Shiba Inu（Shib）价格预测：Memecoin的两个月范围内是否会突破？

流行的Memecoin目前正在交易两个月范围内，显示出混合信号，因为它最近滑到了关键支持水平以下。

Shiba Inu (SHIB) is currently trading within a two-month range formation, showing mixed signals as it recently slipped below a key support level.

Shiba INU（SHIB）目前正在交易两个月的构造范围内，显示出混合信号，因为它最近滑到了关键支持水平以下。

The cryptocurrency, which trades at $0.0000129, has experienced a slight dip of 0.4% from its intra-day high. Technical data suggests that bears have been gaining control in recent days.

该加密货币的交易价格为0.0000129美元，与日期高点相比，略有下跌0.4％。技术数据表明，最近几天熊已经获得了控制。

The memecoin failed to defend its mid-range support at $0.0000129, indicating that it may be more likely to fall toward range lows than push toward range highs in the short term. This breakdown follows what has been a challenging period for SHIB holders.

该纪念物未能以0.0000129美元的速度捍卫其中距离支持，这表明它可能更有可能落在射程低的情况下，而不是在短期内推向范围高。这种崩溃遵循了希伯持有人的挑战时期。

However, despite these bearish short-term signals, not all metrics paint a negative picture for the popular token.

但是，尽管这些看跌的短期信号，但并非所有指标都为受欢迎的令牌描绘了负面的图片。

Exchange Net Position Change has remained negative since January, suggesting that more tokens are leaving exchanges than entering them. This pattern typically indicates reduced selling pressure and ongoing accumulation, contrasting with the high exchange inflows seen in December that marked the rally’s top.

自1月份以来，交换净位置变化一直是负面的，这表明要离开交流的代币要比进入交流更多。这种模式通常表明销售压力和持续的积累降低，与12月所看到的高交换流入形成对比，这标志着拉力赛的顶部。

Recent funding rate data shows an increase in bearish sentiment, with rates dropping below zero.

最近的资金率数据显示看跌情绪的增加，率降至零以下。

Simultaneously, Open Interest has fallen since April 26, presenting a mixed bag of signals. High Open Interest usually signifies strong bullish conviction, while decreasing Open Interest suggests traders are closing their positions and reducing overall market optimism.

同时，自4月26日以来，开放兴趣就下降了，发出了一袋信号。高开放兴趣通常表示强烈的看涨信念，同时减少开放兴趣表明交易者正在关闭其立场并减少整体市场乐观。

Long-Term Holder Growth

长期持有人的增长

On-chain analysis reveals encouraging trends for SHIB’s longer-term outlook. The number of long-term holders—those who have held SHIB for over a year—has steadily increased since mid-2022 and continues to rise into 2025, according to data from IntoTheBlock.

链分析揭示了SHIB长期前景的令人鼓舞的趋势。根据Intotheblock的数据，自2022年中期以来，长期持有人的数量稳步增加，并一直稳步增加，并继续增加到2025年。

This growth in long-term holders is particularly important as these investors typically reduce overall selling pressure, helping maintain price stability.

长期持有人的这种增长尤其重要，因为这些投资者通常会降低总体销售压力，从而有助于维持价格稳定。

Meanwhile, short-term traders (holding less than a month) have decreased by 36.5%, suggesting a shift away from purely speculative behavior.

同时，短期交易者（持有少于一个月）减少了36.5％，这表明从纯粹的投机行为转变。

Medium-term investors, or “cruisers” with holding periods between one and twelve months, have grown by 3.15%. This indicates more investors are adopting longer-term positions rather than seeking quick profits.

中期投资者或持有期限一到十二个月的“巡洋舰”增长了3.15％。这表明更多的投资者正在采用长期职位，而不是寻求快速利润。

Active addresses saw a surge in early May, though activity has since decreased. While consistent high activity might indicate sustained demand, sporadic spikes often point to selling pressure. When combined with exchange outflows, the current pattern could suggest a period of accumulation.

主动地址在5月初的激增，尽管活动已经减少。尽管一致的高活动可能表明需求持续，但零星的尖峰通常表明销售压力。当与交换流出结合使用时，当前模式可能表明一段时间的积累。

The mean coin age has lacked a strong uptrend over the past month, unlike the January-March period when steady increases signaled network-wide accumulation. Recent dormant circulation metrics show small waves of token movement, reflecting modest selling pressure on-chain.

在过去的一个月中，平均硬币年龄缺乏强大的上升趋势，这与1月至3月期间稳定增加了网络范围内的积累。最近休眠的循环指标显示，象征性运动的小波，反映了链上销售压力适中。

Technical analyst Javon Marks has made headlines with a bold forecast for SHIB, predicting a potential 528% surge that would take the token to $0.000081. This projection comes after SHIB successfully retested a breakout level following its rally to a seven-month high of $0.00003329 in December 2024.

技术分析师Javon Marks对Shib的大胆预测成为头条新闻，预测潜在的528％的速度将使代币达到0.000081美元。这项预测是在Shib在2024年12月的七个月高点上成功地重新测试了突破水平的七个月高点。

According to Marks, the subsequent pullback to $0.0000108 was part of a normal technical structure that sets the stage for a more substantial rally. A key factor behind this bullish outlook is the hidden bullish divergence forming on SHIB’s chart, which typically signals underlying strength even when short-term indicators show weakness.

根据Marks的说法，随后的回调到$ 0.0000108是正常技术结构的一部分，它为更实质性的集会奠定了基础。这种看涨前景背后的关键因素是在Shib图表上形成的隐藏的看涨差异，即使短期指标表现出弱点，也通常信号的强度信号。

Another factor contributing to positive sentiment is SHIB’s increasing token burn activity. Recent data from Shibburn shows a sharp rise in SHIB burns, with 2,219,043 tokens burned in 24 hours—a 278.42% increase. Over the past week, an even more impressive 313,950,965 tokens were removed from circulation, marking a 324.14% increase in the burn rate.

促成积极情绪的另一个因素是Shib的象征性燃烧活动的增加。什本（Shibburn）的最新数据显示，湿布燃烧急剧上升，24小时内燃烧了2,219,043个令牌，增长了278.42％。在过去的一周中，从循环中删除了更令人印象深刻的313,950,965个令牌，标志着燃烧率增加了324.14％。

The burn mechanism reduces SHIB’s circulating supply, which, when combined with consistent demand, can lead to upward price movement. As more tokens are burned, SHIB becomes scarcer, potentially supporting its long-term value if demand remains steady or increases.

燃烧机制减少了湿巾的循环供应，当结合一致的需求时，它会导致价格上升。随着越来越多的令牌燃烧，湿骨变得稀缺，如果需求保持稳定或增加，则可能支持其长期价值。

The 30-day MVRV ratio has returned to negative territory, which could be an early sign that selling pressure from short-term holders is waning. This metric often provides a window for consolidation and accumulation before a new price move begins.

30天的MVRV比率已恢复为负地区，这可能是一个早期的迹象，即卖出短期持有人的压力正在减弱。该指标通常为在新的价格移动开始之前提供了一个合并和积累的窗口。