Break through the half-year line with large volume + step back to confirm the buying point with shrinking volume

A breakout above the 180-day MA on high volume, followed by a pullback with shrinking volume, signals a strong bullish trend in crypto markets.

Jul 27, 2025 at 01:07 am

Understanding the Half-Year Line in Cryptocurrency Trading

The half-year line refers to a significant moving average that spans 180 trading days, commonly used by technical analysts to identify long-term trends in cryptocurrency price movements. This line acts as both a support and resistance level, depending on the current market sentiment. When a cryptocurrency’s price breaks through the half-year line, it often signals a potential shift in market dynamics. This breakout becomes more meaningful when accompanied by large trading volume, indicating strong participation from market participants. A surge in volume during the breakout suggests that institutional or large retail investors are entering the market, reinforcing the validity of the trend change. Traders closely monitor such events because they can mark the beginning of a new bullish phase after a prolonged consolidation or downtrend.

Significance of Large Volume During the Breakout

Volume plays a crucial role in confirming the strength of a price movement. A breakout from the half-year line on high volume increases the probability that the move is sustainable. Low-volume breakouts are often considered false signals and may result in a quick reversal. In contrast, large volume indicates conviction behind the price action. For example, if Bitcoin’s price moves above its 180-day moving average with volume exceeding the 30-day average by 50% or more, it is viewed as a strong bullish signal. This kind of volume spike can be observed on trading platforms like Binance, Coinbase Pro, or TradingView. To verify volume authenticity, traders should check multiple timeframes—such as the 4-hour and daily charts—to ensure consistency in volume patterns. It is also essential to compare the current volume with historical volume levels during previous breakouts to assess relative strength.

Step Back to the Breakout Level: A Confirmation Signal

After a breakout on high volume, the market often experiences a pullback or retest of the breakout level. This step back is not a sign of weakness but rather a natural consolidation phase. During this phase, the former resistance (now support) is tested. If the price holds above the half-year line during this retest, it confirms the level’s transformation into support. The most reliable confirmation occurs when this pullback happens on shrinking volume. Shrinking volume during the retest indicates reduced selling pressure and a lack of aggressive sellers stepping in to push the price lower. This scenario suggests that bears are losing control and bulls are likely to resume the upward momentum. Traders should watch for candlestick patterns such as bullish engulfing or hammer formations during this retest to further validate the buying opportunity.

How to Identify Shrinking Volume Accurately

Accurately measuring shrinking volume requires careful observation of volume bars on a price chart. Most trading platforms display volume as vertical bars beneath the price chart. After a high-volume breakout, the subsequent candles during the pullback should show progressively smaller volume bars. For instance, if the breakout candle had a volume of 10,000 BTC traded, the next few candles should show volumes of 7,000, 5,000, and eventually 3,000 BTC or less. This downward trend in volume confirms weakening bearish momentum. To enhance accuracy, traders can apply a volume moving average (e.g., 10-period) to smooth out fluctuations and identify the trend more clearly. Additionally, comparing the current volume to the average volume over the past 20 periods helps determine whether the shrinkage is significant. Tools like TradingView’s volume profile can also highlight areas of high and low volume concentration, aiding in confirmation.

Setting Up the Trade: Entry, Stop-Loss, and Position Size

Once the breakout and retest conditions are met, traders can prepare to enter the market. The ideal entry point is when the price bounces off the half-year line during the pullback, supported by shrinking volume and a bullish candlestick pattern. For example:

• Wait for the price to touch or slightly dip below the 180-day MA
• Confirm that volume is decreasing compared to the breakout
• Look for a close above the low of the pullback candle
• Enter a long position on the next bullish candle

A stop-loss should be placed just below the recent swing low formed during the pullback, typically 2% to 3% under the entry price, to minimize risk. Position size should be determined based on risk tolerance—never risk more than 1% to 2% of the trading account on a single trade. For instance, if the account size is $10,000 and the risk per trade is 1%, the maximum loss should be $100. If the stop-loss is 3% below entry, the position size would be approximately $3,333 (100 / 0.03). This disciplined approach ensures long-term sustainability in volatile crypto markets.

Monitoring Multiple Timeframes for Confirmation

To increase the reliability of the signal, traders should analyze multiple timeframes. While the daily chart may show a breakout above the half-year line, the 4-hour and 1-hour charts can provide additional context. On the 4-hour chart, look for the price to hold above the 180-period MA and for the Relative Strength Index (RSI) to remain above 50, indicating bullish momentum. The 1-hour chart can help fine-tune the entry by identifying short-term support levels or Fibonacci retracement zones (such as 61.8%) where the pullback might find support. Volume analysis should be consistent across all timeframes—shrinking volume on lower timeframes during the retest strengthens the case for a valid setup. Platforms like Binance Futures or Bybit allow traders to view volume and moving averages simultaneously across different intervals.

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: Can the half-year line be used on altcoins, or is it only effective for Bitcoin?

Yes, the half-year line is applicable to altcoins as well. While Bitcoin tends to have more reliable technical patterns due to higher liquidity, major altcoins like Ethereum, Binance Coin, and Solana also exhibit meaningful reactions to the 180-day moving average. However, due to lower liquidity and higher volatility, altcoins may experience more false breakouts, so volume confirmation becomes even more critical.

Q: What if the price breaks the half-year line but volume is average, not large?

A breakout on average volume is considered less reliable. It may indicate lack of strong buying interest and could result in a fakeout. Traders should avoid taking positions based on such breakouts unless there is additional confirmation from other indicators like MACD crossover or institutional on-chain activity.

Q: How long should I wait for the pullback after the breakout?

There is no fixed time limit, but most valid pullbacks occur within 5 to 15 trading days after the breakout. If the price continues to rise without a retest, it may indicate strong momentum, but the opportunity for a low-risk entry diminishes. Patience is key—waiting for the retest with shrinking volume increases the probability of a successful trade.

Q: Can on-chain data support this technical setup?

Yes, on-chain metrics like exchange netflow and wallet accumulation can complement this strategy. For example, if large addresses are accumulating coins while the price retests the half-year line, it adds confidence to the bullish outlook. Tools like Glassnode or CryptoQuant provide such data for verification.