especially if accompanied by increased volume.

For example, if Bitcoin's weekly candle closes above its 52-week moving average, and this coincides with rising on-chain activity and positive macroeconomic signals, it strengthens the case for a new bull run.

Important: Volume plays a critical role here — a breakout without significant volume may indicate a false signal.

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Historical Precedents in Cryptocurrency Markets

Looking back at previous cycles in the crypto market, there are instances where both the monthly golden cross and the weekly price breaking through the annual line occurred simultaneously before major rallies.

During the 2017 bull run, Bitcoin experienced a golden cross on the monthly chart around mid-2016, followed by a steady climb in price. By late 2017, BTC had surged to nearly $20,000. Similarly, in 2020, after the March crash, Bitcoin formed a golden cross and later broke out above its annual resistance, leading to a rally that peaked near $65,000 in 2021.

These patterns didn’t guarantee immediate upward movement but acted as leading indicators of long-term trends. However, each cycle differs based on macroeconomic factors, regulatory changes, and adoption rates, which must be taken into account.

Important: Historical performance doesn't guarantee future results, but it provides a framework for understanding market psychology.

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Combining Both Signals: Is It Enough?

While both the monthly golden cross and the weekly breakout above the annual line are strong signals individually, their combination increases the likelihood of a sustained bull market. Still, they should not be used in isolation.

Traders should also consider:

• On-chain metrics such as large whale accumulation, exchange inflows/outflows, and network activity
• Macroeconomic indicators like inflation rates, interest rate decisions, and global economic sentiment
• Sentiment analysis via social media, Google Trends, and derivatives funding rates

If these additional factors align with the technical signals, then the probability of a new bull market increases significantly.

Important: Always combine technical signals with fundamental and sentiment-based data for a holistic view.

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Practical Steps to Confirm a Bull Market Signal

To determine whether the combined signals indicate the start of a bull market, follow these steps:

• • Monitor the monthly charts: Check if the 50-period moving average crosses above the 200-period moving average and remains above for at least two consecutive months.
  • Analyze weekly candles: Observe whether the weekly close breaks and holds above the 52-week moving average or high, preferably with increased volume.
  • Check on-chain behavior: Use tools like Glassnode or CryptoQuant to assess whether large holders are accumulating or distributing coins.
  • Evaluate macro conditions: Look at Federal Reserve policies, inflation trends, and geopolitical events that might influence capital flows into crypto.
  • Watch social sentiment: Track Twitter trends, Reddit discussions, and mainstream media coverage for signs of growing retail interest.

Only when multiple layers confirm the same directional bias should traders begin considering a full-scale entry into risk-on positions.

Important: Avoid FOMO trading — wait for confluence across multiple timeframes and data sources before making decisions.

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Frequently Asked Questions

Q: Can a golden cross occur during a bear market?

Yes, a golden cross can appear even in a bear market. While it is generally a bullish signal, it may fail if broader market conditions remain unfavorable. It's essential to analyze it within the context of other indicators and fundamentals.

Q: What is the difference between a golden cross and a death cross?

A golden cross happens when a short-term moving average rises above a long-term one, signaling bullish momentum. Conversely, a death cross occurs when the short-term moving average falls below the long-term one, suggesting bearish momentum.

Q: How reliable is the 52-week breakout as a standalone signal?

The 52-week breakout is more reliable when confirmed by volume and other supporting factors. As a standalone tool, it can produce false positives, especially in volatile markets like cryptocurrencies.

Q: Should I buy immediately when both signals appear together?

Not necessarily. While the combination enhances the signal’s strength, entering without confirming volume, on-chain support, or favorable macro conditions can be risky. Wait for pullbacks or retests before committing capital.