How to buy the monthly moving average adhesion + weekly volume breakthrough + daily MACD second golden cross?

This crypto strategy combines monthly MA adhesion, weekly volume spikes, and a daily MACD second golden cross for high-probability buy signals across timeframes.

Jul 26, 2025 at 07:01 am

Understanding the Strategy Components

The trading strategy titled "monthly moving average adhesion + weekly volume breakthrough + daily MACD second golden cross" combines multiple technical indicators across different timeframes to identify high-probability entry points in the cryptocurrency market. Each component plays a distinct role in filtering noise and confirming momentum. The monthly moving average adhesion refers to price action where the current price is closely hugging or retesting a long-term moving average—typically the 200-day or 12-month moving average—indicating potential support or resistance. This condition suggests market consolidation or stabilization after a prolonged trend.

The weekly volume breakthrough occurs when trading volume on the weekly chart spikes significantly above its average, often signaling institutional or large-scale participation. This surge can confirm the legitimacy of a price move, reducing the chance of a false breakout. Volume is a critical confirmation tool, especially in volatile crypto markets where price manipulation is common. A volume spike on a weekly basis often precedes sustained directional movement.

The daily MACD second golden cross involves the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator on the daily chart. A "golden cross" happens when the MACD line crosses above the signal line, indicating bullish momentum. A second golden cross means this bullish crossover has occurred more than once after a pullback, suggesting renewed strength rather than a one-time bounce. This repetition increases confidence in the sustainability of the upward trend.

Setting Up Your Charting Platform

To execute this strategy, you need a reliable cryptocurrency charting platform such as TradingView, Binance Trading Terminal, or Bybit's Advanced Chart. Begin by opening a multi-timeframe chart layout. Set three separate panels: one for monthly, one for weekly, and one for daily data. Ensure each chart is set to candlestick mode with volume displayed at the bottom.

On the monthly chart, add a 200-day simple moving average (SMA). Adjust the chart to display logarithmic scale if analyzing long-term assets like Bitcoin or Ethereum. Observe whether the current price is touching, retesting, or trading within 2% of the 200-day SMA—this qualifies as adhesion. Enable alerts for price proximity to this level.

On the weekly chart, apply a volume oscillator and set a baseline average over the past 20 weeks. Look for volume bars that exceed 1.5 times the 20-week average. This qualifies as a breakthrough. Use the platform’s annotation tools to mark such spikes. You may also overlay a volume-weighted moving average (VWMA) to smooth out noise.

On the daily chart, add the MACD indicator with standard settings (12, 26, 9). Wait for the MACD line (blue) to cross above the signal line (orange). After a pullback where the lines diverge again, watch for a second crossover in the same direction. Confirm that the histogram turns positive and expands after the second cross.

Entry Signal Confirmation Process

All three conditions must be met simultaneously to trigger a valid buy signal. The process is strict to avoid false entries. Check the following conditions:

• The monthly price is within 2% of the 200-day SMA, showing adhesion.
• The latest weekly candle shows volume 1.5x higher than the 20-week average, confirming breakout participation.
• The daily MACD has formed a second golden cross after a prior bullish signal and pullback.

When all are true, prepare for entry. Do not act on partial signals. For example, a second MACD cross without volume confirmation is insufficient. Similarly, high volume without price adhesion lacks foundational support.

Use order types wisely. Place a limit order slightly above the daily candle’s close to avoid slippage. Set the order to execute only if the next candle opens with bullish momentum. Avoid market orders during high volatility.

Exchange Selection and Account Setup

Choose a regulated cryptocurrency exchange with strong liquidity and advanced charting tools. Recommended platforms include Binance, Kraken Pro, and Bybit. Ensure your account is fully verified and two-factor authentication (2FA) is enabled. Deposit funds into your spot wallet—preferably in USDT or BTC to reduce conversion fees.

Navigate to the trading pair you’re analyzing, such as BTC/USDT or ETH/USDT. Confirm that the pair has monthly and weekly candle data available. Some altcoins may lack long-term data, so this strategy works best with top 20 market cap coins.

Enable price alerts for the 200-day SMA on the monthly chart. Set up volume alerts on the weekly timeframe. Use the exchange’s API or third-party tools like 3Commas or Cryptohopper to automate signal monitoring if manual tracking is impractical.

Risk Management and Position Sizing

Even with a robust signal, risk must be controlled. Allocate no more than 2–5% of your total portfolio to a single trade using this strategy. Determine your entry price, stop-loss, and take-profit before placing the order.

Set the stop-loss below the recent swing low on the daily chart, or 3–5% below entry, whichever is wider. This protects against sudden reversals. Use a trailing stop if the trade moves favorably.

For take-profit, consider a risk-reward ratio of at least 1:3. For example, if risking $100, aim for $300 profit. You may split the position: take 50% off at 1:2, and let the rest run with a trailing stop.

Avoid leveraged trading with this strategy unless you are experienced. Leverage amplifies both gains and losses, and the multi-week confirmation cycle may lead to extended exposure.

Frequently Asked Questions

What if the second MACD golden cross happens but volume hasn’t spiked yet?

Wait for the next weekly candle to close. If volume remains below the 1.5x threshold, the signal is incomplete. Do not enter. The volume confirmation must come from a closed weekly candle, not an ongoing one.

Can this strategy be applied to altcoins with less than one year of data?

No. Coins without 12 months of historical data cannot form a reliable 200-day SMA. The monthly adhesion condition cannot be validated. Stick to assets with at least 18–24 months of price history.

How do I adjust the MACD settings for different cryptocurrencies?

The standard (12, 26, 9) settings are optimal for daily charts. Avoid customization unless backtesting proves a variant works consistently. Changing parameters may lead to premature or false signals.

Is it necessary to monitor all three timeframes every day?

Yes. The daily MACD condition changes frequently. Set up email or mobile alerts for MACD crossovers and volume spikes. Use TradingView alerts linked to your phone to stay updated without constant chart watching.