散户投资者是否返回加密货币市场？比特币（BTC）超过$ 100,000，随着山寨币引起更多关注

加密市场表现出关于零售投资者参与的混合信号，尤其是当比特币超过100,000美元，诸如以太坊（Ethereum）之类的山寨币引起了人们的关注。

The crypto market has been showing mixed signals regarding retail investor participation, especially as Bitcoin price surpasses $100,000 and altcoins like Ethereum price draw increased attention.

加密市场一直在散户投资者参与方面表现出不同的信号，尤其是比特币价格超过100,000美元，而诸如以太坊价格（Ethereum Price）之类的山寨币引起了人们的关注。

Some experts, like S4mmyEth from Decentralized AI Research, believe that retail is coming back, while others, like Nic, co-founder of Coin Bureau, remain more skeptical and suggest that the recent bull market is being driven by institutions and whales.

一些专家，例如来自分散AI研究的S4MMYETH，认为零售业正在恢复，而其他专家（例如Coin Bureau的联合创始人Nic）仍然更加怀疑，并暗示最近的牛市是由机构和鲸鱼驱动的。

Let’s analyze the latest data and expert opinions to clarify the picture.

让我们分析最新数据和专家意见以澄清图片。

Mixed Signals About Retail Investor Presence

关于零售投资者存在的混合信号

S4mmyEth from Decentralized AI Research pointed out a notable indicator: a sharp rise in Google search interest for "Etherium" (a common misspelling of Ethereum) in Australia over the past 30 days.

来自分散AI研究的S4mmyeth指出了一个值得注意的指标：在过去30天中，澳大利亚的Google搜索兴趣（以太坊的常见拼写错误）急剧上升。

“Retail is coming. There’s been a spike in Google search trends for ‘Etherium’ rather than Ethereum,” S4mmy predicted.

S4MMY预测：“零售业即将到来。Google搜索趋势的趋势激增，而不是以太坊。”

Indeed, Google Trends data shows a significant increase at the end of April and the beginning of May, with peak interest on April 28 and May 5. S4mmy also noted similar spikes for other misspelled keywords like "Etherum," "Eferium," and "Ifirium." These trends suggest a wave of interest from users unfamiliar with the correct terminology—a common sign of retail investor activity.

的确，Google趋势数据显示在4月底和5月初，4月28日和5月5日的峰值兴趣都显着增加。S4mmy还指出，对于其他拼写错误的关键字，例如“ Etherum”，“ Etherum”，“ Eferium”，“ Eferium”和“ Ifirium”。这些趋势表明，不熟悉正确术语的用户的兴趣浪潮，这是散户投资者活动的常见迹象。

However, not everyone agrees with S4mmy’s optimistic prediction.

但是，并不是每个人都同意S4MMY的乐观预测。

In contrast, Nic, co-founder of Coin Bureau, had a different view. According to him, the recent surge in altcoin prices, including Ethereum, may be attributed to institutional investors or whales—those holding large amounts of crypto.

相比之下，硬币局联合创始人Nic具有不同的看法。据他介绍，包括以太坊在内的山寨币价格最近的上涨可能归因于机构投资者或鲸鱼，这些投资者或鲸鱼拥有大量加密。

Moreover, capital-allocated investors are showing a shift in sentiment, with increasing expectations for an upcoming altcoin season.

此外，资本分配的投资者正在表现出情感的转变，对即将到来的Altcoin赛季的期望不断提高。

“Retail isn’t here. This isn’t a retail-driven altcoin pump. It’s crypto natives chasing price & coming back for another run at altseason,” stated.

“零售业不在这里。这不是零售驱动的替代币泵。它是加密本地人追逐价格，并在Altseason又回来了。”

Recent reports from BeInCrypto also highlight this changing investor sentiment, which has been influenced by improving macroeconomic factors such as easing tariff tensions and a shift in the U.S. administration’s trade policy.

Beincrypto的最新报道还强调了这种不断变化的投资者情绪，这种情绪受到改善宏观经济因素的影响，例如缓解关税紧张局势和美国政府贸易政策的转变。

It’s not just Ethereum. Even Bitcoin lacks small-volume transactions, typically linked to retail investors.

这不仅仅是以太坊。即使是比特币也缺乏小体积交易，通常与散户投资者有关。

Data from CryptoQuant reveals that transactions between $0 and $10,000 haven’t increased significantly, even as Bitcoin crossed the $100,000 mark. This lack of activity in smaller transactions lends credence to the idea that the recent rally is being driven primarily by larger institutional investors or whales.

来自CryptoQuant的数据表明，即使比特币越过了100,000美元，交易在$ 0到10,000美元之间也没有大幅度增加。较小的交易中缺乏活动使人们对最近的集会主要是由较大的机构投资者或鲸鱼驱动的想法。

Furthermore, supporting the case for institutional involvement is the increasing volume of transactions at higher value tiers.

此外，支持机构参与的案例是较高价值层的交易量的增加。

According to CryptoQuant’s data, transactions in the $10 million and $100 million brackets have shown a more substantial uptrend. This pattern aligns with the known preferences of institutional investors, who typically execute trades in larger sizes.

根据CryptoQuant的数据，这笔1000万美元和1亿美元的交易显示出了更大的上升趋势。这种模式与机构投资者的已知偏好相吻合，这些偏好通常会以较大的规模执行交易。

Capital-allocated investors are also shifting their focus. After months of focusing on Bitcoin, there is now a clear change in sentiment, with investors showing increased interest in altcoins.

资本分配的投资者也在改变他们的重点。经过数月的专注于比特币，现在的情绪发生了明显的变化，投资者对AltCoins的兴趣增加了。

Recently, Ben Lilly, a capital-allocated investor and co-founder of DecentraWeb, shared his updated market outlook. In his analysis, he expressed that the current market conditions are becoming "unbearable for institutions."

最近，分散的投资者兼分散的共同创始人本·莉莉（Ben Lilly）分享了他最新的市场前景。在他的分析中，他表示当前的市场状况变得“对机构无法忍受”。

Pointing out the recent surge in altcoins, particularly Ethereum, which has seen a nearly 50% price increase in the past two months, Lilly noted that institutions are becoming increasingly uncomfortable with the lack of returns in their allocated capital.

莉莉指出，最近两个月的价格上涨了近50％的价格，该机构越来越多，由于其分配的资本缺乏回报，莉莉变得越来越不舒服。

As institutional investors manage large sums of capital, they are typically compensated based on the performance of their investments. In a market where one asset class, like equities or bonds, experiences significant gains while another, like crypto, shows limited returns, the lack of capital gains in one area will be taxed more heavily to compensate for the gains in another asset class.

随着机构投资者管理大量资本，通常会根据其投资的绩效进行补偿。在一个股票或债券（例如股票或债券）的市场中，经历了巨大的收益，而诸如加密货币（例如加密货币）的回报有限，一个地区缺乏资本收益将更加严重征税，以弥补另一个资产类别的收益。

This is where the concept of "capital-allocated investors" comes in. These investors, who are usually on a macro level and invest in various asset classes, are becoming restless as they observe the stellar performance of crypto in comparison to other markets.

这是“资本分配投资者”的概念。这些投资者通常处于宏观水平并投资各种资产类别，因为与其他市场相比，他们观察到加密货币的出色表现。

Specifically, Lilly highlighted that the TRX/USD chart has reached a "new magic number," indicating an impending shift in capital flows. Additionally, he pointed out the "absurd" volume on Binance in the LTC/USDT market, further suggesting a substantial influx of capital.

特别是，礼来（Lilly）强调，TRX/USD图表已达到“新魔术数字”，这表明资本流动即将发生变化。此外，他指出了LTC/USDT市场中融资的“荒谬”量，进一步表明资本大量涌入。

Moreover, Lilly's analysis indicated that capital-allocated investors are now shifting their attention and investing in altcoins in anticipation of an "alt season."

此外，礼来（Lilly）的分析表明，在预期“ ALT季节”的情况下，资本分配的投资者现在正在转移他们的注意力并投资于Altcoins。

This view was also shared by Nic, who noted that crypto natives, who had been following the price action closely, are now returning for another attempt at alt season.

尼克（Nic）也分享了这种观点，他指出，密切关注价格行动的加密货币本地人现在正在ALT季节再次尝试。

However, despite the recent price rallies, the absence of retail investors may make the uptrend unsustainable in the long run.

但是，尽管最近的价格集会，但从长远来看，散户投资者的缺席可能会导致上升趋势不可持续。

This was highlighted by Wu Blockchain’s latest report, which showed no signs of recovery in exchange

WU区块链的最新报告强调了这一点，该报告没有显示出恢复的迹象