减半后反弹：比特币飙升，创新成为未来驱动力

比特币第四次减半三十天后，其价格仍略高于事件发生后的价格。从历史上看，比特币在减半事件后的 180 天内经历了大幅价格上涨。尽管该资产今年已创下历史新高，但现货比特币 ETF 的更广泛采用和全球加速采用等因素可能会影响其未来价格。

Bitcoin's Ascendance: The Post-Halving Rally and Beyond

比特币的崛起：减半后的反弹及以后

As the dust settles from Bitcoin's fourth halving event, which transpired precisely thirty days ago on April 20th, the cryptocurrency community eagerly contemplates the asset's trajectory. Will it adhere to its customary post-halving upward surge, or will this cycle unfold differently?

比特币第四次减半事件发生在 30 天前的 4 月 20 日，随着比特币第四次减半事件尘埃落定，加密货币社区热切地思考该资产的发展轨迹。它会遵循减半后的惯例上涨势头，还是会以不同的方式展开这一周期？

Historically, Bitcoin's price has experienced "explosive gains" within 180 days of the halving event, which typically manifests around 30 days post-halving, according to Matthew Sigel, head of digital assets research at investment management firm VanEck.

投资管理公司 VanEck 数字资产研究主管 Matthew Sigel 表示，从历史上看，比特币价格在减半事件后 180 天内经历了“爆炸式上涨”，这通常在减半后 30 天左右显现。

However, this year has been marked by extraordinary circumstances. Not only has Bitcoin undergone its fourth halving, but it also scaled an all-time high of nearly $74,000 approximately a month prior to the event. This surge is largely attributed to the historic approval of eleven spot Bitcoin exchange traded funds (ETFs) in January. Last year, digital asset service provider Galaxy estimated the total addressable market size of a U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF to hover around $14 trillion within the first year of its inception.

然而，今年的情况非同寻常。比特币不仅经历了第四次减半，而且在减半事件发生前一个月左右，其价格还创下了近 74,000 美元的历史新高。这一激增很大程度上归因于 1 月份 11 只现货比特币交易所交易基金 (ETF) 的历史性批准。去年，数字资产服务提供商 Galaxy 估计，美国现货比特币 ETF 的潜在市场总规模在其成立的第一年内将徘徊在 14 万亿美元左右。

Today, Bitcoin's price stands at $67,000, marginally higher than its $65,000 valuation one day after the fourth halving. This suggests that Bitcoin may once again align with its historical pattern of upward momentum. Nevertheless, with the halving, all-time high, and ETF launches now behind us, it begs the question: what other factors could shape Bitcoin's future price trajectory?

如今，比特币的价格为 67,000 美元，略高于第四次减半一天后的 65,000 美元估值。这表明比特币可能再次符合其上涨势头的历史模式。然而，随着减半、创历史新高以及 ETF 的推出已经成为过去，这引出了一个问题：还有哪些因素可能影响比特币未来的价格轨迹？

"2024 to date has been characterized by price action analysts primarily focusing on headlines, institutional engagement metrics, and ETF flows, in addition to the negative supply shock induced by [the] halving," opines Christopher Calicott, managing director at Bitcoin venture capital firm Trammell Venture Partners, in an interview with Unchained.

比特币风险投资公司董事总经理克里斯托弗·卡利科特 (Christopher Caliccott) 表示：“2024 年迄今为止，价格走势分析师主要关注头条新闻、机构参与指标和 ETF 流量，此外还有减半引发的负面供应冲击。” Trammell Venture Partners 接受 Unchained 采访。

"What everyone seems to be uninterested in discussing at the moment is the meaningful long-term trend: persistent and accelerating global adoption of Bitcoin," he adds.

他补充道：“目前每个人似乎都没有兴趣讨论有意义的长期趋势：比特币在全球范围内的持续和加速采用。”

Accelerating Bitcoin Adoption

加速比特币的采用

One aspect that has historically distinguished Bitcoin from other cryptocurrencies is its unwavering focus on its dual roles as digital currency and digital gold. The network's community has cultivated a reputation for conservatism and risk aversion in its approach to protocol development.

比特币历史上区别于其他加密货币的一个方面是它坚定不移地专注于数字货币和数字黄金的双重角色。该网络社区在协议开发方法上树立了保守主义和规避风险的声誉。

This paradigm shifted last year with the introduction of the Ordinals protocol, a contentious innovation that enables the creation of Bitcoin-native non-fungible tokens (NFTs). Despite resistance from respected contributors like Luke Dashjr, the Ordinals protocol has gained traction and even spawned related projects such as fungible token standards like BRC-20 and, more recently, Runes.

去年，随着 Ordinals 协议的推出，这种模式发生了转变，这是一项有争议的创新，可以创建比特币原生的非同质代币（NFT）。尽管受到像 Luke Dashjr 这样受人尊敬的贡献者的抵制，Ordinals 协议还是获得了关注，甚至催生了相关项目，例如 BRC-20 等可替代代币标准以及最近的 Runes。

"I'm not sure creating a new fungible token protocol for Bitcoin is a good idea," Casey Rodarmor, the creator of Ordinals and Runes, wrote last year, before elaborating on his rationale for launching Runes.

“我不确定为比特币创建一个新的可替代代币协议是一个好主意，”Ordinals 和 Runes 的创建者 Casey Rodarmor 去年写道，然后详细阐述了他推出 Runes 的理由。

"Creating a good fungible token protocol for Bitcoin might bring significant transaction fee revenue, developer mindshare, and users to Bitcoin," Rodarmor wrote.

Rodarmor 写道：“为比特币创建一个良好的可替代代币协议可能会为比特币带来可观的交易费收入、开发者的关注度和用户。”

Indeed, Runes, which was launched in conjunction with the Bitcoin halving, appears to have been a major contributor to the record-setting $108 million in transaction revenue generated by miners that day.

事实上，随着比特币减半而推出的 Runes 似乎是当天矿工创造的创纪录的 1.08 亿美元交易收入的主要贡献者。

Bitcoin's Layer 2 Renaissance

比特币的 Layer 2 复兴

The advent of Ordinals has significantly increased Bitcoin transaction volume, raising scalability concerns.

序数的出现显着增加了比特币交易量，引发了对可扩展性的担忧。

One response to these concerns has been a flurry of activity in layer 2 network development. Bitcoin already boasts a functioning layer 2 solution called Lightning, designed to render transactions more affordable and expeditious. However, some have criticized Lightning as a failure, and a multitude of alternative solutions are currently in development.

对这些担忧的回应之一是第二层网络开发的一系列活动。比特币已经拥有名为闪电网络的功能性第 2 层解决方案，旨在使交易更加经济实惠和快捷。然而，一些人批评闪电网络是失败的，目前正在开发多种替代解决方案。

Unchained recently delved into this layer 2 phenomenon, which some hail as a "renaissance" in Bitcoin development.

Unchained 最近深入研究了这种第 2 层现象，一些人将其誉为比特币发展的“复兴”。

BitVM is one such renaissance project that aims to introduce smart contracts to Bitcoin. Its website asserts, "BitVM enables a free market of second layers, potentially scaling Bitcoin to billions of users."

BitVM 就是这样的复兴项目之一，旨在将智能合约引入比特币。其网站声称，“BitVM 实现了第二层自由市场，有可能将比特币扩展到数十亿用户。”

Robin Linus, the inventor of BitVM, shared with Unchained that he is developing a closely related layer 2 protocol called zkCoins, which will leverage a BitVM bridge to potentially enhance Bitcoin's throughput from 7 transactions per second (TPS) to over 100 TPS. It would also bolster privacy.

BitVM 的发明者 Robin Linus 向 Unchained 表示，他正在开发一种密切相关的第 2 层协议，称为 zkCoins，该协议将利用 BitVM 桥将比特币的吞吐量从每秒 7 笔交易 (TPS) 提高到超过 100 TPS。它还将增强隐私。

If BitVM can indeed scale Bitcoin even to a fraction of the "billions of users" it anticipates onboarding, while simultaneously increasing the dominant blockchain's capacity 14-fold via the ambitious zkCoins project, the resulting demand would likely have a significant bullish impact on BTC's price.

如果 BitVM 确实可以将比特币扩展到其预期的“数十亿用户”的一小部分，同时通过雄心勃勃的 zkCoins 项目将主导区块链的容量增加 14 倍，那么由此产生的需求可能会对 BTC 的价格产生重大的看涨影响。

To put this into perspective, as of June 2023, it is estimated that only 80-130 million individuals hold Bitcoin, according to bitcoin financial services firm River.

从这个角度来看，根据比特币金融服务公司 River 的数据，截至 2023 年 6 月，估计只有 80-1.3 亿人持有比特币。

"I believe this is the most exciting application of BitVM bridges," Linus said. "Together with Blockstream Research, I am working on a concrete implementation. Our white paper will be released at the end of this month."

“我相信这是 BitVM 桥接器最令人兴奋的应用，”Linus 说。 “我正在与 Blockstream Research 一起制定具体实施方案。我们的白皮书将于本月底发布。”

The significance of Linus's last statement cannot be overstated - most Bitcoin layer 2 solutions (with the exception of established platforms like Lightning and Blockstream's Liquid Network) are still in the conceptual stage and may never reach implementation.

Linus 最后声明的重要性怎么强调都不为过——大多数比特币第 2 层解决方案（除了 Lightning 和 Blockstream 的 Liquid Network 等成熟平台）仍处于概念阶段，可能永远无法实现。

Post-Halving Layer 2 Builder's Premium?

减半后 Layer 2 Builder 的溢价？

The jury is still out on whether Bitcoin will once again embark on a post-halving rally.

关于比特币是否会在减半后再次开始反弹，目前还没有定论。

However, investors will have a clearer indication of its trajectory in mid-October, approximately 180 days after the halving.

然而，投资者将在 10 月中旬（即减半后约 180 天）对其走势有更清晰的了解。

And if Bitcoin does indeed replicate that trend, projects like Ordinals, Runes, and BitVM, which are committed to building novel functionalities upon the foundation of the oldest blockchain, could play a pivotal role in fueling that upward ascent.

如果比特币确实复制了这一趋势，那么像 Ordinals、Runes 和 BitVM 这样致力于在最古老的区块链基础上构建新颖功能的项目可能会在推动这一上升过程中发挥关键作用。

Calicott aptly describes Bitcoin as "the asset for saving and...the network for building," adding that, "The technical components of the Bitcoin stack that are accelerating buildability are a force that will be reckoned with."

卡利科特恰当地将比特币描述为“用于储蓄的资产和……用于构建的网络”，并补充说，“比特币堆栈中加速可构建性的技术组件是一股不可忽视的力量。”