Can the MACD column turning from negative to positive be regarded as a long signal?

A positive MACD histogram signals rising bullish momentum, but confirmation from price action or other indicators is crucial for reliable trading decisions in volatile crypto markets.

Jun 18, 2025 at 10:49 pm

Understanding the MACD Indicator

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is a widely used technical analysis tool in cryptocurrency trading. It consists of three main components: the MACD line, the signal line, and the MACD histogram (also known as the MACD column). The MACD line is calculated by subtracting the 26-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) from the 12-period EMA. The signal line is typically a 9-period EMA of the MACD line. The histogram represents the difference between the MACD line and the signal line.

When the MACD histogram transitions from negative to positive territory, it indicates that the MACD line has crossed above the signal line. This crossover is often interpreted as a sign of increasing bullish momentum. However, whether this shift can be considered a reliable long signal in crypto markets depends on several factors.

Interpreting the Histogram Flip from Negative to Positive

A change in the MACD histogram from negative to positive visually signals that the short-term average (12-period EMA) has moved above the long-term average (26-period EMA), relative to the signal line. In practical terms, this means:

• Bullish pressure is building.
• The downward trend may be losing strength.
• A potential reversal could be underway.

In cryptocurrency markets, which are highly volatile and influenced by sentiment, such a transition might suggest that buyers are gaining control. However, it's crucial to note that this alone does not guarantee a profitable trade. Traders should look for confirmation from other indicators or price action before entering a long position.

Using the MACD Histogram in Crypto Trading Strategies

Many traders use the MACD histogram turning positive as part of a broader strategy. Here’s how some incorporate it into their decision-making process:

• Look for divergence: If the price is making lower lows but the MACD histogram is making higher lows, it may indicate a hidden bullish divergence.
• Combine with support levels: A histogram flip at a key support level increases the probability of a successful long entry.
• Volume confirmation: An increase in volume during the histogram flip adds weight to the potential bullish reversal.
• Candlestick patterns: Bullish candlestick formations like hammers or engulfing candles near the histogram shift provide additional confirmation.

Traders who rely solely on the histogram without considering these elements risk acting on false signals, especially in choppy or sideways market conditions.

How to Visually Identify and Confirm the Histogram Signal

To effectively identify when the MACD histogram turns from negative to positive, follow these steps:

• Open your preferred charting platform (e.g., TradingView or Binance’s native tools).
• Add the MACD indicator if it’s not already visible.
• Locate the histogram below the main price chart — it will appear as vertical bars oscillating around a zero line.
• Observe when the bars switch from red (negative) to green (positive).
• Ensure that the MACD line crosses above the signal line simultaneously — this confirms the histogram shift.
• Cross-check with the price chart to see if the histogram flip aligns with a recent low or bullish candle pattern.

This visual inspection helps traders avoid premature entries based on minor histogram fluctuations that don’t coincide with meaningful price movement.

Limitations and Risks of Relying Solely on the MACD Histogram

While the MACD histogram flipping from negative to positive can be a useful tool, it comes with limitations, especially in fast-moving crypto markets:

• Lagging nature: Since the MACD is based on EMAs, it inherently lags behind price action. By the time the histogram turns positive, a significant portion of the move may have already occurred.
• False signals in ranging markets: During consolidation phases, the histogram may flip multiple times without any substantial trend forming.
• Whipsaws in volatile assets: Cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin or altcoins can experience rapid reversals after brief bullish signals, leading to losses if stop-losses aren't properly placed.
• No context about volatility or fundamentals: The histogram doesn’t account for macroeconomic news, exchange listings, or regulatory developments that can dramatically impact prices.

Therefore, while the histogram flip may serve as a potential long signal, it should never be used in isolation without additional filters or confirmations.

Practical Steps to Incorporate the Histogram Signal into a Trading Plan

For traders looking to integrate the MACD histogram turning positive into their crypto trading plan, here’s a structured approach:

• Step 1: Set up the MACD correctly — Use default settings (12, 26, 9) unless you've backtested alternative values successfully.
• Step 2: Monitor histogram behavior — Watch for when the histogram starts to shrink in negative territory and eventually turns green.
• Step 3: Check alignment with trend lines — Ensure the histogram flip occurs within a larger bullish context or at a support zone.
• Step 4: Wait for a breakout or retest — Instead of entering immediately, wait for a confirmed breakout above resistance or a retest of support.
• Step 5: Use trailing stops or fixed targets — Protect gains by setting realistic take-profit levels and dynamic stop-loss mechanisms.

These steps help filter out noise and reduce the likelihood of entering trades based on misleading signals.

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: Does the MACD histogram turning positive always lead to a bullish trend?

A: No, it does not. While it suggests growing bullish momentum, the histogram can flip positive during consolidations or fakeouts. Confirmation through price action or other indicators is essential.

Q: Can I use the MACD histogram on all cryptocurrencies?

A: Yes, technically, the MACD histogram applies to all tradable assets including cryptocurrencies. However, its effectiveness may vary depending on the asset’s liquidity, volatility, and trading volume.

Q: Is there a way to reduce false signals when using the MACD histogram?

A: Combining the histogram with other tools like moving averages, RSI, or volume indicators can significantly reduce false positives. Also, applying it selectively during strong trending periods improves reliability.

Q: Should I enter a long trade immediately when the histogram turns positive?

A: Immediate entry can expose you to sudden reversals. Waiting for additional confirmation, such as a close above a resistance level or a bullish candlestick pattern, is generally safer.