VanEck 的 2050 年比特币价格目标为 290 万美元：投机预测

VanEck 的 2050 年比特币价格目标为 290 万美元，其基础是比特币成为全球金融体系中的重要参与者

VanEck’s digital assets research team recently outlined a scenario where Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) could reach an astronomical price of $2.9 million per coin by 2050. Their valuation model is based on the premise that Bitcoin will become an integral part of the International Monetary System, gaining significant market share from the Principal Four currencies (USD, EUR, JPY, GBP). Here are the key highlights from their research paper.

VanEck 的数字资产研究团队最近概述了一种情景，即到 2050 年，比特币（CRYPTO：BTC）的价格可能会达到每枚 290 万美元的天文数字。他们的估值模型基于比特币将成为国际货币体系不可或缺的一部分的前提，从四种主要货币（美元、欧元、日元、英镑）获得重要的市场份额。以下是他们研究论文的主要亮点。

VanEck's Key Assumptions

VanEck 的关键假设

VanEck’s economists begin by highlighting several key assumptions that underpin their Bitcoin valuation model. They posit that:

VanEck 的经济学家首先强调了支撑其比特币估值模型的几个关键假设。他们认为：

1. Cross-border payments will increase substantially, driven by rising global trade and world GDP.

1. 在全球贸易和世界GDP增长的推动下，跨境支付将大幅增长。

2. The Principal Four currencies will experience a collective 20% market share decline.

2. 主要四种货币的市场份额将集体下降 20%。

3. During this shift, the Chinese renminbi, Bitcoin, emerging market currencies, and gold will gain that market share.

3. 在这一转变中，人民币、比特币、新兴市场货币和黄金将获得市场份额。

4. Of the new entrants, Bitcoin will capture 10% of cross-border payments and 5% of domestic trade.

4. 在新进入者中，比特币将占据跨境支付的 10% 和国内贸易的 5%。

5. Central banks will allocate 2.5% of their assets to Bitcoin by 2050.

5. 到 2050 年，各国央行将把 2.5% 的资产分配给比特币。

6. Due to Bitcoin's scarcity and store-of-value properties, long-term investors will effectively remove 85% of the total supply from circulation.

6. 由于比特币的稀缺性和价值储存特性，长期投资者将有效地从流通中撤出总供应量的 85%。

VanEck's Valuation Methodology

VanEck 的估值方法

VanEck's model employs a straightforward velocity of money equation that incorporates three crucial components:

VanEck 的模型采用了一个简单的货币流通速度方程，其中包含三个关键组成部分：

1. The total value of goods, services, and assets being exchanged (broad money definition: M2 x velocity).

1. 所交换的商品、服务和资产的总价值（广义货币定义：M2 x 流通速度）。

2. The frequency at which a unit of currency is used to purchase goods, services, or assets (velocity of money).

2. 使用货币单位购买商品、服务或资产的频率（货币流通速度）。

3. The total stock of a currency or monetary asset (money supply).

3. 货币或货币资产的总存量（货币供应量）。

The team commenced by estimating global trade and world GDP based on 2023 baseline figures and growth projections. Subsequently, they calculated Bitcoin's potential share of cross-border payments relative to other currencies used in international trade.

该团队首先根据 2023 年基准数据和增长预测估算全球贸易和世界 GDP。随后，他们计算了比特币相对于国际贸易中使用的其他货币在跨境支付中的潜在份额。

VanEck projects that the Principal Four currencies will experience a 20% market share decline, with the Chinese renminbi, Bitcoin, emerging market currencies, and gold gaining that market share. In this scenario, Bitcoin is expected to capture 10% of cross-border payments and 5% of domestic trade.

VanEck 预计，四种主要货币的市场份额将下降 20%，而人民币、比特币、新兴市场货币和黄金将获得这一市场份额。在这种情况下，比特币预计将占据跨境支付的 10% 和国内贸易的 5%。

The model assumes that central banks will hold 2.5% of their assets in Bitcoin by 2050. Additionally, due to its store-of-value properties, 85% of Bitcoin's supply is expected to be effectively removed from circulation by long-term investors.

该模型假设到 2050 年，各国央行将持有 2.5% 的资产为比特币。此外，由于其价值储存特性，预计 85% 的比特币供应量将被长期投资者有效地退出流通。

Using these assumptions and a projected Bitcoin velocity of 1.5, VanEck's model arrives at a valuation of $2.9 million per Bitcoin in 2050. This would represent approximately 1.66% of all financial assets, compared to an estimated 0.1% share today.

使用这些假设和预计的 1.5 比特币流通速度，VanEck 的模型得出 2050 年每个比特币的估值为 290 万美元。这将约占所有金融资产的 1.66%，而目前估计的份额为 0.1%。

VanEck's Bitcoin Layer-2 Valuation

VanEck 的比特币 Layer-2 估值

VanEck also provides a framework for valuing Bitcoin Layer-2 (L2) solutions, which they believe will be crucial for scaling Bitcoin to achieve widespread adoption. Their approach projects the total addressable market (TAM) revenues of businesses that will utilize public smart contract platforms like Ethereum (CRYPTO: ETH) and Bitcoin L2s.

VanEck 还提供了一个评估比特币第 2 层 (L2) 解决方案的框架，他们认为这对于扩展比特币以实现广泛采用至关重要。他们的方法预测了将利用以太坊（加密货币：ETH）和比特币 L2 等公共智能合约平台的企业的总可寻址市场 (TAM) 收入。

Key points on VanEck’s L2 valuation:

VanEck L2 估值要点：

1. They estimate that businesses utilizing smart contract platforms will generate an estimated $2.2 trillion in TAM revenues by 2050.

1. 他们估计，到 2050 年，使用智能合约平台的企业将产生约 2.2 万亿美元的 TAM 收入。

2. Of this amount, Bitcoin L2s are expected to capture a 20% share, or roughly $440 billion in TAM revenues.

2. 其中，比特币 L2 预计将占据 20% 的份额，即大约 4400 亿美元的 TAM 收入。

3. Applying a multiple of 10x sales to account for the high growth potential and competitive advantage of Bitcoin L2s yields a valuation of $4.4 trillion.

3. 应用 10 倍销售额的倍数来考虑比特币 L2 的高增长潜力和竞争优势，得出的估值为 4.4 万亿美元。

Potential Risks to VanEck's Valuation Model

VanEck 估值模型的潜在风险

VanEck acknowledges several risks that could impact their Bitcoin valuation thesis, including:

VanEck 承认可能影响其比特币估值理论的一些风险，包括：

1. Technical limitations or regulatory hurdles may hinder Bitcoin's widespread adoption.

1. 技术限制或监管障碍可能会阻碍比特币的广泛采用。

2. Economic downturns or geopolitical shifts could alter the demand for Bitcoin.

2. 经济衰退或地缘政治变化可能会改变对比特币的需求。

3. Competition from other cryptocurrencies, central bank digital currencies, or alternative monetary systems could reduce Bitcoin's market share.

3.来自其他加密货币、央行数字货币或替代货币体系的竞争可能会减少比特币的市场份额。

4. Changes in monetary policy or macroeconomic conditions may affect the overall demand for货币.

4、货币政策或宏观经济状况的变化可能影响货币的总体需求。

Conclusion

结论

VanEck's $2.9 million Bitcoin price target for 2050 is based on a scenario where the cryptocurrency becomes a significant player in the global financial system. However, it's crucial to note that this projection is speculative and should not be taken as financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell Bitcoin. As disclosed in their blog post, VanEck holds positions in Bitcoin, which could influence their outlook.

VanEck 的 2050 年比特币价格目标为 290 万美元，其基础是加密货币成为全球金融体系中的重要参与者。然而，值得注意的是，这一预测是推测性的，不应被视为财务建议或购买或出售比特币的建议。正如他们在博客文章中所披露的，VanEck 持有比特币头寸，这可能会影响他们的前景。

The valuation model presented is based on numerous assumptions and simulations that may not account for all potential risks or factors affecting Bitcoin's future performance.

所提出的估值模型基于大量假设和模拟，可能无法解释影响比特币未来表现的所有潜在风险或因素。

The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile and unpredictable

加密货币市场高度波动且不可预测