散戶投資者是否返回加密貨幣市場？比特幣（BTC）超過$ 100,000，隨著山寨幣引起更多關注

加密市場表現出關於零售投資者參與的混合信號，尤其是當比特幣超過100,000美元，諸如以太坊（Ethereum）之類的山寨幣引起了人們的關注。

The crypto market has been showing mixed signals regarding retail investor participation, especially as Bitcoin price surpasses $100,000 and altcoins like Ethereum price draw increased attention.

加密市場一直在散戶投資者參與方面表現出不同的信號，尤其是比特幣價格超過100,000美元，而諸如以太坊價格（Ethereum Price）之類的山寨幣引起了人們的關注。

Some experts, like S4mmyEth from Decentralized AI Research, believe that retail is coming back, while others, like Nic, co-founder of Coin Bureau, remain more skeptical and suggest that the recent bull market is being driven by institutions and whales.

一些專家，例如來自分散AI研究的S4MMYETH，認為零售業正在恢復，而其他專家（例如Coin Bureau的聯合創始人Nic）仍然更加懷疑，並暗示最近的牛市是由機構和鯨魚驅動的。

Let’s analyze the latest data and expert opinions to clarify the picture.

讓我們分析最新數據和專家意見以澄清圖片。

Mixed Signals About Retail Investor Presence

關於零售投資者存在的混合信號

S4mmyEth from Decentralized AI Research pointed out a notable indicator: a sharp rise in Google search interest for "Etherium" (a common misspelling of Ethereum) in Australia over the past 30 days.

來自分散AI研究的S4mmyeth指出了一個值得注意的指標：在過去30天中，澳大利亞的Google搜索興趣（以太坊的常見拼寫錯誤）急劇上升。

“Retail is coming. There’s been a spike in Google search trends for ‘Etherium’ rather than Ethereum,” S4mmy predicted.

S4MMY預測：“零售業即將到來。Google搜索趨勢的趨勢激增，而不是以太坊。”

Indeed, Google Trends data shows a significant increase at the end of April and the beginning of May, with peak interest on April 28 and May 5. S4mmy also noted similar spikes for other misspelled keywords like "Etherum," "Eferium," and "Ifirium." These trends suggest a wave of interest from users unfamiliar with the correct terminology—a common sign of retail investor activity.

的確，Google趨勢數據顯示在4月底和5月初，4月28日和5月5日的峰值興趣都顯著增加。 S4mmy還指出，對於其他拼寫錯誤的關鍵字，例如“ Etherum”，“ Etherum”，“ Eferium”，“ Eferium”和“ Ifirium”。這些趨勢表明，不熟悉正確術語的用戶的興趣浪潮，這是散戶投資者活動的常見跡象。

However, not everyone agrees with S4mmy’s optimistic prediction.

但是，並不是每個人都同意S4MMY的樂觀預測。

In contrast, Nic, co-founder of Coin Bureau, had a different view. According to him, the recent surge in altcoin prices, including Ethereum, may be attributed to institutional investors or whales—those holding large amounts of crypto.

相比之下，硬幣局聯合創始人Nic具有不同的看法。據他介紹，包括以太坊在內的山寨幣價格最近的上漲可能歸因於機構投資者或鯨魚，這些投資者或鯨魚擁有大量加密。

Moreover, capital-allocated investors are showing a shift in sentiment, with increasing expectations for an upcoming altcoin season.

此外，資本分配的投資者正在表現出情感的轉變，對即將到來的Altcoin賽季的期望不斷提高。

“Retail isn’t here. This isn’t a retail-driven altcoin pump. It’s crypto natives chasing price & coming back for another run at altseason,” stated.

“零售業不在這裡。這不是零售驅動的替代幣泵。它是加密本地人追逐價格，並在Altseason又回來了。”

Recent reports from BeInCrypto also highlight this changing investor sentiment, which has been influenced by improving macroeconomic factors such as easing tariff tensions and a shift in the U.S. administration’s trade policy.

Beincrypto的最新報導還強調了這種不斷變化的投資者情緒，這種情緒受到改善宏觀經濟因素的影響，例如緩解關稅緊張局勢和美國政府貿易政策的轉變。

It’s not just Ethereum. Even Bitcoin lacks small-volume transactions, typically linked to retail investors.

這不僅僅是以太坊。即使是比特幣也缺乏小體積交易，通常與散戶投資者有關。

Data from CryptoQuant reveals that transactions between $0 and $10,000 haven’t increased significantly, even as Bitcoin crossed the $100,000 mark. This lack of activity in smaller transactions lends credence to the idea that the recent rally is being driven primarily by larger institutional investors or whales.

來自CryptoQuant的數據表明，即使比特幣越過了100,000美元，交易在$ 0到10,000美元之間也沒有大幅度增加。較小的交易中缺乏活動使人們對最近的集會主要是由較大的機構投資者或鯨魚驅動的想法。

Furthermore, supporting the case for institutional involvement is the increasing volume of transactions at higher value tiers.

此外，支持機構參與的案例是較高價值層的交易量的增加。

According to CryptoQuant’s data, transactions in the $10 million and $100 million brackets have shown a more substantial uptrend. This pattern aligns with the known preferences of institutional investors, who typically execute trades in larger sizes.

根據CryptoQuant的數據，這筆1000萬美元和1億美元的交易顯示出了更大的上升趨勢。這種模式與機構投資者的已知偏好相吻合，這些偏好通常會以較大的規模執行交易。

Capital-allocated investors are also shifting their focus. After months of focusing on Bitcoin, there is now a clear change in sentiment, with investors showing increased interest in altcoins.

資本分配的投資者也在改變他們的重點。經過數月的專注於比特幣，現在的情緒發生了明顯的變化，投資者對AltCoins的興趣增加了。

Recently, Ben Lilly, a capital-allocated investor and co-founder of DecentraWeb, shared his updated market outlook. In his analysis, he expressed that the current market conditions are becoming "unbearable for institutions."

最近，分散的投資者兼分散的共同創始人本·莉莉（Ben Lilly）分享了他最新的市場前景。在他的分析中，他表示當前的市場狀況變得“對機構無法忍受”。

Pointing out the recent surge in altcoins, particularly Ethereum, which has seen a nearly 50% price increase in the past two months, Lilly noted that institutions are becoming increasingly uncomfortable with the lack of returns in their allocated capital.

莉莉指出，最近兩個月的價格上漲了近50％的價格，該機構越來越多，由於其分配的資本缺乏回報，莉莉變得越來越不舒服。

As institutional investors manage large sums of capital, they are typically compensated based on the performance of their investments. In a market where one asset class, like equities or bonds, experiences significant gains while another, like crypto, shows limited returns, the lack of capital gains in one area will be taxed more heavily to compensate for the gains in another asset class.

隨著機構投資者管理大量資本，通常會根據其投資的績效進行補償。在一個股票或債券（例如股票或債券）的市場中，經歷了巨大的收益，而諸如加密貨幣（例如加密貨幣）的回報有限，一個地區缺乏資本收益將更加嚴重徵稅，以彌補另一個資產類別的收益。

This is where the concept of "capital-allocated investors" comes in. These investors, who are usually on a macro level and invest in various asset classes, are becoming restless as they observe the stellar performance of crypto in comparison to other markets.

這是“資本分配投資者”的概念。這些投資者通常處於宏觀水平並投資各種資產類別，因為與其他市場相比，他們觀察到加密貨幣的出色表現。

Specifically, Lilly highlighted that the TRX/USD chart has reached a "new magic number," indicating an impending shift in capital flows. Additionally, he pointed out the "absurd" volume on Binance in the LTC/USDT market, further suggesting a substantial influx of capital.

特別是，禮來（Lilly）強調，TRX/USD圖表已達到“新魔術數字”，這表明資本流動即將發生變化。此外，他指出了LTC/USDT市場中融資的“荒謬”量，進一步表明資本大量湧入。

Moreover, Lilly's analysis indicated that capital-allocated investors are now shifting their attention and investing in altcoins in anticipation of an "alt season."

此外，禮來（Lilly）的分析表明，在預期“ ALT季節”的情況下，資本分配的投資者現在正在轉移他們的注意力並投資於Altcoins。

This view was also shared by Nic, who noted that crypto natives, who had been following the price action closely, are now returning for another attempt at alt season.

尼克（Nic）也分享了這種觀點，他指出，密切關注價格行動的加密貨幣本地人現在正在ALT季節再次嘗試。

However, despite the recent price rallies, the absence of retail investors may make the uptrend unsustainable in the long run.

但是，儘管最近的價格集會，但從長遠來看，散戶投資者的缺席可能會導致上升趨勢不可持續。

This was highlighted by Wu Blockchain’s latest report, which showed no signs of recovery in exchange

WU區塊鏈的最新報告強調了這一點，該報告沒有顯示出恢復的跡象